How long can you last?

[ZeeBabar]

Blackjack historians know that this was the original concept of Wonging and how SW did it: he flat bet large sums and never varied at all.

Don

Another great comment. If you are able to enter at +2 and exit at +1, why not just flat bet $300 or $400. You would not have to worry about surveillance or such as a result of spreading. The EV would be significant just flat betting. I do not have the discipline to exit at +1 (partly given how often I will be coming in and going out of games). I mean, I stand by a table, the TC gets to be +2, I play the round, TC gets to +1, I leave after just one round and then park myself behind the same or another table, jump in at TC+2.

Is there any stat that shows how long a TC+2 will hold or go up after a round?

[BJGenius007]

Another great comment. If you are able to enter at +2 and exit at +1, why not just flat bet $300 or $400. You would not have to worry about surveillance or such as a result of spreading. The EV would be significant just flat betting. I do not have the discipline to exit at +1 (partly given how often I will be coming in and going out of games). I mean, I stand by a table, the TC gets to be +2, I play the round, TC gets to +1, I leave after just one round and then park myself behind the same or another table, jump in at TC+2.

Is there any stat that shows how long a TC+2 will hold or go up after a round?

I wish I know a AP-friendly place like that. My nearby casinos have no-mid-shoe entry on all $25 or higher tables except one or two which are full all the time understandably. So Wong-in/Wong-out is impossible.

[DSchles]

"Is there any stat that shows how long a TC+2 will hold or go up after a round?"

Interesting question. Not sure I've ever seen it asked or answered before. In general, for standard rules and a 6-deck game, the TC is >= +2 about 16% of the time. As you may know, there is no tendency for the TC to rise or fall; rather, the tendency is for it to stay, on average, where it is. So, I would guess that once you achieve a TC of +2, most of the time, it "keeps." But I don't know what percentage of the time it drops, once achieved. I'm sure it is well less than half of the time, but this would make for an interesting sim.

Don

[Norm]

Certainly number of players would matter, as well as current depth.

[TeamMoney]

Since you entered the game at +2 and exit at +1, your spread should be 3 to 1 or 6 to 1:

+2: $200 (or $100 x 2)
+3: $400 (or $200 x 2)
+4 or higher: $600 (or $300 x 2)
between +1 and +2: $100 or just exit.
+1 or lower: never play

In general, you are safe unless a freaky surveillance following you from the sky and discovering your act. In that case, he definitely will alert the nearby casinos and distribute your photo.

The problem is I jump in at +1. With my count I have an advantage at +1 already. I use Halves and I believe Hi-lo has an advantage off +1 as well with the game I play. S17 LS DAS 82% pen on avg. So what would you suggest if I want to jump in at +1? I have run sims on +1 vs +2 and the N0 is slightly less if entering in at +1 and the EV is also higher, so its a win-win. My current strategy is a full wong in wong out strategy where i jump in +1 and out at 0.5 where it's about a break-even game.

Also the problem with just flat betting a full wong in game, would be the N0 goes up much more than just spreading 1-4 or 1-6

[Stealth]

Is there any stat that shows how long a TC+2 will hold or go up after a round?

While I have not seen a "study" here is some anecdotal information. These are the actual results for a team's 1349 call in sessions/rounds of a blend of mostly 6, but some 8, deck games. The protocol was to call in at TC +2 and out at TC-1, flat bet in all positive counts.

BP session rounds.JPG

Hope this is helpful.

[mcallister3200]

With only a 1/2 tc difference between wong in and wong out points, going to be a lot more of akward and strange looking situations where you only play a hand or two, might last a bit longer if either raising wong in point or lowering wong out to a 1-1.5 tc spread in my opinion.

Do you Wong out and re-enter in same shoe if called for? Such a minimal difference in Wong out point would create those situations relatively frequently, if you won't wong back in you might be giving up some EV by not having a lower Wong out, if you will I think you're going to draw some unwanted attention with 2x400 Max most places, at your previous many places likely just don't care.

[BJGenius007]

With only a 1/2 tc difference between wong in and wong out points, going to be a lot more of akward and strange looking situations where you only play a hand or two, might last a bit longer if either raising wong in point or lowering wong out to a 1-1.5 tc spread in my opinion.

Do you Wong out and re-enter in same shoe if called for? Such a minimal difference in Wong out point would create those situations relatively frequently, if you won't wong back in you might be giving up some EV by not having a lower Wong out, if you will I think you're going to draw some unwanted attention with 2x400 Max most places, at your previous many places likely just don't care.

You probably missed some of his posts. OP said there are 5-6 stores and each has many tables. It is perfect for his setting. There won't be any awkward situation if he has to leave the table after only one or two hands because he can just walk to next store or the other side of the same store.

[mcallister3200]

Nope didn't miss it. Also it's obvious OP is talking about PA in this example, not really a walk across the street situation. Different ways to skin a cat as has been brought up by don, stealth, etc, just food for thought.

why would anyone want to skin a cat though? Never really understood that phrase.

[Bigdaddy]

With only a 1/2 tc difference between wong in and wong out points, going to be a lot more of akward and strange looking situations where you only play a hand or two, might last a bit longer if either raising wong in point or lowering wong out to a 1-1.5 tc spread in my opinion.

Do you Wong out and re-enter in same shoe if called for? Such a minimal difference in Wong out point would create those situations relatively frequently, if you won't wong back in you might be giving up some EV by not having a lower Wong out, if you will I think you're going to draw some unwanted attention with 2x400 Max most places, at your previous many places likely just don't care.

Agree - If you're playing on your own (not team player), in today's regional casino environment, you need to be much more realistic, creative and flexible. Wonging in at +2 and wonging out at any negative count looks great on paper, but it's not practical. You'll stick out like a sore thumb and you might get 15-20 rounds per hour with that approach.

Case in point - My local store offers a deep pen 8-deck game (7.25 or better/8). You could get some very nice quantity and quality playing rounds if you take a moderate wonging approach; i.e., maybe wong in at any +1 count prior to mid-shoe, wong-in at any >=0 count after mid-shoe ("floating advantage" kicks in at that point) and wong out at TC <=-3. Use a 2 x 1 to 2 x 10 spread and you got yourself a nice game. You'll get to play between 35-40% of the rounds seen and they will be high-quality rounds.

[BoSox]

and wong out at TC <=-3. Use a 2 x 1 to 2 x 10 spread and you got yourself a nice game. You'll get to play between 35-40% of the rounds seen and they will be high-quality rounds.

Bigdaddy, I do not know how many tables you are able to switch around to at your local store, but you need to wongout much sooner than what you are doing. Sitting through all that wasted neg ev, is not only costing you money, that will demand that you will at least need all of your spread to make up the difference, further exposing yourself, but is again costing you money in wasted time, not looking for another table.

[ZeeBabar]

I am amazed at the wongers outside of Las Vegas ( because of fewer tables, more distance to travel). I tried standing around and counting yesterday. Thought I would wong in at TC+2 but the first shoe was mostly neutral or slightly negative till it got mostly negative. Went to the only other 6 deck table in my local casino but the round was already past 2 decks so there was not much point hanging around.

i mostly wong out, almost never wong in. Start with a new shoe, leave when it gets to TC-2.

These days, wonging in is not allowed except at the lower limit tables anyway and the side bets and crowds make it unpleasant and slow. At the $25 tables, one can wong out and that helps a bit. About wonging out, since you cannot get back in, at what point should you wong out? Should you keep playing at TC-1 if it's early in the deck (cause it may turn positive.) and perhaps wong out later?

[ZenMaster_Flash]

" ... at what point should you wong out? Should you keep playing at TC-1"

Your departure point is variable.

The worse the table conditions, the sooner you leave.
The earlier in the shoe you are presented with a bad TC
the more inclined you should be to stand up and depart.