Predicting Blackjack--El Nino

[Boz]

Isn't getting a blackjack or winning a double like El Nino? They can predict when El Nino is going to happen. They use anomaly indices. Forget careers or hobbies or joy. How many people has variance ruined? Sounds like El Nino to me. Why is gambler's fallacy the only thing that applies to believing your due for a win, or conversely, a loss? You can plateau for weeks at a time, never being up or down more than a thousand. Then in one week, you're up $7000 after 3 days and you lose $6000 in the next four, without changing a thing. Why is it possible to predict the weather and not blackjack? They're both deterministic.

Aren't there any warning signs of a false count, whether positive or negative? If all we have are 8's left in the deck, our count is 0 and our advantage is 100%. But instead of borrowing $1,000,000 to place a bet, we may have already wonged out. Obviously, we can't memorize the deck composition. But why no anomaly index? The BC of our count is 99%. But if a computer were placing bets for us and tracking deck composition with the perfect count, it would know to bet all of our money on that hand. It's BC is 97%. Why? Because that's what the BC model yields.

Have you ever seen an anomaly, aside from extreme variance? If you use a multi-parameter count maybe you have. If you track aces, you know there's going to be an ace on your 11, you feel it's more likely than usual you will see an Ace on your 11...and you get more Aces than usual. But using multi-parameter indices offers essentially no gain. Isn't there something more useful we can do with the information, like predicting the loss?

When you have a mega high count, it probably started early, and a bunch of low cards came out at once. Isn't that unlikely? Do we really assume a uniform distribution when the first 52 cards are 70% low? Isn't there a certain probability that another clump exists? Isn't there a decent sized chance it's multiple, weaker clumps? That it's behind the cut card? Isn't there a way to ameliorate false counts--through anomaly indices?

[Norm]

Ridiculous. Blackjack is nothing like El Niño. Much more like La Niña.

[Boz]

Ridiculous. Blackjack is nothing like El Niño. Much more like La Niña.

There's gotta be something to it though. I would think the weather would be a bit more complicated than a blackjack shoe.

[MJGolf]

Ridiculous. Blackjack is nothing like El Niño. Much more like La Niña.

OK; I can't tell which one causes less blackjacks. So you guys determine from below:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/el-nino-b...130009662.html

[Three]

I'd be willing to bet Tarzan and I have the best systems for prognosticating or more accurately a strong correlation to future results.That said we still get our asses handed to us from time to time. I remember Tarzan telling me about some weird deck composition at the end of a deeply dealt game. After making some weird double that nobody else would make he knew there was 1 card in the 13 left that could hurt him. You can guess what the dealer drew. I have had a run of 2 months were I only made a few thousand dollars. It was the worst stretch of such a duration I have had in years. I have had losses that were larger in the short term but they were quickly erased and large monthly win was posted. The sustained near balance of win and loss was a real confidence shaker. A tough weekend in this stretch had me surprised when after losing every dual hand 20 against a 5 or 6 I finally won them. The bad run of dealer suckout against top hands had lasted long enough that it felt weird to win when you had 2 hands of 20 against a 5 or 6 at a high playing count. One time the dealer even got a 7 card 21 at a very high playing count. While these events are far less frequent for us they still can and do happen. No count can predict the future as accurately as we would like. The best you can do is pick a count that bets the most accurately and I am not talking about BC. Also it should play those hands accurately. That is all you can hope for and let the cards fall as they may.

[Boz]

I know what you're talking about. These last few days the dealer's bust cards are stronger than my 20s. I've been a statistical loser against dealer 16s. And I'm pretty damn sure I've won more rounds than I've lost. You could have made a fortune and retired betting opposite amounts of me. He's betting table minimum, let's bet table max. Oh he raised his bet, go to table min.

You guys should tell me what your systems are. My system is just hi-lo. Souped-up to the point where it no longer remotely resembles hi-lo. I'm good at making improvements if I have some material. I think there's a way to do more than anyone is doing. I think there's information we don't realize we have, patterns we're not recognizing. If scientists can predict the sun will blow up in X billion years, I think someone can figure out what's going on in a blackjack shoe.

[Boz]

Isn't getting a blackjack or winning a double like El Nino?

Seriously, someone decided to randomly dislike this post in the DA forum? Weeks after it was posted probably? I think I've picked up a couple stalkers (I hate to directly name any suspects, Sight of Hawk). Remember when I thanked T3 for a compliment, and it earned an unhelpful rating? Remember when I was thanked profusely for my "genius", and yet no helpful rating given? I'm almost as helpful and knowledgeable as Jabberwocky, and his score is way better than mine.

Norm, can you hit the reset button?

[Boz]

You might want to visit some with Tarzan. If you're playing alot of DD and able to play all indices without preferential, then that's the horse I'd bet on.

My count isn't really Hi-Lo. From what I am told from the cryptographer I had to hire to decipher T3's writings, my count is similar to his, at least in form. I'm curious to know what the Tarzan count is, but from the little I do know, it's similar to the Gordon count and couldn't be used on 6D. I'm more in the T3 camp just because that's how my own skills have developed.

[Bodarc]

I use the REMELOID count I developed back in 48. It is 110% efficient in all efficiencies. It also has the ability to point out when a waitress walks by so you never miss a drink.

[Boz]

T3's diatribes

LOL. I"m pretty sure that's inaccurate word usage, but it's still making me laugh uncontrollably.

[Boz]

Have you read some of his responses in KJ's chronicles? My brain would literally freeze up like a slow running computer that finally stops. I'm just kidding with you guys.

Yeah, after Freight-dawg brought them up. I don't think T3 was the one writing dramatic diatribes. I only remember one poster who could get under T3's skin, He Who Shall Not Be Named.