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Thread: What is the EV of splitting 2,2 > 3 ?

  1. #1
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    What is the EV of splitting 2,2 > 3 ?

    I have some answers here:
    SPL3, DAS, DOA
    2,2 > 3 , split, EV=...

    wizardofodds
    = -0.006032

    bjstrat.net= -0.005991

    MGP Analyzer= -0.005990608914731

    CVData= +0.0029(1600 millions hands)




  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I don't know exactly where each number came from. But, keep in mind that many of the Wizard's numbers are infinite deck, bjstrat & MGP ignore the cut card effect, and CVData is not accurate to that many decimals at 1600 million hands.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    According to BJA3 for SPL3, DAS, DOA, the EV of splitting 2,2 vs 3 (for the first split) is:
    1D S17: 0.029069
    1D H17: 0.029281
    2D S17: 0.001401
    2D H17: 0.001384
    4D S17: -0.012175
    4D H17: -0.012337
    6D S17: -0.016670
    6D H17: -0.016884
    8D S17: -0.018912
    8D H17: -0.019153

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardguy View Post
    According to BJA3 for SPL3, DAS, DOA, the EV of splitting 2,2 vs 3 (for the first split) is:
    1D S17: 0.029069
    1D H17: 0.029281
    2D S17: 0.001401
    2D H17: 0.001384
    4D S17: -0.012175
    4D H17: -0.012337
    6D S17: -0.016670
    6D H17: -0.016884
    8D S17: -0.018912
    8D H17: -0.019153
    http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi
    I input as 6D, DAS, DOA, S17, the EV of splitting 2,2 vs 3 is:
    SPL1=-0.01667 (same as in BJA3)
    SPL3=-0.05991

  5. #5


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    BJA3, SPL3 = 0.005991.

    These are off-the-top values, which is the traditional convention for quoting such figures. The problem with cut-card-effect values is that they change for every position of the cut-card.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I don't know exactly where each number came from. But, keep in mind that many of the Wizard's numbers are infinite deck, bjstrat & MGP ignore the cut card effect, and CVData is not accurate to that many decimals at 1600 million hands.
    I am not sure if I understand the cut card effect or not, but I would have a try here...
    bjstrat.net got EV=-0.5991% on 2,2 vs 3 SPL3 , ignore the cut card effect.
    If bjstrat.net considering the cut card effect, or do some more calculation with the cut card effect in its analyzer, the result of 2,2>3 should be lower than -0.5991% as now in the webpage, because of more small cards are included in its combination, instead of a full shoe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    BJA3, SPL3 = 0.005991.

    These are off-the-top values, which is the traditional convention for quoting such figures. The problem with cut-card-effect values is that they change for every position of the cut-card.

    Don
    If I play at a table with CSM, [one2six], how should I estimate the off the top EV? By Combinatorial calculation? By Shoe simulation? Or How?
    Last edited by peterlee; 05-01-2016 at 10:27 AM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Combinatorial would be closest.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Combinatorial would be closest.
    Thanks Norm.

    BTW, wondering if you would like to add an option of "for CSM" in your software?
    Maybe not many card counters would use it, but many casino staff would.

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    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    First thing to estimate might be why you are making any estimations for... a CSM? Huh? Anyway, it's as DonS said, you could have the EV off the top of a 6D, S17 shoe but it's a completely different number off the top of a 2D, H17 game, then again another entirely different number at any given level of pen and dependent upon cards removed. It's a negative expectation hand in which splitting happens to be little better than hitting off the top, you are choosing the lesser of the two evils. I hope you aren't playing against a CSM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarzan View Post
    First thing to estimate might be why you are making any estimations for... a CSM? Huh? Anyway, it's as DonS said, you could have the EV off the top of a 6D, S17 shoe but it's a completely different number off the top of a 2D, H17 game, then again another entirely different number at any given level of pen and dependent upon cards removed. It's a negative expectation hand in which splitting happens to be little better than hitting off the top, you are choosing the lesser of the two evils. I hope you aren't playing against a CSM.
    Yes, I am playing against a CSM.

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    Why???

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why???

    Don
    Why am I playing against a CSM?
    If I play enough hours, I can join the baccarat tournament for free.
    And sometimes for some other reasons, like getting comps...

    Why I asked about EV on 2.2 vs 3?
    I gave a rider strategy table to my friend, it is to split 2,2 vs 3 for the small money but not for the big money(split but don't put additional money).
    Today my friend said that his other CC friend told him that he should split and put money on both the small money and the big money, because there is a +EV on each 2 vs 3.

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