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  1. #1
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    It occurs to me that ...


    ... a huge handicap to becoming an advantage Blackjack Player is the
    emotional attachment to money that newbies so often bring to the table.

    This is so very much like the emotional attachment that they may have to an
    (abusive/neglectful) (partner/spouse)
    ~ just like the BJ game that is their mistress.



  2. #2


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    True dat, yo. Brotha Flash preachin the truth!

    But for real that's one of the things I love most about AP. It teaches you money is just money. It's a unit, a tool, something to be calculated but that you don't have to worry about every single dollar (in regards to variance and getting unlucky/etc). You need to be able to take the swings, and in order to do that, you need to not sweat the bad luck and losses. Freedom from moneys hold on most of us is something I really love that I got from AP'ing.

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    As well as helping researchers understand how much a bet is worth in purely mathematical terms, wagers have also revealed how we value decisions in real life. During the eighteenth century, Daniel Bernoulli wondered why people would often prefer
    low-risk bets to ones that were, in theory, more profitable. If expected profit was not driving their financial choices, what was?


    Bernoulli solved the wager problem by thinking in terms of “expected utility” rather than expected payoff. He suggested that the same amount of money is worth more—or less—depending on how much a person already has. For example, a single coin is more valuable to a poor person than it is to a rich one. As fellow researcher Gabriel Cramer said, “The mathematicians estimate money in proportion to itsquantity, and men of good sense in proportion to the usage that they may make of it.”


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    The economists "utility function" explains several things, e.g.
    how a lottery ticket can be a good purchase for a poor person.
    or why only a fool would risk his entire bankroll simply because
    he "has the best of it." If my bankroll is $10,000 and someone
    offers to have ME flip MY coin (and call it) placing $10,500 to my
    $10,000 in escrow, I instantly refuse because the LOSS of 10 K
    has a devastating effect, while winning 10.5 K has a salutary, (but
    not life-altering), effect.

  5. #5
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    true, as in playing stocks, one golden rule.....it takes money to make money. what i need to get over (@64 years young) is that it doesent bother me as much to lose,...we'll say a goodly amt. tinkering with equities, but it bugs the shit out of me to lose 4/500 at bj.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fiddler View Post
    true, as in playing stocks, one golden rule.....it takes money to make money. what i need to get over (@64 years young) is that it doesent bother me as much to lose,...we'll say a goodly amt. tinkering with equities, but it bugs the shit out of me to lose 4/500 at bj.
    The Older you get, and assuming one has been diligent in the accumulation of money for retirement, the Less the need or want for excessive risk. The mix if my retirement funds are in light to medium light risk funds, with approx 10% in medium risk. So, with reference to Married Putters very interesting post, the educated person, may well choose the lower return scenarios simply because excessive risk for higher return is not needed.

    I suppose the same philosophies could be intelligently directed towards AP activity. Interesting topic - maybe someone will start a thread on it.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    So, with reference to Married Putters very interesting post, the educated person, may well choose the lower return scenarios simply because excessive risk for higher return is not needed.
    Which is why those close to retirement put more and more money in US Treasuries. Woe to those who had most of their life savings in the stock market as they were approaching retirement in 2008.
    Let's play with these numbers more, shall we? If instead of numbers like $4,000 and $3,000, let's say we were talking about $4 and $3. If it were a one-time offer, you'd probably just go for winning the $4. But if it were $4,000,000 vs. $3,000,000, I too would take the $3,000,000 because that is all that I would need. I wouldn't even need to play the "long-run" game anymore.
    Certainly there can come a time when percentages and odds don't matter anymore. If a big payout is all you need, and the one-time offer covers it, go for the sure thing.

    Ever see Brewster's Millions? I probably would have taken the million.

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    Economics teaches us that value is subjective and that utility is ordinal (ranking). We cannot say 'how much' a man values something, only that he values X > Y and that action demonstrates preference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryemo View Post
    Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

    Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

    I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

    I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...
    For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life. Simulated EV tells you reliably how one game compares to another. And it tells you how one spread compares to another. But to think that it perfectly mirrors real life...I don't buy it. I think simple arithmetic tells you your edge, and EV need not be tracked. Simulation is for experimentation or projection or other thought experiments, in my book. Not comparison. If I'm falling 'short of my target', I get unhappy. And I start wonging in and out more aggressively. I go to lower minimums with a larger spread. This is based on ACTUAL results, not EV. I don't go to my computer and ask it what the problem is. Obviously, I'm not making recommendations to others.

    If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-08-2016 at 01:36 AM.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life.

    If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.
    Once again, If you aren't tracking the EV, how do you know you're above it? Example: I play a wide variety of games; some 6D with good cuts, 6D with mediocre cuts, DD with great cuts/rules, DD w/mediocre cuts, and different unit sizes ($10, $25, and $50 units), etc. My EV on some games can range anywhere between $75/hr to $350/hr, based on different games, unit size and conditons. So If I were to log in 500 hrs in one year playing a wide variety of games, how could you possibly know if you're on target???

    Hitting EV and being ahead are two totally different things. I have bundle of cash and a large chip inventory that tells me that I'm WAY ahead, so there is absolutely no question that I'm playing a winning game or not. But those real life results don't tell me if I'm hitting EV. I guess if you only play one type of game ALL the time with the same spread, same unit size, same cut, etc., then I suppose you could just run one sim, track your hours, and you'll know if you're close to target. But if you play a wide variety of games, then you'll never know for sure.

    And FYI, you don't need to play a "billion" hands in order to reach EV. That is a common misconception. The hundreds of million hands that are played out in sims are done so it can relay the projections as accurate as possible.

    I think tracking EV is important, especially when planning trips. It's essential to understand what trip expenses you will incur and how many hours you will need to play in order to off-set those expenses. When I have a losing trip, I don't think "gee, that trip was a total waste of time". I make sure to play the desired amount of hours to off-set the trip expense and make room for desired "projected profit" and move on. Regardless if it's a winning trip or losing trip, I know that if I make that trip enough times, the EV will sort it out in the end. This is a more practical example of how I think tracking EV is important. But to each their own...

  12. #12


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    I'm not trying to be argumentative, just so that's clear. I respect you have a differing viewpoint.

    I know I'm above EV because my actual results are higher than expected. Before I approach the game, I know what my theo EV is supposed to be. Practical counting does not reflect the theory. If you've ever been caught counting by a failed middle-aged counter gone dealer, you're aware of this phenomenon. Except, it may act in reverse. You make it sound like tracking EV is nothing more than comparing a sim to your results. I don't track EV, so I'm no expert, but I thought it was a lot more involved--and a lot more pointless than that.

    I don't really think it's a misconception that you need a billion hands to reach your theo EV. You have to reach N-zero, whatever that is, which occurs after seventy trillion hands. It must be accomplished in one session, and the time limit is 2 hours.

    When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.
    2 things are both true:
    1) your EV moving forward after the loss is the same.
    2) In the long run you will approach EV including the loss you just incurred.

    You might ask how can both be true. The reason is after you play enough rounds for either to be expected to approach EV the difference between the 2 will be insignificant. You are right expecting things to approach expectation indicates you are now more likely to win is a fallacy. But your logic would also suggest if you have a severe downswing you shouldn't expect to approach EV in the long run which is a fallacy as well. The long run will include lots of bad runs some of which will be quite severe. Just because you have one doesn't mean the long run has changed.

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