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Thread: How does the advantage on different TC be calculated?

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    How does the advantage on different TC be calculated?

    We often see in books that Hi-Lo players have roughly 0.5% advantage on TC +2, 1.0% on TC +3, 1.5% on TC +4, 2% on TC +5 at S17 tables. To achieve such advantage, what do players have to do? I mean, do players need to use full (or Illustrious 18) Hi-Lo index plays to get these results or just flat bet using Basic Strategy is sufficient?

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    There is IBA .initial betting advantage . We will have people answering soon.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Those numbers are just rough estimates. They don't correspond to any particular rule set or indices.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Very rough estimates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    We often see in books that Hi-Lo players have roughly 0.5% advantage on TC +2, 1.0% on TC +3, 1.5% on TC +4, 2% on TC +5 at S17 tables. To achieve such advantage, what do players have to do? I mean, do players need to use full (or Illustrious 18) Hi-Lo index plays to get these results or just flat bet using Basic Strategy is sufficient?
    Those as Norm says rough estimated edges are from knowing the true count and playing basic strategy alone, for only that one hand. What the player does with that information is their own choice. If the player bet up and down with the count and uses only basic strategy alone will get 87% of gain that is available from card counting and using strategy. Adding the Illustrious 18 would be a real smart move by gaining most of that 13% lost by not using it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Those as Norm says rough estimated edges are from knowing the true count and playing basic strategy alone, for only that one hand. What the player does with that information is their own choice. If the player bet up and down with the count and uses only basic strategy alone will get 87% of gain that is available from card counting and using strategy. Adding the Illustrious 18 would be a real smart move by gaining most of that 13% lost by not using it.
    Wow. This sure puts the argument to only learn the I18 and Fab4 in perspective. Those that suggest this (they are not many) use the argument you get 70% of the gain from index plays with these 22 indices so you shouldn't bother with the other 30%. Yet they learned the 22 indices that only add 9.1% (.13*70%) to what BS and bet sizing by count gets. How is 30% addition not worth it but 9.1% is? I guess if they want to be consistent on what is worth it they should learn more indices or just play BS. Like DonS said the I18 and Fab4 was just intended to tell you where to start learning indices, not where to finish.

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    Tthree, I was just answering the question that was asked byBJGenius007 the way he wrote it. I did not say to stop at that point. Just trying to emphasize the importance of the I18 and now that you mention it the Fab4. Sorry I missed the mention of full.
    Last edited by BoSox; 07-24-2016 at 08:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Wow. This sure puts the argument to only learn the I18 and Fab4 in perspective. Those that suggest this (they are not many) use the argument you get 70% of the gain from index plays with these 22 indices so you shouldn't bother with the other 30%. Yet they learned the 22 indices that only add 9.1% (.13*70%) to what BS and bet sizing by count gets. How is 30% addition not worth it but 9.1% is? I guess if they want to be consistent on what is worth it they should learn more indices or just play BS. Like DonS said the I18 and Fab4 was just intended to tell you where to start learning indices, not where to finish.
    That would be 30% added to the 9.1%. = approx 12% - not an actual 30% gain to BS, which is the the way you have phrased it. In any event, I18, fab 4, all indices - whatever is played is an individual choice influenced by overall ability, hours played(example, full indices fir 100 hours of play hardly seems worth it), desire to maximize earnings etc.

    You clearly play all indices, as do I. Recreational players may not have the inclination. Some fairly heavy hours per year individuals make their feelings clear by not only not knowing full Indices, but lack mastery of Basic. Anyone playing lots of hours at a pro or semi pro level should go beyond the 22 indices alluded to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Those as Norm says rough estimated edges are from knowing the true count and playing basic strategy alone, for only that one hand. What the player does with that information is their own choice. If the player bet up and down with the count and uses only basic strategy alone will get 87% of gain that is available from card counting and using strategy. Adding the Illustrious 18 would be a real smart move by gaining most of that 13% lost by not using it.
    I said "rough" estimate first, not Norm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    That would be 30% added to the 9.1%. = approx 12% - not an actual 30% gain to BS, which is the the way you have phrased it.
    No, if you think that is how I phrased it you missed the point. The gain from the I18/F4 over just betting modifications and BS is 9.1% and the added gain from the rest of the indices is 13%-9.1% or 3.9%, both over BS and betting modifications alone (if we trust the Genius's 87% gain for just betting modifications and BS as a percentage of the total possible gain from counting). I presented it as what percentage gain over what you have just before the tweak is worth it. To me there is hardly any gain that is not worth it unless it makes other gains impossible to add. Of course that generalization is an oversimplification. They all interact and compound to make the whole much greater than the sum of the tweaks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJGenius007 View Post
    I said "rough" estimate first, not Norm.
    Correct! I am having a bad day.

    On a side note, I am surprised you needed to ask that original question to begin with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Those as Norm says rough estimated edges are from knowing the true count and playing basic strategy alone, for only that one hand. What the player does with that information is their own choice. If the player bet up and down with the count and uses only basic strategy alone will get 87% of gain that is available from card counting and using strategy. Adding the Illustrious 18 would be a real smart move by gaining most of that 13% lost by not using it.
    I totally disagree with your assessment. I think these rough advantages are generated when players have perfect index play on all indexes while flat betting. Bet ramp on higher TC will enlarge player's advantage. This may also create problems for players who only use I18 and Fab4. While AP capable of perfect index play begin to have the advantage at TC +1, AP using only Illustrious 18 may begin to have advantage at TC +2.2 for example. So between TC +1.0 and +2.2, they will lose bigger bet as the ev is negative in this range.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    They are just rough estimates. They have nothing to do with what indices you use. There are no actual conditions where these numbers are accurate.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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