New Progressive Blackjack side bet odds.

[BJGenius007]

The jackpot is now $90,000. At what point, the ev is better than the cost of bet?

It is $5 bet. The payout is as the following:

One of the first two cards for players is ace. $10
Player Blackjack. $25
Player suited Blackjack $50
Both player and dealer Blackjack $250
Both player and dealer suited Blackjack $1500.
Both player and dealer Blackjack and same suit 10% of the jackpot.
Both player and dealer Ace King Blackjack and same suit The jackpot.

To win the last two lines, all four cards must be of the same suit.

My rough estimate is that the first line gives player 30% of the bet back. The second and third lines give player 33% of the bet back. For a progressive bet, it is not too bad.

[Boz]

The jackpot is now $90,000. At what point, the ev is better than the cost of bet?

It is $5 bet. The payout is as the following:

One of the first two cards for players is ace. $10
Player Blackjack. $25
Player suited Blackjack $50
Both player and dealer Blackjack $250
Both player and dealer Blackjack and same color $2000.
Both player and dealer Blackjack and same suit 10% of the jackpot.
Both player and dealer Ace King Blackjack and same suit The jackpot.

To win the last two lines, all four cards must be of the same suit.

My rough estimate is that the first line gives player 30% of the bet back. The second and third lines give player 33% of the bet back. For a progressive bet, it is not too bad.

That's a Hi-Tie variant. The regular hi-tie is beatable with counting. A lot of EV comes from the suited pair, which is non-existent in your game. It shouldn't be too hard to figure the math if you go WOO and look at side-bets analysis for the amount of decks used, and change the payouts accordingly...but this game is probably unbeatable.

[Villiam]

Geez, I don't know, are you sure Boz? 25:1 seems pretty good for dealer and player BJ payout and I would think this could be an excellent bet to make late in a shoe with a low ace side count, no?
Are these payouts the same as hi-tie minus the suited pair?
No one else wanted to entertain our resident ASM clumping theorist?

[Boz]

Geez, I don't know, are you sure Boz? 25:1 seems pretty good for dealer and player BJ payout and I would think this could be an excellent bet to make late in a shoe with a low ace side count, no?
Are these payouts the same as hi-tie minus the suited pair?
No one else wanted to entertain our resident ASM clumping theorist?

25-1 is the standard payout in DD. It's 50-1 in 6D. Both games have a significant payout for suited pairs. I doubt this game is beatable. He'd have to figure the jackpot EV and compare it to the losses from the rest of the game being sub-par. The variance would be huge, since it's bad enough on the regular game.

[BJGenius007]

When the first time I saw this game, the jackpot was about $30,000, now it is over $90,000. People began to play it just like when powerball jackpot grew too big.

[Boz]

Yeah, I seriously doubt the EV on the jackpot is worth more than a dollar per $5 spent. Why don't you calculate it?

[BJGenius007]

It is not that hard, the odds to get the jackpot is

(8/52)(1/52)(2/52)(1/52) = 16/6250000 = 1/400000

Assume the first four lines gives players 67% of their original $5 back, the jackpot has to be $666,666 for the player to be even.

[Villiam]

yowsers. question answered.

[Boz]

It is not that hard, the odds to get the jackpot is

(8/52)(1/52)(2/52)(1/52) = 16/6250000 = 1/400000

Assume the first four lines gives players 67% of their original $5 back, the jackpot has to be $666,666 for the player to be even.

Well, that's not quite right. I think it's 24 in the numerator, and obviously you didn't use the correct denominators for simplicity. Then you can also win 10% with two suited blackjacks; chances are about 1/3100. But yeah, the jackpot has to be huge to get to break-even point; much larger than $90K. These types of games are deceptive.

[BJGenius007]

Well, that's not quite right. I think it's 24 in the numerator, and obviously you didn't use the correct denominators for simplicity. Then you can also win 10% with two suited blackjacks; chances are about 1/3100. But yeah, the jackpot has to be huge to get to break-even point; much larger than $90K. These types of games are deceptive.

Four suits of AKAK, AKKA, KAAK, KAKA. Numerator is 16, not 24.

[Boz]

Oh, I thought each had to be suited, but not necessarily the same suit as each other. I think I read it like that because it's impossible to get that in one deck of cards.

[BJGenius007]

Oh, I thought each had to be suited, but not necessarily the same suit as each other. I think I read it like that because it's impossible to get that in one deck of cards.

I saw someone talk to pit boss on this issue. The four cards must be of the same suit.

[Boz]

I believed you...there just obviously must be more than 1 deck.