How to deal with losing session in blackjack?

[seriousplayer]

I wonder how blackjack pro who plays blackjack full time for a living deal with losing session. I only play blackjack part time because I have busy work schedule. Player can go for a long time with negative income playing blackjack full time. The fluctuation can be huge and extremely unpleasant and upsetting. During what time is it impossible to lose playing blackjack? Assume that you are playing correctly and are playing a +EV game. It is possible to net a lose over 5 years of play, 10 years of play or 20 years of play before you know that you are not playing a +EV game or playing correctly.

[Freightman]

I wonder how blackjack pro who plays blackjack full time for a living deal with losing session. I only play blackjack part time because I have busy work schedule. Player can go for a long time with negative income playing blackjack full time. The fluctuation can be huge and extremely unpleasant and upsetting. During what time is it impossible to lose playing blackjack? Assume that you are playing correctly and are playing a +EV game. It is possible to net a lose over 5 years of play, 10 years of play or 20 years of play before you know that you are not playing a +EV game or playing correctly.

Sounds like you have confidence issues regarding the quality of your game. If you have access to a solid player who can audit your game, that would be worthwhile.

The answer to your question is yes to everything, but not very likely. So, how long have you been playing and what is your current profit or loss accrued since you thought you were a pisitive EV player?

[Three]

My BR is about 4 times what it needs to be to play with a 0% RoR for the stakes I play. I try to keep my BR steady or climbing when BR withdrawals for paying living expenses are done. But if I don't there is plenty of cushion to draw off in the 3 times excess BR. Of course in the short term you can't actually do this but as you look at longer time frames you can. The length of time it tends to take depends on a combination of factors that include what games you choose to play (rules), what style of play you use to attack the games (wonging style, etc), what conditions you are willing to accept (crowding, penetration, etc) and what count you use (type of count (ace reckoned/nuetral/compromise),Level of count, number of indices, RA indices, etc). I find the best way to ensure the shortest long run is to be pretty picky about everything. It is about getting in the most quality hours not getting quantity of hours. By bailing quickly when conditions deteriorate and selectively hunting what you truly desire you get lots of small to medium size wins and when you find what you are truly hunting for, a monster count at an empty or near empty table, you can win or lose much larger amounts or anywhere in between. For me the net result is a steady steep increase in BR interrupted by much rarer large short term swings up or down.

Now I have read many posts from members that just try to get in quantity of play and accept poor playing conditions. That type of play is usually more of a negative grind with occasional interruptions of larger swings that have less certainty to be positive because they are playing more crowded conditions and/or worse pen and get fewer max bets before an opportunity is over. The ratio of large advantage bets to small advantage or disadvantage bets will have a lot to do with your ride to the long run. High advantage betting bins have much lower n0's and despite being far less frequent they tend to reach n0 quicker in total bets made (comparing n0*(frequency of bet) for different betting bins). If you choose conditions that add to this tendency you really improve your outlook. Shortening the time to the long run depends on making more higher advantage bets compared to smaller advantage bets and disadvantage bets. By choosing playing conditions that maximize the potential for more frequent large bets you make results fall in line with expectation in a much shorter time.

[seriousplayer]

Sounds like you have confidence issues regarding the quality of your game. If you have access to a solid player who can audit your game, that would be worthwhile.

The answer to your question is yes to everything, but not very likely. So, how long have you been playing and what is your current profit or loss accrued since you thought you were a pisitive EV player?

Well I have been playing for 8 years not in a full time level but in a part time level. My current profit about $2400 per year. But then sometime I be losing like 30 percent of my yearly profit then sometime I do really well. Some years I will be in the negative. I remember in a 6 month period I only net $10. I would say all these 8 years I ended in total wins for the year of lower 10,000 part time play. The problem I am having is I think my N0 is too high.

[Three]

Well I have been playing for 8 years not in a full time level but in a part time level. My current profit about $2400 per year. But then sometime I be losing like 30 percent of my yearly profit then sometime I do really well. Some years I will be in the negative.

It sounds like you may have any combination of the following:
1) you play poor games (rules)
2) You try to maximize time played rather than quality time played.
3) You play poor conditions (crowded and/or poor penetration) which results in too few big bets per large count opportunity.
4) You may use a weak count with a combination of the above which results in a negative grind that waits for the rare monster counts to go positive.

Any combination of the above moves you closer to a negative grind that waits for too infrequent max bet opportunities with too few max bets bet when they occur. This really randomizes results and takes much longer for results to fall in line with expectation. Those max bets should be you anchor toward profit but you must make them frequently enough for them to cause you team of bets to more quickly approach expectation. You can't be afraid to make them. Playing poor rules, crowded conditions, poor pen, playing a count that less accurately defines advantage (Betting accuracy not BC) and the correct plays at high counts where EV from accurate play is most all make those losing runs more frequent, longer and more severe. You can make predictability of results occur in a shorter time by addressing as many of these issues as you like. They all interact with each other so it is hard to say what is most important to your approach.

[stopgambling]

You probably don't play enough with bad condition/games ,Optimal bet size is very important for certainty and growth. i always aim for a score of around 50 with an play for 80k rounds . i had a 30%-50% of my bankroll swing a few times with somewhat suboptimal bets ,imagine with poor games and bets that would introduce higher variance . You are essential gambling but only with a slim edge.

[moses]

Man, I hate losing. So much so, it often demotivates me to want to play. It's like going to work and not getting paid. I have to play a couple of tricks with my mind. 1.) If I won every session it wouldn't be long until they didn't allow me to play. 2.) I tell myself I can afford this. Then ask myself who else gets to wake up today and go play blackjack?

Shortly after I was divorced, I remember this gut wrenching feeling sitting in church. It was like, "man, I'm the only guy in here that is single." I don't remember exactly when it changed, but the same thought still comes to mind, but the feeling is that of liberation.

Also, I work really hard at improving my game. I mean it's friggin nutty. But losing means they have to beat the best at my best.

When I played basketball, I know games were won at the park, shooting baskets when it was so cold outside the ball wouldn't bounce. But someone came along and gave me a key to the gym. In blackjack, I truly believe a won loss record is a result of preparation. Many sessions are won sitting at a kitchen table at 3am. Then a guy named Norm comes along and gives you the keys to the gym. His tools make preparation easier and the forum helps avoid that feeling of being the only player in the game.

So next time you lose, ask yourself if you did everything in your power to win. Only a yes answer makes it tolerable...for me anyway.

[seriousplayer]

It sounds like you may have any combination of the following:
1) you play poor games (rules)
2) You try to maximize time played rather than quality time played.
3) You play poor conditions (crowded and/or poor penetration) which results in too few big bets per large count opportunity.
4) You may use a weak count with a combination of the above which results in a negative grind that waits for the rare monster counts to go positive.

Any combination of the above moves you closer to a negative grind that waits for too infrequent max bet opportunities with too few max bets bet when they occur. This really randomizes results and takes much longer for results to fall in line with expectation. Those max bets should be you anchor toward profit but you must make them frequently enough for them to cause you team of bets to more quickly approach expectation. You can't be afraid to make them. Playing poor rules, crowded conditions, poor pen, playing a count that less accurately defines advantage (Betting accuracy not BC) and the correct plays at high counts where EV from accurate play is most all make those losing runs more frequent, longer and more severe. You can make predictability of results occur in a shorter time by addressing as many of these issues as you like. They all interact with each other so it is hard to say what is most important to your approach.

Tthree

The advices above are very good advice but I just want to make clear of what do you mean by a weak count because my definition of weak count and your definition of weak count is different. Your definition of weak might be Hi-lo but my definition of weak count is opp count or speed count. Please clarify.

[LoveBJ]

man, i hate losing. So much so, it often demotivates me to want to play. It's like going to work and not getting paid. I have to play a couple of tricks with my mind. 1.) if i won every session it wouldn't be long until they didn't allow me to play. 2.) i tell myself i can afford this. Then ask myself who else gets to wake up today and go play blackjack?

Shortly after i was divorced, i remember this gut wrenching feeling sitting in church. It was like, "man, i'm the only guy in here that is single." i don't remember exactly when it changed, but the same thought still comes to mind, but the feeling is that of liberation.

Also, i work really hard at improving my game. I mean it's friggin nutty. But losing means they have to beat the best at my best.

When i played basketball, i know games were won at the park, shooting baskets when it was so cold outside the ball wouldn't bounce. But someone came along and gave me a key to the gym. In blackjack, i truly believe a won loss record is a result of preparation. Many sessions are won sitting at a kitchen table at 3am. Then a guy named norm comes along and gives you the keys to the gym. His tools make preparation easier and the forum helps avoid that feeling of being the only player in the game.

So next time you lose, ask yourself if you did everything in your power to win. Only a yes answer makes it tolerable...for me anyway.

excellent post!!!!!!!

[Stealth]

No one likes losing!

It was this dislike and the nagging question about my games proficiency, that prompted me to become a student of the game. Along this path comes the topics of standard deviation, bankroll, sample frequencies, optimal betting, risk of ruin, game evaluation and selection and other assorted topics. When you have sufficiently armed yourself with this scope of knowledge then you are able to develop a plan to attack the game. That plan will include the understanding of the required bank size and the scope of volatility that must be endured to be successful. It will still hurt like hell, but it is more tolerable when it can be expected.

Knowing it is a part of the game and not a deficiency in your skill set is a large part of the minimizing of the impact of losses.

You must have trust in your game and trust in the math of the game to sustain a long term successful attack.

Now go play.

[Three]

The advices above are very good advice but I just want to make clear of what do you mean by a weak count because my definition of weak count and your definition of weak count is different. Your definition of weak might be Hi-lo but my definition of weak count is opp count or speed count. Please clarify.

The way I presented everything count need not be addressed unless you want to. But since you asked to me a weak count is ace reckoned as it gives up a lot in PE. Ace compromise counts picks up about half the lose in PE. Level 1 counts are weak because they average too many dissimilar situation together in the same betting bin so despite high BC you aren't betting very accurately. Betting accuracy is more a measure of the SD and/or range of advantage for individual situations in each betting bin. If you choose what I call a weak count you need to be very cognizant of everything else on the list. You can tighten up results enough for most to be happy with the other things on the list but the accuracy of bets and plays has a lot to do with being able to bet more with the same advantage and having a lower n0 for each betting bin. When it comes to top bets you want as low a n0 as possible for that betting bin and you want to make the bet with as high a frequency as possible. The combination of these 2 determine how fast you approach n0. Your bet size determines the significance of the impact of the betting bin. Remember n0 is proportional to Var/(EV^2) or (SD^2)/(EV^2). You are improving both the numerator and the denominator in this equation but the power variable is EV because it is squared. Of course variance is SD squared so increasing betting accuracy (not BC) decreases SD which is squared in the numerator of n0. But anyway a strong count to me is either ace compromise or better yet ace neutral and a level 2 count. The 4 and 5 should be the highest tagged low cards in the count and not many more of the same tag value. You dilute the power of a level 2 counts each time you add more. 1 more tagged the same as the 4 or 5 is not that big a difference but 2 more is.

Let's not get too involved in the nuts and bolts. The point is your choice of count has an effect on your ride to the long run. Long run stats are not going to be that different but you were asking about how to handle the bad swings. You can stack the deck in your favor by addressing as many of the issues in the list as you want so you can limit bad swings. You need not address your count if you don't want to. Getting quality hours rather than quantity hours will work wonders. You should have a nice cushion in your BR so bad runs won't cause drawdown when large living expenses and a negative run hit at the same time. If you have a weak cushion or no cushion then I would consider addressing a weak count. Weak is just a relative term. It is not judgmental or demeaning. For a personal application weak is also doing a count you can't handle so for each individual their current skill level also defines weak and strong. Strong is the intersection of what your skills can handle and what defines a strong count in general. Strong counts may be weak for those that have yet to develop the skills to perform them flawlessly. So the term strong has a different meaning to different individuals at different points in skill level. If you use other AP techniques like ST effectively that changes the definition of strong as well as certain counts may make these techniques impossible. Just make sure you are proficient at ST before using it. You don't want to be betting big into nothing.

[seriousplayer]

The way I presented everything count need not be addressed unless you want to. But since you asked to me a weak count is ace reckoned as it gives up a lot in PE. Ace compromise counts picks up about half the lose in PE. Level 1 counts are weak because they average too many dissimilar situation together in the same betting bin so despite high BC you aren't betting very accurately. Betting accuracy is more a measure of the SD and/or range of advantage for individual situations in each betting bin. If you choose what I call a weak count you need to be very cognizant of everything else on the list. You can tighten up results enough for most to be happy with the other things on the list but the accuracy of bets and plays has a lot to do with being able to bet more with the same advantage and having a lower n0 for each betting bin. When it comes to top bets you want as low a n0 as possible for that betting bin and you want to make the bet with as high a frequency as possible. The combination of these 2 determine how fast you approach n0. Your bet size determines the significance of the impact of the betting bin. Remember n0 is proportional to Var/(EV^2) or (SD^2)/(EV^2). You are improving both the numerator and the denominator in this equation but the power variable is EV because it is squared. Of course variance is SD squared so increasing betting accuracy (not BC) decreases SD which is squared in the numerator of n0. But anyway a strong count to me is either ace compromise or better yet ace neutral and a level 2 count. The 4 and 5 should be the highest tagged low cards in the count and not many more of the same tag value. You dilute the power of a level 2 counts each time you add more. 1 more tagged the same as the 4 or 5 is not that big a difference but 2 more is.

Let's not get too involved in the nuts and bolts. The point is your choice of count has an effect on your ride to the long run. Long run stats are not going to be that different but you were asking about how to handle the bad swings. You can stack the deck in your favor by addressing as many of the issues in the list as you want so you can limit bad swings. You need not address your count if you don't want to. Getting quality hours rather than quantity hours will work wonders. You should have a nice cushion in your BR so bad runs won't cause drawdown when large living expenses and a negative run hit at the same time. If you have a weak cushion or no cushion then I would consider addressing a weak count. Weak is just a relative term. It is not judgmental or demeaning. For a personal application weak is also doing a count you can't handle so for each individual their current skill level also defines weak and strong. Strong is the intersection of what your skills can handle and what defines a strong count in general. Strong counts may be weak for those that have yet to develop the skills to perform them flawlessly. So the term strong has a different meaning to different individuals at different points in skill level. If you use other AP techniques like ST effectively that changes the definition of strong as well as certain counts may make these techniques impossible. Just make sure you are proficient at ST before using it. You don't want to be betting big into nothing.

Since we are talking about bad swings and not EV. In your experience how can you further improve a weak count, in your definition a level one count, so that it becomes a strong count. It might involves side counting. Instead of switching counts? I realize that people here talks about how weak level count systems are but never suggest ways to improve.

[Norm]

In my mind, there is no way HiLo can be considered a weak count.