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  1. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post

    So factoring in the dynamics of actual casino play, the plusses of tracking EV get watered down a lot.
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.

  2. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...

  3. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
    If you are a "lone wolf" then certainly you only need to know "actual results", any type of other affiliations such as small or large teams (or a professional, IMO) would be foolish to not track the results for a myriad of valid reasons.

    It may be impossible to track every hand but it is not impossible to have a tracing protocol and systems that is accurate enough to make comparisons of your sessions results to model's like cvdata and cvcx.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    Option A involves an 80% chance you win $4,000, but a 20% chance you win nothing. Option B guarantees you win $3,000 for sure
    I believe the value of these two options can be evaluated with the concept of certainty equivalency (CE), which when used in Blackjack is fundamentally risk adjusted EV. MIT teams paid players using this concept.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  5. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryemo View Post
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...
    For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life. Simulated EV tells you reliably how one game compares to another. And it tells you how one spread compares to another. But to think that it perfectly mirrors real life...I don't buy it. I think simple arithmetic tells you your edge, and EV need not be tracked. Simulation is for experimentation or projection or other thought experiments, in my book. Not comparison. If I'm falling 'short of my target', I get unhappy. And I start wonging in and out more aggressively. I go to lower minimums with a larger spread. This is based on ACTUAL results, not EV. I don't go to my computer and ask it what the problem is. Obviously, I'm not making recommendations to others.

    If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-08-2016 at 02:36 AM.

  6. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If you are a "lone wolf" then certainly you only need to know "actual results", any type of other affiliations such as small or large teams (or a professional, IMO) would be foolish to not track the results for a myriad of valid reasons.

    It may be impossible to track every hand but it is not impossible to have a tracing protocol and systems that is accurate enough to make comparisons of your sessions results to model's like cvdata and cvcx.
    Well, yeah, I think team management would want to do it to prevent theft. But I don't see why I would want to track my own EV. Basically, tracking your EV is like a check on whether you are making mistakes. Well, to me, that's like always wearing a helmet and kneepads when you ride your bicycle. It doesn't really prevent the fall, it just makes me swerve at you if I see you dressed like that.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-08-2016 at 02:44 AM.

  7. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life.

    If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.
    Once again, If you aren't tracking the EV, how do you know you're above it? Example: I play a wide variety of games; some 6D with good cuts, 6D with mediocre cuts, DD with great cuts/rules, DD w/mediocre cuts, and different unit sizes ($10, $25, and $50 units), etc. My EV on some games can range anywhere between $75/hr to $350/hr, based on different games, unit size and conditons. So If I were to log in 500 hrs in one year playing a wide variety of games, how could you possibly know if you're on target???

    Hitting EV and being ahead are two totally different things. I have bundle of cash and a large chip inventory that tells me that I'm WAY ahead, so there is absolutely no question that I'm playing a winning game or not. But those real life results don't tell me if I'm hitting EV. I guess if you only play one type of game ALL the time with the same spread, same unit size, same cut, etc., then I suppose you could just run one sim, track your hours, and you'll know if you're close to target. But if you play a wide variety of games, then you'll never know for sure.

    And FYI, you don't need to play a "billion" hands in order to reach EV. That is a common misconception. The hundreds of million hands that are played out in sims are done so it can relay the projections as accurate as possible.

    I think tracking EV is important, especially when planning trips. It's essential to understand what trip expenses you will incur and how many hours you will need to play in order to off-set those expenses. When I have a losing trip, I don't think "gee, that trip was a total waste of time". I make sure to play the desired amount of hours to off-set the trip expense and make room for desired "projected profit" and move on. Regardless if it's a winning trip or losing trip, I know that if I make that trip enough times, the EV will sort it out in the end. This is a more practical example of how I think tracking EV is important. But to each their own...

  8. #28


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    I'm not trying to be argumentative, just so that's clear. I respect you have a differing viewpoint.

    I know I'm above EV because my actual results are higher than expected. Before I approach the game, I know what my theo EV is supposed to be. Practical counting does not reflect the theory. If you've ever been caught counting by a failed middle-aged counter gone dealer, you're aware of this phenomenon. Except, it may act in reverse. You make it sound like tracking EV is nothing more than comparing a sim to your results. I don't track EV, so I'm no expert, but I thought it was a lot more involved--and a lot more pointless than that.

    I don't really think it's a misconception that you need a billion hands to reach your theo EV. You have to reach N-zero, whatever that is, which occurs after seventy trillion hands. It must be accomplished in one session, and the time limit is 2 hours.

    When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.
    2 things are both true:
    1) your EV moving forward after the loss is the same.
    2) In the long run you will approach EV including the loss you just incurred.

    You might ask how can both be true. The reason is after you play enough rounds for either to be expected to approach EV the difference between the 2 will be insignificant. You are right expecting things to approach expectation indicates you are now more likely to win is a fallacy. But your logic would also suggest if you have a severe downswing you shouldn't expect to approach EV in the long run which is a fallacy as well. The long run will include lots of bad runs some of which will be quite severe. Just because you have one doesn't mean the long run has changed.

  10. #30


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    I know it evens out over time. Basically, I'm saying, I think it's absurd to not care about busting your bankroll, so long as you had +EV! I care about results.

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