Another I'm Losing Alot Thread

**Notsure** · 05-28-2016, 11:42 AM

Hello all. I wish I could say I'm having success with CVBJ but like the title says it seems like i'm on a constant losing streak. I have two separate games going on my laptop and on my PC. Both of them I losing consistently.

I'm playing Dealer Hit on soft 17, 6 deck, 2 deck cut, mostly standard rules. I'm using Hi-Lo, IL18, 25 table minimum, 1+ count bet $50, 2+ and above I bet $100.

I understand standard deviations, negative variance, how people lose for hours or sometimes weeks on end. But I just can't seem to catch a break. I mean I was up to $2800 when I first started at $1000 now i'm down to $-1800 on one game and the other one i'm down $-1200. It seems like everytime the count is high I am losing everything and the dealer is getting ridiculous hands and I am never getting blackjacks and rarely hitting doubles/splits, etc. I've made well over 4000 bets on both combined so I figured I would see a return or atleast even out by now but unfortunately I'm not. Everytime I play I'm wondering what the hell is going on and if either I'm doing something wrong, is it a setting I have it on, is my betting strategy off. I really dont know, it's getting to the point where it's laughable now.

And one more question, speaking of betting strategies, I've read from different experts that have different opinions on this. Do most people us a flat betting strategy? As in everytime the count is a certain number that is what your bet will be no matter if you're winning or losing? Or do people change their bets depending on their winning/losing streak? I can see that Stanford Wong and Humble/Cooper have a different opinion on that. I also noticed Humble and Cooper recommended that you leave the table after a winning streak and Wong suggested that was a fallacy and it didn't matter. Just wanted some opinions on that. Thanks.

**Eye of the Eagle** · 05-28-2016, 12:24 PM

Good thing that you are not at the casino and playing for real money.

**NuralagusRex** · 05-28-2016, 12:51 PM

You are using a really weak bet spread on a game with horrible penetration. You might be able to play a breakeven game this way, but you won't make any money unless you wong aggressively, which you didn't say was part of your strategy. This along with the tiny 4000 hand sample is why you aren't seeing any return, and won't see anything even in the long run.

I would never play a game with such terrible penetration unless I was just killing time waiting for a poker seat, or if there were other conditions making the game "special." I want 75% at a bare minimum on a 6D as long as other conditions are favorable. Also, on a 6D you should be spreading much more, like 1-12 or more.

I am not very experienced regarding what effective betting strategies are for cover purposes, but I don't bet mechanically using the same amount always corresponding with a specific TC. I try to bet "chunks," so that it looks like I am not particularly concerned with the exact amount I am betting, and my bet sizes with not be perfectly consistent. I generally don't adjust my bet size after a push. I often won't lead with a minimum bet after a fresh shuffle.

**Jabberwocky** · 05-28-2016, 12:52 PM

Bet more when you're winning and less when losing.

**Boz** · 05-28-2016, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by Notsure

\

I'm playing Dealer Hit on soft 17, 6 deck, 2 deck cut, mostly standard rules. I'm using Hi-Lo, IL18, 25 table minimum, 1+ count bet $50, 2+ and above I bet $100.

You're not even playing with an advantage if you're playing every hand. At best, it's break-even. You don't play shoes with 67% penetration. You need a larger spread. And I'd suggest a Level 2 count and/or not ramping up at +1. I don't know if all this is imaginary or if you're really playing, but you're not going to be 100% perfect like a sim.

You bet based on the count, not based on winning/losing streaks. I'd suggest that you misread Humble and Cooper. They may have been talking about bet re-sizing based on bankroll, cover, or another related issue that wouldn't necessarily require to you bet like a robot on every hand. I seriously doubt they were contradicting Wong.

**Ryemo** · 05-28-2016, 12:56 PM

Not Sure,

I don't understand... Are you saying that you're only using a 4:1 spread on a H17 6D game with 2 decks cut off?! If so I think we found your problem lol. But please correct me if I interpreted that wrong. $25 to $100, right?

1) You aren't going to beat a 6D game with 4:1 spread. My minimum spread on 6D is 20:1.

2) That penetration is awful! I wouldn't play anything more than a 1.5 cut.

3) I don't think you could even break even with these conditions unless you're doing some aggressive wonging.

**BJGenius007** · 05-28-2016, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by Ryemo

Not Sure,

I don't understand... Are you saying that you're only using a 4:1 spread on a H17 6D game with 2 decks cut off?! If so I think we found your problem lol. But please correct me if I interpreted that wrong. $25 to $100, right?

1) You aren't going to beat a 6D game with 4:1 spread. My minimum spread on 6D is 20:1.

2) That penetration is awful! I wouldn't play anything more than a 1.5 cut.

3) I don't think you could even break even with these conditions unless you're doing some aggressive wonging.

As Rymeo said, it is a terrible game to start with (H17, 66% penetration), and your 4 to 1 spread is too little. To fix it, you need to Wong Out all the negative count or increase your spread to at least 10 to 1 ($250 to $25).

**DSchles** · 05-28-2016, 01:17 PM

In fact, you're playing a slightly losing game. 4/6, H17 DAS, play-all, 1-4 spread has a negative e.v.

So, that explains, in part, why you're losing! The rest is simply that, for such a very small sample, anything can happen.

Don

**Bodarc** · 05-28-2016, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by Notsure

I understand standard deviations, negative variance, how people lose for hours or sometimes weeks on end

Hi Notsure

With a $ 1000 bankroll per game, you are playing with a 95% risk of going broke. That is a tad high.

For $ 1.97 you can buy "Playing Blackjack as a Business" by Lawrence Revere or you can read a free book here:

https://www.qfit.com/book/index.htm

However, you indicate you have read Wong and others. They all cover bankroll management, game selection and spreads. Something seems a little fuzzy to me. Could it be you were concentrating on your girlfriend's finer qualities and not the book?

Good luck

**Boz** · 05-28-2016, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Boz

You're not even playing with an advantage if you're playing every hand.

Originally Posted by DSchles

In fact, you're playing a slightly losing game. 4/6, H17 DAS, play-all

Sorry, Don, I couldn't resist, since you taught me almost everything I know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXWcqriPvgk

**Jabberwocky** · 05-28-2016, 03:14 PM

I had only a single store that knew I was counting but didn't mind. All the others employed countermeasures.

**Boz** · 05-28-2016, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Jabberwocky

I had only a single store that knew I was counting but didn't mind. All the others employed countermeasures.

And this one time, at band camp...

**Notsure** · 05-28-2016, 05:38 PM

I guess that makes sense, it is a losing game. I'm not sure what I was looking at but I ran CVCX and it had me at an EV of $16/hr. Not sure what I was plugging in to mess that one up. Now I see it's a loss per hand at that cut and spread. I was originally doing 1-6 spread but was having the same losing results in CVBJ so I decided to reduce my risk with a 1-4 spread.

Maybe it's me but I still felt like the win rate was crap when the count was positive. It could have been too many errors I was making or just not a big enough sample. I'll keep trying.

What do most casinos use as a cut? Do many of them shuffle .5, 1, 1.5?