Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: Puzzling result on online calculator

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I filled in that my goal was to win 200 units ($25 unit), playing 1200 hands with a bankroll of 200 units ($5000) on a weekend trip but the online calculator indicates it as 100% probability. I think there is something wrong with the online calculators.
    Last edited by ZeeBabar; 07-18-2016 at 08:04 PM.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    I filled in that my goal was to win 200 units ($25 unit), playing 1200 hands with a bankroll of 200 units ($5000) on a weekend trip but the online calculator indicates it as 100% probability. I think there is something wrong with the online calculators.
    Are you sure you put in a time a constraint or limited the hands to 1200 hands. I haven't simmed this, but
    - you're under capitalized regardless of dd or 6d
    - your numerously stated ramps aren't sufficient for this goal
    - your probability for achieving this goal, with positive variance is probably less than 10%, given your previously stated ramps
    - you likely haven't stated an error factor, which we know is a part of your game
    - you will lose EV through socializing and making plays designed not to piss off others
    - we know you don't optimally ramp.

    Not trying to be a spoil sport, but why don't u use CVCX which you said you purchased, put in your trip roll in with hours to play, look at the optimal numbers, then put in your actual ramps in the custom bets column to see the difference in EV.

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The top field needs to be 400, not 200! There is nothing wrong with the online calculators.

    Don

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Don, I put the top field as 200 because I wanted to know the probability of winning $5000 while taking $5000 with me and playing a DD game and about 12-14 hours or 1200 hands. I used the calculator that says probability of reaching a goal with time constraints. It says 100%.

    I know I make mistakes but my betting is optimal and I use HiLo, I-18 (minus splitting tens). I have lost and won on such trips. It's puzzling.

  5. #5
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    • End Result/Goal in units: This is the number of units that you wish to finish with including the bankroll that you started with.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I explained this to you and you just ignored me. The top field is NOT what you want to win. It's the goal of all the money you want to have when you're done. It is your original bank PLUS what you want to win.

    Don

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Got it. Thanks.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 20
    Last Post: 09-05-2015, 09:49 PM
  2. An absurd result in London's High Court today!
    By Koz84 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 10-14-2014, 11:07 PM
  3. CVCX Online Calculator added to the forum
    By Norm in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 12-26-2011, 05:49 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.