Which one of you wise guys?

[Boz]

...showed up to a strip casino and back-counted a shoe for about two hands, nagging if I minded if you came in on like the last hand, not realizing the true count was about -6. Then when the count went up to plus 1.5 on the next shoe, you unilaterally decided my name was Adam, and asked me if I minded if you go to two hands...which I did, but I feigned nonchalance. When the count dipped to +1, you placed a camouflage bet larger than any previous bets and lost--unless your count is weaker than mine and it was an anomalous divergence. Then when the count dipped further, which it did shortly after the 4 hands or so in positive territory, you continued playing two hands at double the minimum as more camouflage. Then near the end of the shoe, when the count was safely negative and not coming back, you dropped to one hand, but stacked it with red to make it look bigger than it was, as if it was all-in-bet. And I used your erratic behavior as an opportunity to wong out, and watch you lose. Then you pulled out a bunch of chips and colored up after your all-in-bet because you were actually just wonging out and probably wanted larger denomination chips to carry.

Your camo definitely made me think you suck at counting, so maybe it worked.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Sounds like a sloppy ploppy to me.

[Sweaty]

Sounds like a sloppy ploppy to me.

My thoughts exactly. Maybe just a crazy coincidence. Or a ploppy that noticed a lot of small cards that came out in a couple rounds while watching and used some ploppy "logic."

I was playing a 2d game at the Nugget a couple months ago. I sit down with one other guy and he seems to be betting with the count. Interesting.

After the first shuffle he is suggesting to the dealer to cut it deeper, in a not-so-subtle way.

"Okay, this guy definitely counts"

Next shoe his betting goes awry. Although it wasn't "suicide" he was definitely raising his bet after the count would drop.

I was using hi-lo at the time, but i thought there is no way he was betting with an advantage even using a more advanced count. Is it camo? Is he doing it incase I'm drawing heat with my obvious spread?

Then I thought... could this be T3?? Lol

Middle-aged guy that told me he was a bookie from Texas, if I recall right... anyone want to fess up??

[ZeeBabar]

Boz, you don't come off very good in that post. You are making a lot of assumptions, coming off cocky, like some counter expert when it was most likely just a ploppy. You assume the person was back counting with no explanation of why you think he was a counter if he entered the game on a -6 count. When the guy ups or increases his bet, you assume he is using camouflage. Don't ploppies never increase their bet?

There is absolutely nothing in the post that suggests he was anything other than a ploppy. You did not see him winning big, you do not share his bet spread. You sound like you are being paranoid and upset because someone joined the table.

[Norm]

Well, I fess up. I thought I was in a tournament. Damn flashbacks.

[Boz]

Boz, you don't come off very good in that post. You are making a lot of assumptions, coming off cocky, like some counter expert when it was most likely just a ploppy. You assume the person was back counting with no explanation of why you think he was a counter if he entered the game on a -6 count. When the guy ups or increases his bet, you assume he is using camouflage. Don't ploppies never increase their bet?

There is absolutely nothing in the post that suggests he was anything other than a ploppy. You did not see him winning big, you do not share his bet spread. You sound like you are being paranoid and upset because someone joined the table.

Sorry you feel that way. Why would I be paranoid of something that is not heat-related? And why do I need to write a thesis about why I think he was attempting to count? I don't remember requesting your help in changing my mind about it. And why does it sound like I was mad he joined the table? Why would I wanna play a -6 count by myself instead of wonging out and waiting for the shuffle? You're coming off like you might mistake random strangers for someone named Adam.

[Boz]

Sounds like a sloppy ploppy to me.

Flash and Sweaty, you guys could be right, I wondered that too. Now isn't true that MOST "AP" counters are actually non-AP wannabes, who think they have an advantage? I didn't mean to imply in the post that this person was an established and respected AP AND was a faker. I just wanted to know if he was a serious player who contributed to probably the only bj forum on earth or not, so we could laugh and consider both our interpretations. I figured a 100 or so people sporadically post and come here as a reference guide who play in Vegas; that's who I was asking. LOL, I don't think it was Norm or Flash.

He coulda been a ploopy. But consider the number of coincidences. If he had been backcounting 1 deck, his true count would have been positive--I can't give you a number. He spreads to two hands at 1.5-2. The only hands he played wrong were exceptionally marginal. Then he partially wongs, making a red and white rainbow bet as soon as the count hits -1 and then he completely wongs. If it were a crime to be a ploppy, and bad counters were an exempted class, the jury must acquit! At least give me that much. Seriously tho, you guys prob know more about it than I do. Why is it so unlikely he was a bad counter? I've met a bad counter who quit--his main concern, more so than learning basic strategy or to include the cut out cards in his deck estimation, was making sure the casino didn't catch him. He succeeded by never winning.

[Freightman]

I'm always tuned in to the potential presence of other counters. Ploppies can sometimes, on a shirt term basis, emulate counters - and he thought is there that this person may or may not be counting. Usually, the ploppies then do something so stupid or outrageous, it becomes clear very quickly as to where their talents lie.

On the other hand, some counter plays are to difficult for other counters to catch onto, and I see the potential for this occurrence in 1 of the lines of the OP's description. Also, lets not forget that talent levels vary dramatically among advantage players - and just to profess that one is an AP is not to suggest that they are in fact a moneymaker.

I made a post sometime back on 2 hard to spot counters - a post that illustrates my point above. I can try to find it and repost.

[Sweaty]

Flash and Sweaty, you guys could be right, I wondered that too. Now isn't true that MOST "AP" counters are actually non-AP wannabes, who think they have an advantage?

Fair enough. I do not know about others, but I forget bad/wannabe "AP's" even exist. Playing a bad game or lacking discipline is so foreign to me and those around me that everyone who isn't doing it correctly is a labeled gambler. I still dont remove the wannabe from that category, he just doesn't know he is a gambler.

In my dealing days I'd pull up to a table and be suspicious of someone counting because of a large bet toward the end of the shoe if they deviation from basic strategy that made sense. I'd count the next shoe down with them and it was usually obvious in the first 3 hands that this person had no idea about anything AP.

Unless someone is out there tracking shuffle machines. If that's the case, please PM! Lol

[Boz]

Fair enough. I do not know about others, but I forget bad/wannabe "AP's" even exist. Playing a bad game or lacking discipline is so foreign to me and those around me that everyone who isn't doing it correctly is a labeled gambler. I still dont remove the wannabe from that category, he just doesn't know he is a gambler.

In my dealing days I'd pull up to a table and be suspicious of someone counting because of a large bet toward the end of the shoe if they deviation from basic strategy that made sense. I'd count the next shoe down with them and it was usually obvious in the first 3 hands that this person had no idea about anything AP.

Unless someone is out there tracking shuffle machines. If that's the case, please PM! Lol

I agree with your assessment that it is a foreign concept to be so lacking in discipline. That these bad "APs" make up the majority of counters is actually something I read, sourced from other APs, that I assume is true. I wouldn't call them ploppies tho...ploppies range from bad at blackjack to outrageously terrible at blackjack. A bad counter is probably playing at around the actual house edge to a break-even game percentage-wise, but with an outrageous risk of session ruin surpassing the ploppies'. So where the typical ploppy blows 20% of his money and goes home, the typical bad counter will lose 100%--so the casino makes more money off of a bad counter--that's my understanding anyway.

[ZeeBabar]

Like most of us, bad counter is just a pit stop on the way to being a better counter. There is too much to learn to be an AP. An AP, in my opinion, has been through all the shit....bad losing streak. Until the variance really hits, I doubt anyone can claim to be an AP.

with low stakes and some crappy games, I won month after month, 10 out of 12 months, and some $19k and thought I qualify. Second year, I won under $1k.

I think an AP does not have doubts when he is on a long losing streak and does not get ecstatic and spends when he is on a winning streak, a true believer in math. All the rest are good and bad counters. I am just s better counter than when I started but there is still too much to learn to become a real AP. The emotional swings have not gone yet, the doubts come...

[Boz]

Like most of us, bad counter is just a pit stop on the way to being a better counter. There is too much to learn to be an AP. An AP, in my opinion, has been through all the shit....bad losing streak. Until the variance really hits, I doubt anyone can claim to be an AP.

with low stakes and some crappy games, I won month after month, 10 out of 12 months, and some $19k and thought I qualify. Second year, I won under $1k.

I think an AP does not have doubts when he is on a long losing streak and does not get ecstatic and spends when he is on a winning streak, a true believer in math. All the rest are good and bad counters. I am just s better counter than when I started but there is still too much to learn to become a real AP. The emotional swings have not gone yet, the doubts come...

No, being a bad counter is not a pit stop to becoming good. Being a red-chipper is a pit stop...or if you're like me, playing recreationally with a tiny disadvantage and minimal spread and minimal session ROR, all while learning how to count, was a pit stop. High ROR with no advantage is not a pit stop for the good counter. You are strangely defensive of this mystery bad counter or ploppy I met the other day...are you sure it wasn't you?

A true believer in math? An AP is someone who truly believes that math isn't a hoax? Pretty sure there are some laboratory chimps that may satisfy that condition. I'm not sure why you see cause to find that remarkable. 19K on low stakes, bad games? A jackpot on a random slot isn't AP. How do you win less than 1K in a year? I don't play anywhere close to full-time, and I seriously doubt doing that poorly is probable in a sample of 100 years. I make more than $1000 in comps. Maybe Norm should run the numbers.

[ZeeBabar]

No, being a bad counter is not a pit stop to becoming good. Being a red-chipper is a pit stop...or if you're like me, playing recreationally with a tiny disadvantage and minimal spread and minimal session ROR, all while learning how to count, was a pit stop. High ROR with no advantage is not a pit stop for the good counter. You are strangely defensive of this mystery bad counter or ploppy I met the other day...are you sure it wasn't you?

A true believer in math? An AP is someone who truly believes that math isn't a hoax? Pretty sure there are some laboratory chimps that may satisfy that condition. I'm not sure why you see cause to find that remarkable. 19K on low stakes, bad games? A jackpot on a random slot isn't AP. How do you win less than 1K in a year? I don't play anywhere close to full-time, and I seriously doubt doing that poorly is probable in a sample of 100 years. I make more than $1000 in comps. Maybe Norm should run the numbers.

A true believer in the math of BJ I was referring to is someone who loses hand after hand, week after week but believes the math and knows variance will come his way.

There are AP's (Did anyone of you have a long losing streak at the end of the year that brought down your BR?) who will tell you of many ways that you could end up having a losing year (I won) or a series of losing months. In my case, I played $25 DD games and $10 6 deck games. In my learning curve, I realized sometime in my second year,natter getting CVCX that I was not betting optimally. I started doing that while also getting bad variance. Three bad months wiped out the winnings from the previous 9 months. However, this year is running better.

its why I said that a real AP can handle losses (and wins) far better, that the Green Chip or Black chip is just a piece of plastic for the AP.