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  1. #31


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    After 2 years of tracking, I have stopped tracking. I know what my BR is and I count it every month. I have a sense of whether I am winning or losing. The per hour is not important for me as a recreational player.

  2. #32


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    Tracking and looking at individual sessions by themselves is meaningless. But looking at many sessions and looking for outliers as well as the average or net of many sessions is helpful. I don't know what type of game you're playing, but N0 is not some super duper crazy number. On an excellent DD game it's about 8,000.....on a poor shoe game probably like 30,000 (idk for sure about shoe games).....yours is likely somewhere in between. If you logged 4x N0, wouldn't you like to know if you're at 50% of EV or 150% of EV? If you're consistently (on average) only making $50/hr when you think you should be making $100/hr...are you playing poorly / making mistakes / getting cheated / etc.? Do you care if your results are within X standard deviations?

    Let's say you run bad after 100 hours.....would you like to know if you're at -1 SD or -2.5 SD? Maybe your skills aren't what you think they are and in reality you're at -4 SD? If you're at -4 SD, should probably figure out you're not doing something right. Or are you just gonna say "I only care about results....I was probably just running badly"?


    Of course, as far as the 3k vs 4k thing.....it really depends on how much it's worth to you. $3k to one person isn't the same as $3k to someone else. Although, I don't particularly like the question, as it doesn't have very much to do with gambling (although it does to some degree), as you get the 3k guaranteed or 80% chance of 4k......but in gambling, you typically have to analyze the risk (i.e.: losing money).

    The way I see it, the difference between 3k and 3.2k is 6.66%. That extra 6.66% is not enough for me to risk a 20% shot at winning $0.....doesn't matter if it's $3 to $4 or $3M to $4M.....either the value is too inconsequential (3 to 4 dollars) to matter.....or the amount is so huge (3m to 4m dollars) that it wouldn't make sense to have a 20% shot at making nothing.

    Now if the numbers were different, my answer may change. But for an extra 6.66% on a free-roll, I can't imagine changing. Unless for whatever reason I was guaranteed to have the opportunity X amount of times, then I'd see what the possible/likely outcomes would be.

    ie: guaranteed $1,000 or 2% chance of $100,000....I'm probably taking the $1k. But if I can do $1 vs 2% chance of $100 and do this 1000 times, then probably going for the 2% at $100.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    Tracking and looking at individual sessions by themselves is meaningless. But looking at many sessions and looking for outliers as well as the average or net of many sessions is helpful. I don't know what type of game you're playing, but N0 is not some super duper crazy number. On an excellent DD game it's about 8,000.....on a poor shoe game probably like 30,000 (idk for sure about shoe games).....yours is likely somewhere in between. If you logged 4x N0, wouldn't you like to know if you're at 50% of EV or 150% of EV? If you're consistently (on average) only making $50/hr when you think you should be making $100/hr...are you playing poorly / making mistakes / getting cheated / etc.? Do you care if your results are within X standard deviations?
    I agree it is meaningless. Why is looking at outliers helpful? Wouldn't your log be an outlier in and of itself if it didn't contain any outliers? N-zero seems pretty esoteric to me. I'm not a sim junkie tho. You're saying that you need to track EV to know if you're making mistakes. But I kinda see that as videotaping yourself walking. Then you can figure out if you tripping on the stairs was on account of you not knowing how to walk. It's not going to prevent carelessness. And I think I'm able to guage whether I'm able to walk or not; after all, my spine has never been crushed. If something is going wrong, you go to the drawing board and see if it can be turned around. That's exactly how I ended up with a stronger count. I'm trying to reverse poor results, not log them for posterity. You don't go to the drawing board everyday. In the end, 99% of the time it's normal variance. It's a waste of time. How many hours do you spend doing EV tracking? Is it worth the opportunity cost? And cheated? Name one time this has ever been proved. It would be great if a casino was cheating so blatantly that you could identify it with EV tracking; the lawsuit would be worth way more than counting. That's my opinion.

    Note: Although I got crushed AGAIN tonite, I got paid by a cheating dealer who busted with a 5. She wasn't doing it for me, she was doing it for the guy who had just sat down. I didn't say anything because not only did I want the money, I get pissed when ploppies rat on a mispay in my favor. I know it was a cheat because she later pushed her 17 against his multi-card 16. And a few minutes later the guy nervously asked me if I was from around here, and was satisfied with my response so as not to attempt to carry on a conversation. But how a dealer would cheat an AP enough in this fashion to effect his bottom line is beyond me--we don't miss a whole lot. If a casino was cheating in some other fashion, I can't imagine there'd be no whistleblowers. Someone would want a bigger cut of the action and become disgruntled.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-09-2016 at 06:05 AM.

  4. #34


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    You probably wouldn't be able to tell if a dealer is dealing seconds or not, at least if the dealer is good at it. But the cheating part isn't the main reason to track EV. You would get absolutely CRUSHED if a dealer was dealing seconds and you'd probably just chalk it up to "normal variance", FYI.


    Your walking and tripping analogy is perfect. That's the exact reason why you should track EV. Yeah you can walk and I'm sure you're good at it. But how about something that's an unknown? Professional athletes watch video of themselves to see what they do well and what they do poorly. Professional gamers (like computer games) watch their games to see what they did, both good and bad. And I'm pretty sure they "know what they're doing". If you could freely get video surveillance of yourself in a casino, that would help you too, seeing how your comportment(?) is at the table and around the casino.

    You normally expect -2 SD sessions (i.e.: outliers are normal) and so are -2.5 or maybe even -3 SD sessions. You'll get a few of those after many sessions. What if instead of getting an expected 3-4 of such sessions, you have 10 sessions like that? Same goes with +2,2.5,3 SD sessions. Your results tell you something. If you have a distribution like one you'd expect, then you're likely on the right track. If you get something with lots of big losses and big wins (compared to what you'd expect), then you may be over-betting your desired bet/ramp....which means you're playing at a higher ROR than you'd previously thought. If everything is really bunched towards the middle (opposite), then you might be under-betting, and therefore are not making the EV you thought you were making.....and now when you plan a trip and expect 10% of EV to go to expenses, now you're maybe giving up 20% or more in EV to expenses....which will also increase your ROR.

    How long does it take to track your EV? Depends on how exact you wanna get it. But, it really doesn't take that long at all. You sim your games, enter the output in a spreadsheet, write a few formulas, and you're done. Then when you enter a new session in your diary (spreadsheet) you include how many rounds you played. Just ball park the # of rounds or count them if you wanna be really accurate.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  5. #35


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    Dealers don't deal seconds. It's not the movies. It's not a third-world country. Dealers are service workers. They want you to win so they get tips. If they suspect you are a counter and are the hateful type, they try and hide their holecard when you bust. That's the extent of their skill. Like I asked, when have you ever positively identified cheating with EV tracking? At best, you positively identified negative variance to be paranoid about.

    I don't know how you turned my walking and tripping analogy into something that justifies EV tracking. I'm reading your justification and I'm not seeing the connection. Counting cards is not like developing a mechanical flaw in swinging a baseball bat. If you forget how to count, something the Count on Sesame Street could do, you need a developmental psychologist, not a videotape of yourself counting to see if you've been skipping 4 on your way to 5.

    If you have bad results, you see it in your wallet. And if goes beyond what is tolerable, you may check your game or try to make improvements. 99% of the time it's variance, but we all wonder what the hell is going on when things go bad. I don't see the point in EV tracking.

  6. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Dealers don't deal seconds. It's not the movies. It's not a third-world country. Dealers are service workers. They want you to win so they get tips. If they suspect you are a counter and are the hateful type, they try and hide their holecard when you bust. That's the extent of their skill. Like I asked, when have you ever positively identified cheating with EV tracking? At best, you positively identified negative variance to be paranoid about.

    I don't know how you turned my walking and tripping analogy into something that justifies EV tracking. I'm reading your justification and I'm not seeing the connection. Counting cards is not like developing a mechanical flaw in swinging a baseball bat. If you forget how to count, something the Count on Sesame Street could do, you need a developmental psychologist, not a videotape of yourself counting to see if you've been skipping 4 on your way to 5.
    Dealers want tippers to win. They generally want non-tippers and very shitty tippers to lose. I don't think being paranoid about cheating dealers/casinos is enough to warrant tracking EV...it's more of a side/benefit thing to it. And chances are (IMO) you're not gonna run into a cheating dealer.

    Quote Originally Posted by boz
    If you have bad results, you see it in your wallet. And if goes beyond what is tolerable, you may check your game or try to make improvements. 99% of the time it's variance, but we all wonder what the hell is going on when things go bad. I don't see the point in EV tracking.
    Wouldn't you rather check your game / make improvements proactively, when you begin to see something may not be right (ie: you're running at 50% of EV.....or maybe your results are close to EV but your individual sessions have bigger wins & losses than expected)?

    I just don't see the logic behind NOT tracking EV. I'd guess it'd take an hour or two to setup an Excel spreadsheet with the numbers and formulas.....and after that, all ya gotta do is enter 1 or 2 extra columns in your results (# of rounds and game-type [ie: spread/ramp/game]).
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  7. #37


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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    Dealers want tippers to win. They generally want non-tippers and very shitty tippers to lose. I don't think being paranoid about cheating dealers/casinos is enough to warrant tracking EV...it's more of a side/benefit thing to it. And chances are (IMO) you're not gonna run into a cheating dealer.



    Wouldn't you rather check your game / make improvements proactively, when you begin to see something may not be right (ie: you're running at 50% of EV.....or maybe your results are close to EV but your individual sessions have bigger wins & losses than expected)?

    I just don't see the logic behind NOT tracking EV. I'd guess it'd take an hour or two to setup an Excel spreadsheet with the numbers and formulas.....and after that, all ya gotta do is enter 1 or 2 extra columns in your results (# of rounds and game-type [ie: spread/ramp/game]).
    I think we're starting to split hairs a bit here. The reality is the dealers don't care if you win or lose. If they had to pick one or the other, they'd pick win so that they get more tips. Yes, you'll get a bad dealer who wants a non-tipper to lose. But it's not so common and important that it needs to be analyzed. It's like generally, my skin is whitish tan and smooth. If a red bump appears, I don't need a $5000 biopsy based on what WebMD thinks it may possibly be.

    It is proactive to improve your game during negative variance, because that's almost always the cause of poor results. You go to the dentist every so often to prevent tooth decay. You don't go to the dentist everyday. If something doesn't make sense, you're going to realize it. Then you can approximate and run a diagnostic to see if your gut was right.

    I wouldn't even know how to sim my style of play. All I can do is approximate it and simulate the approximation. I'm basically two people working with two different counts. I'll play a negative count under certain circumstances, and wong out of a neutral count in others. I'll play two hands in one circumstance, but with the same TC in different circumstances, I'll play one. It's not even possible to accurately track EV without filming every session and spending hours reviewing it. So why not just approximate it when and if I'm curious? And why not actually do things that I know would improve my results rather than just look at a sim? Like abandon all pretense. Quit playing neutral counts and wong-in. Spread 40-1. I'm results-oriented, not proactive. If my results dwindle, I react. Angrily chasing losses and going on tilt is the best cover, after-all. Sometimes I'm up and I appear to be angrily chasing my losses. And that anger is real because I hate the fact that those bets might turn into losses. And I also hate ploppies, so I'm probably pissed off that one is contemplating sitting down. I'm hoping that I get two blackjacks against a 20, so I can wong out when the ploppy sits down, so he thinks it's out of disgust for him screwing up the shoe...so that even tho I got a nice excuse to wong out, he at least knows that I hate him and wish him a horrible life. If my act was good enough and it's on an ASM, I may be able to stay out of the first part of the next shoe and huff and puff for awhile. I don't say a word to anybody, and I'm not a physically threatening presence. If I finally say something out of anger unexpectedly, I may come off as a psycho. I've seen ploppies run from the table after busting against bust cards in high counts. Putting on your actor's hat is a whole lot more useful than EV tracking, IMO. I also think that a detachment from money, or your actual results, doesn't help anyone's acting skills at the tables. And EV tracking is just another way to detach yourself.

    Should someone sim to make sure they are playing with an advantage and not have a huge ROR? I suppose, but if they don't have a general sense of what these things are already, they don't belong at the table unless they are max betting $10 and purposely playing at a small disadvantage for practice and recreation. You should sim stuff every once and awhile, sure, and take a look at things like EV and your results. But constantly monitoring? Not for me.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-10-2016 at 07:20 AM.

  8. #38


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Putting on your actor's hat is a whole lot more useful than EV tracking, IMO.
    I hear you and it fits your style but IMHO, putting on your actors hat and tracking EV is even better!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  9. #39


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    Maybe. But I still don't see the point of it. And acting isn't a formula you can apply. It's something that develops, basically on its own. EV tracking certainly doesn't help it, and it may even detract from it. If you're a better card counter me, let's say we can measure it--you're 2x better than me. We sit down at the same table, and you are armed with a pocket protector and a diary (which for some reason there's no rule against), and I look like a hobo. You log the results of every hand, split 10s every time you're supposed to, and have no reaction to any loss. I never split 10s, and freak out whenever I hit a bad run. Who's going to make more money, relative to their initial bankroll, from this casino? Your EV Tracker 4000 might say you are, but it's wrong, because my count is stronger, my spread is bigger, and you're getting tossed sooner if you don't evade the heat. Cuz even though they noticed I'm counting, they feel sorry for me and know I'll just spend it all in their liquor shop. I'm only doing it so I can find a way to get drunk for the next few weeks without robbing a liquor store. If I lose, I'll starve. I NEED to win. There's no other option here man. I'm outta options. Do I look like I wanna be here? No. Do I look like everything is riding on that $25 hand? Yes.

    Not to say I'm not occasionally spotted in an instant and summarily made to feel unwelcome. But I still think EV tracking is basically useless. If it helps others, I'm not hating on it. I've just never seen anything to convince me that I need to do it.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-10-2016 at 08:12 AM.

  10. #40


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    But I still think EV tracking is basically useless.
    In the context of your description, tracking is not only meaningless but damn near impossible. But there are other means of tracking that are much less onerous but still have statistical merit.

    Otherwise, we can just agree to disagree.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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