Why not use a bet progression?

**Nogumby** · 01-21-2012, 01:57 PM

I feel that a positive betting progression or a (controled) negative progression has numerious benifits. At the very least changing up your bets with a progression will give you cover for counting. And every shoe has a trend because of the flow of different value cards and the rate of change of the count, so basing your bet soley on the count can hurt (for example a high count tanking to fast so you end up losing most of your large bets). Also, why not take advantage of a winning or losing streak to maximize session outcome.

With keeping an open mind does anybody else with knowledge of this game agree with any of this.

**Three** · 01-21-2012, 07:43 PM

Maximizing your session outcome is betting optimally. In other words betting with the count.

**forecast rain** · 01-21-2012, 07:56 PM

Originally Posted by Nogumby

I feel that a positive betting progression or a (controled) negative progression has numerious benifits. At the very least changing up your bets with a progression will give you cover for counting. And every shoe has a trend because of the flow of different value cards and the rate of change of the count, so basing your bet soley on the count can hurt (for example a high count tanking to fast so you end up losing most of your large bets). Also, why not take advantage of a winning or losing streak to maximize session outcome.

With keeping an open mind does anybody else with knowledge of this game agree with any of this.

Winning or Losing streak? What does this really mean and how do you ever define the point at which they will occur?

My point is that if you want to maximize session outcomes then disregard a safe bet spread and flucuate between table min and table max bets when the TC is 0 and +1. Simulation software will open your eyes to blackjack outcomes.

**Gamblor** · 01-21-2012, 08:56 PM

I would generally recommend never bet table max.

**forecast rain** · 01-22-2012, 06:38 AM

Originally Posted by Gamblor

I would generally recommend never bet table max.

I'm not recommending it, but its fact that if you want to maximize a sessions outcome you would bet the table max at all True Counts greater than or equal to 1.

**Aslan** · 01-22-2012, 07:08 AM

Originally Posted by forecast rain

I'm not recommending it, but its fact that if you want to maximize a sessions outcome you would bet the table max at all True Counts greater than or equal to 1.

Theoretically, yes, but if you think you have trouble with heat now, just try betting table max! lol I have a gambler friend whose betting pattern is to spread to table max within his first three bets. He drives pit critters crazy, since he always represents a serious threat to the house. As a dyed in the wool gambler, he does not want to win a modest sum, he goes for the motherlode. He loses a lot, to be sure, but when he wins, it's something to celebrate about. Too bad he doesn't have advantage skills.

**Nogumby** · 01-22-2012, 07:48 AM

The count is important, but.... my focus is on maxamizing profit during winning individual sessions and keeping losing sessions at a minimum. The count is only one tool I use to do this. To increase your bet only on the count and wait for the laws of average catch up to your statistical advantage will limit your true profit potential.

**Nogumby** · 01-22-2012, 07:57 AM

A winning or losing streak can only be quantified after it is over. You can never predict when it is over. However, if you agree streaks are always happening, you can net out a positive outcome if you respect them.

**Three** · 01-22-2012, 07:59 AM

I think someone thought Gumby was an eraser and rubbed out part of his brain. Seriously though you have to decide if you want to be an AP or a gambler. What you are talking about MAY work in the short run but will fail in the long run. You are undoing the strategy that gives you an advantage (bet small or nothing when you have no advantage and bet in proportion to your advantage when it exists). Your way to improve upon this is to bet bigger when your advantage is not there or is decreasing? Like I said may work to meet some short term goal but will cost you a lot of money in the long run.

**forecast rain** · 01-22-2012, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by Nogumby

A winning or losing streak can only be quantified after it is over. You can never predict when it is over. However, if you agree streaks are always happening, you can net out a positive outcome if you respect them.

If you are seeking advice, then bet optimally with a pre-set bet spread. If you are trying to convince competent counters about a positive betting progress on a feeling, its not going to happen. I do applaud your desire to create greater returns with current systems that you are using, but understand the direction you initially spoke on about betting progression will not give you what you are seeking.

**Nogumby** · 01-22-2012, 09:18 AM

I think my play has room for improvement. I bet (haha) your play has room for improvement. I appreciate your reply but I think there is more to the game than paying rent until a favorable situation based on just the count.

OK I will make myself look bad, but I do think the dealers previous hand (hands) have a relationship with the dealers next hand (hands), don't you?

Please do not slaughter me on this theory...

**Nogumby** · 01-22-2012, 09:30 AM

Thanks for your objectivity. But I think there is nothing 100% random in stastics, so there is more to making more profit than betting optimally with a pre-set spread. Please do not get me wrong it is a pleasure see there are people who know this game so well. In the late 80's I crushed east coast casinos, yes even had to change my look to continue playing. Then the count was the advantage. Now I think you have to use other tools and hit and run at a brick and morter casino.

**Three** · 01-22-2012, 10:11 AM

It was easy back in the 80s. You could afford to give up some EV with silly ideas and still play a winning game. These days are different. The edge you get is much smaller. Little room to take chances betting against the count if you still want to be an AP. Betting schemes not based on the count can be alluring because sometimes they work and with the worst ones most of the time they work. But they are neagative EV unless they correlate to the count. If you are interested in making money overall not just in one session it is folly to follow your idea.

As for me, I am constantly improving my game. Every day there is learning and each cycle of your N0 is a learning experience. I don't think this will ever change. I learned long ago not to be seduced by progression betting. You want to improve learn risk averse strategies, a more advanced count, more indices, side counting aces and other cards that make your weak indices weak since they are key cards that are neutral or weighted totally wrong for certain match ups. Learn floating advantage for the rare deep deep penetration. Learn the right strategy to maximize your options on dealer error. Learn the way to select the games that are most advantageous and how never to burn them out. As the situation for the AP continues to gets harder these are the skills that will allow to continue to make money and control variance as much as possible.