If Given a Choice, Which Promotion Would You Choose to Play

[Midwest Player]

Assume you had a choice between two blackjack promotions. Also assume both games had the same 6 deck rules and pen.

Lets say the first promotion is a 2:1 blackjack promotion which adds about 2.27% to your advantage. We all know you will get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands so you know you will receive some benefit from playing the promotion.

Now lets say the second blackjack promotion is more of a long shot. The chances of winning the second promotion are about 1 in 62,667 blackjack hands. However, the payoff is quite large adding about 34 cents of expectation per hand played. On a $5 bet that gives a positive expectation of about 6.4%. The time allowed for the second promotion is limited to a maximum of 60 hours spread out over a months time so there is a good chance you might not get any benefit from playing the promotion.

Which promotion would you choose to play?

[Nyne]

The 2:1 BJ game is by far the better game. Even if the max bet is $25, it is still better than the other game. At $25 bets, it has the higher EV and lower SD. The 777s jackpot is nice to have, but it's value is fixed at $0.34 per hand (double for 2 spots) no matter how you slice it. Play the 2:1 BJ game and bet the heck out of it. Your counting max bet is about right off the top on that game.

[Most Interesting Man]

I love how the other promo is identified as the 777s jackpot. I also choose #1 without thinking too much about it.

[21forme]

And since you'll be flat-betting max, your variance will be extremely high, so size your BR/max bet appropriately.

[RWM]

I'm confused. I thought you said that the 2-1 on BJ has a 2.27% edge, and the other promo has a 6.4% edge. Are you not allowed to bet the same amount on the 6.4% edge game? If you can bet the same amount then of course a 6.4% edge is better than a 2.27% edge.

People get too obsessed with variance.

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[sagefr0g]

so the crux of this matter has to do with frequency, time and errhhh opportunity costs?
maybe the fact that one will rarely if ever see such promo's again, sorta thing?
is there a formula?

[Nyne]

I'm confused. I thought you said that the 2-1 on BJ has a 2.27% edge, and the other promo has a 6.4% edge. Are you not allowed to bet the same amount on the 6.4% edge game? If you can bet the same amount then of course a 6.4% edge is better than a 2.27% edge.

People get too obsessed with variance.

The chances of winning the second promotion are about 1 in 62,667 blackjack hands. However, the payoff is quite large adding about 34 cents of expectation per hand played. On a $5 bet that gives a positive expectation of about 6.4%.

RWM, this looks like a fixed jackpot (around $21300 +/- $300) for hitting 777s. The way it was described, I don't think the payoff changes regardless of your bet size, so it's only 6.4% with a $5 bet, but not with any other larger bet. It's always worth $0.34. OP didn't make any statements about max bet size, so I made the point that even if the 2:1 BJ promo is limited to a $25 bet, it's still the better game. I can't imagine it being less than $25 max, but I have seen a $25 max for that promo before.

Edit: OP, one other reason to choose the 2:1 BJ game is if you hit the 777s, you're going to have to provide ID and get a W2-G, if I understand the W2-G rules correctly. If they already have your info, that might not be a deterrent, but if you are playing anonymously, keep that in mind.

[txlouder]

I think certainty equivalent was invented to answer just this sort of question...

I haven't worked it out, but I strongly suspect #1 has higher CE for all bank sizes smaller than the obscenely high...

[RWM]

If you can bet $25 with a 2.27% edge vs. $5 with a 6% edge then obviously that is better. But if both bets are restricted to $25 bets then 6>2. This idea that you may not hit the jackpot has no baring. You are worried about variance on a $25 bet??? How tiny is your bankroll?

[txlouder]

You care about variance because, as others have noted, you are betting on a long shot and you won't get to see any real tangible spendable benefit of the 6% edge unless you get lucky or you play an extremely long time.

Since the edge for option #2 is a fixed 34 cents per hand, that option is potentially viable only if the bet is limited to something under about $15. For bet sizes over about $15, the 2:1 promotion wins out regardless of the size of your bank. For a betting limit of $5, choose option #1 if your bank is less than about $16.5k; otherwise, for a larger bank, choose option #2. For a $10 betting limit, the critical bank size is about $33k.

I hope I did my arithmetic correctly...

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.

[zengrifter]

User is banned, content deleted.