How long can you last?

[Three]

at what point should you wong out?

Don and his helpers came up with the definitive work to answer this question. Reference chapter 13: New Answers to Old Questions. I don't want to hear you say you don't have the most reasonably priced and most valuable book written on BJ. I have reread it many times. As you learn more you get more out of each chapter. You could probably double your EV on the first read if you are new to most of the concepts. Chapter 13, the one I just referenced, probably had more to do with growing my BR than most other things. I think I made around $5K the first week after reading it that was absolutely due to the info in the chapter. I was White Rabbiting and hit some great shoes I would not have otherwise. Basically your optimal departure point will vary with current penetration level, availability of a new table and crowding. Believe it or not at the end of a shoe you optimally walk away from a moderate advantage. I also factor in other factors not included since my count gathers more information than some but the concepts outlines in Chapter 13 are not too hard to expand upon if you understand them.

[Fire Walker]

...it's obvious OP is talking about PA in this example, not really a walk across the street situation. Different ways to skin a cat as has been brought up by don, stealth, etc, just food for thought...why would anyone want to skin a cat though? Never really understood that phrase.

Miscellaneous thoughts on this thread:
-I agree on the location due to said rules and number of [accessible] locations.
-I disagree with the statement that player has a 1% advantage with Hi-Lo at TC +1. You're a little better than a coin toss at that point.
-I cannot imagine "Wonging IN" to regular BJ games these days - just way too obvious. Just, come off the top with a little more (2U/hand), go down to 1U if/when losing, then aggressively get out when negative RC pierces through TC -1.
-Don responded to OP that a 3-4 unit spread is all that's needed based on the game you're attacking, so that translates to $50-150/200, or $100-300/400. OP responded to Don's post with something along the lines of, "So, should we go $50-300 or 400?" That's 6 or 8 units. (?!)
-Re: "Skin a cat": Simple answer: To eat it! - i.e. Kung Poa 'Chicken' [LOL], kidding (?). I like this one, too: "You can shear a sheep many times, but only skin a cat once."
-Take Tthree's advice and read, and re-read, and re-read BJA3.
-OP's Team hopefully has a Diesel bankroll.

[Bigdaddy]

Bigdaddy, I do not know how many tables you are able to switch around to at your local store, but you need to wongout much sooner than what you are doing. Sitting through all that wasted neg ev, is not only costing you money, that will demand that you will at least need all of your spread to make up the difference, further exposing yourself, but is again costing you money in wasted time, not looking for another table.

Thanks BoSox - I hear you. I knew that the mention of sitting through a game past -1 TC is like the "fingernails on the blackboard" to this community. The point I'm trying to make is that wonging out at shallow negative counts only makes sense in the theoretical world where you can quickly move to another table and start observing a new shoe. This doesn't work so well in my world of crowded tables and limited options.

So I propose a moderate wonging approach that wongs in a little earlier and wongs out a little later than the industry standards.Yes - you will eat a little more negative EV (at minimum bets), but you will also gain some EV from patience with the shoe and catching some higher counts if it turns, especially if it's a deeply cut shoe.

[Three]

The point I'm trying to make is that wonging out at shallow negative counts only makes sense in the theoretical world where you can quickly move to another table and start observing a new shoe. This doesn't work so well in my world of crowded tables and limited options.

I find this problem all the time. That is why I must use Don's BJA3 Chapter 13 info as applicable. The important thing isn't learning the optimal but understanding why things are optimal so you can play optimally for your current situation. There are many factors to consider like crowding/availability of other tables, the different dealers on duty with their pen and error rate and speed, patrons you may be familiar with good or bad at particular tables, pit personnel if you are switching pits, will they lammer your spots and how long will they hold them, if you are the only one at your table will they shuffle up or leave the cards in the shoe, is a shift change about to happen/happening that will open up a bunch of new tables, have I showed them close to too much at this table, and the time to the next casino if that is your best option. I am sure there are many more factors that I left out. To a sim these things don't exist but you face them and more as you consider your wonging options in a casino. Learning why chapter 13 is the way it is so you can extrapolate to other issues you face when wonging has far more gain than simply memorizing the exact departures in chapter 13.

[BoSox]

The point I'm trying to make is that wonging out at shallow negative counts only makes sense in the theoretical world where you can quickly move to another table and start observing a new shoe. This doesn't work so well in my world of crowded tables and limited options.

So I propose a moderate wonging approach that wongs in a little earlier and wongs out a little later than the industry standards.

Bigdaddy, from your above post I can see that you are attempting the wonging approach under anything but ideal conditions. You mention in post #24 that you use a 2 x 1, up to 2 x 10 spread. Under the scenario you described I am sure if you are lucky enough to wong into even one spot (if some ploppy doesn't beat you to the seat first) never mind trying to get two spots, this must be a real pain in the ass to put up with. I hope you have checked out crowd conditions thoroughly on all three shifts for all seven days a week.

I love those cut card placements that you are getting, and I recommend a different approach than the wonging style you are attempting now, but a forewarned WARNING provided an adequate bankroll is required. Find a good table assuming all the cuts are the same and play Two spots if available, or play one spot and grab a 2nd seat when someone leaves. This will happen quicker if you do not grab an end seat, that way you could get that second seat on either side of you. Play the same wonging spread you use or slightly better if you can afford it, and if the CASINO TOLERANCE IS OK WITH IT. Use some periodic wongouts and ask for lamers to hold your spots. You got to take advantage of also SITTING OUT HANDS, telling the ploppies the flow is currently not working for you at the moment. Hopefully this will piss a few of them off enough to leave or sit out hands themselves but in high counts. It also helps when your play is inconsistent on playing hands. The rest of the table will go nuts, especially if you cause the whole table to lose a hand by hitting a twelve vs a 5,or 6 up card.

[Three]

Hopefully this will piss a few of them off enough to leave or sit out hands themselves but in high counts.

I have had idiots try to do this to me. I sit out a bad situation so they see my big bet out later and sit out "to mess me up". You can't really laugh at them at the tables but you have to be laughing on the inside.

[BoSox]

I have had idiots try to do this to me. I sit out a bad situation so they see my big bet out later and sit out "to mess me up". You can't really laugh at them at the tables but you have to be laughing on the inside.

Some dealers also are amazing and will catch you off guard with an incredible statement. One of my favorite dealers who has over the years seen it all from me, from big spreads, to aggressive deviations, going back and forth from two hands to one etc, never once a comment out of his mouth, one day he suddenly comes up with a beauty. After wonging out I was sitting out my spot, watching a ploppy eat up about a deck and a half of neg cards (obviously I like this dealer). With about half a deck left to the cut card the deck is now neutral, I felt a little uncomfortable sitting out that long, I ask the other player if he minds me reentering, I could care less but was being nice, he says go right ahead. I make a waiting bet not even one third of my normal unit bet and receive a blackjack. Dealer pays me and suddenly stops the game and says "you must be a card counter" I was so caught off guard I did not know whether to laugh or cry. He left my head spinning for sure.

[Bigdaddy]

I recommend a different approach than the wonging style you are attempting now, but a forewarned WARNING provided an adequate bankroll is required. Find a good table assuming all the cuts are the same and play Two spots if available, or play one spot and grab a 2nd seat when someone leaves. This will happen quicker if you do not grab an end seat, that way you could get that second seat on either side of you. Play the same wonging spread you use or slightly better if you can afford it, and if the CASINO TOLERANCE IS OK WITH IT. Use some periodic wongouts and ask for lamers to hold your spots. You got to take advantage of also SITTING OUT HANDS, telling the ploppies the flow is currently not working for you at the moment. Hopefully this will piss a few of them off enough to leave or sit out hands themselves but in high counts. It also helps when your play is inconsistent on playing hands. The rest of the table will go nuts, especially if you cause the whole table to lose a hand by hitting a twelve vs a 5,or 6 up card.

Thanks BoSox - good suggestions. Sounds like you're very familiar with the world I'm playing in. I'll definitely give this approach a try.

My local store is quite interesting. I have crowded conditions, but zero heat. I suppose it falls somewhere in between Moo's advice of "don't let stupid back you off" and ZMF's advice of "there's no heat until there's heat". I guess I'll find out soon enough...

[BJGenius007]

Some dealers also are amazing and will catch you off guard with an incredible statement. One of my favorite dealers who has over the years seen it all from me, from big spreads, to aggressive deviations, going back and forth from two hands to one etc, never once a comment out of his mouth, one day he suddenly comes up with a beauty. After wonging out I was sitting out my spot, watching a ploppy eat up about a deck and a half of neg cards (obviously I like this dealer). With about half a deck left to the cut card the deck is now neutral, I felt a little uncomfortable sitting out that long, I ask the other player if he minds me reentering, I could care less but was being nice, he says go right ahead. I make a waiting bet not even one third of my normal unit bet and receive a blackjack. Dealer pays me and suddenly stops the game and says "you must be a card counter" I was so caught off guard I did not know whether to laugh or cry. He left my head spinning for sure.

The dealer just gave you a compliment. It means nothing. I had dealer say the same thing to me. I kept wondering until I saw he said the same thing to the ploppies on the similar situation. Either a BJ on a sudden raised bet or deviation move from Basic Strategy that saved the table.