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Thread: Analyzing Hands per hour / Wonging

  1. #1


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    Analyzing Hands per hour / Wonging

    Let's put an end to this, as I see many conflicting answers around the web. Im a backcounter who only wongs in around +1 or +1.5 and occasionally plays off the top and wongs out at -1. I need to understand if hands 'observed' count towards the hands per hour in the CVCX sim. If they do not, I feel like it will take forever to reach the long run. Im thinking the CVCX software only accounts for hands 'played' and not 'observed' because if you look at play all, the N0 is about 25,000 more hands, and that seems about right if it's going by hands 'played'.

    Can someone clarify this. I want to know what my hourly EV can truly be. If it really is only hands 'played' that count on CVCX, then what im looking at is probably only maybe 40 hands per hour on avg? The N0 would be drastically less at a total of 12000, but I feel like getting 250 to 300 hands per hour with a N0 about 37000 would get done quicker than wonging at 40 hands an hour trying to reach 12000. :/

    Also what I dont understand, is the win rate goes up if you decide to play all, even though you're playing negative expected hands. The N0 goes up drastically, but your win rate also goes up? Im trying to see which way is more profitable. Should I just continue backcounting every single shoe, or start playing heads up and get more hands in per hour? Cant seem to get my head around this.

    Advice please.

  2. #2


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    If wonging in at TC+2 you can expect to play 14-18 rounds (not hands as we almost always play 2 spots) in a shoe. That is assuming you get a TC+2 before the end of the first two decks otherwise abandon the shoe.

    All of our session reporting was rounds played and did not count round back counted. A back counted round bet at $0 generate 0 EV. While hourly EV is a widely used measure of game quality, we ignored hourly rates and used EV per round as our measure of value. Hourly rates were complex with multiple backcounters/spotters and multiple BP's. Having a trip budget and well planned schedule with a target number of call ins per casino was a more meaningful measure.

    There is big value in back counting with $0 bet as it does raise your win rate, EV and lowers your N0 considerably.

    Without, considering how many shoes you can back count and then how many of those will go to a TC suitable for a call in you will have a hard time determining an hourly rate. What if you have 2 or 3 backcounters/Spotters and multiple BP's? There are many more variables backcounting than encountered when determining an hourly rate for an "all play" style.

    My advice if your are heavy into backcounting is to abandon hourly rates and focus on N0 and EV per round and then how many call ins can you get per visit. The focus on getting the number of rounds to reach N0.

    PM me if you need more info
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    Discussed in excruciating detail in BJA3, both in the Optimal Departure study and the very first chapter.

    Don

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If wonging in at TC+2 you can expect to play 14-18 rounds (not hands as we almost always play 2 spots) in a shoe. That is assuming you get a TC+2 before the end of the first two decks otherwise abandon the shoe.

    All of our session reporting was rounds played and did not count round back counted. A back counted round bet at $0 generate 0 EV. While hourly EV is a widely used measure of game quality, we ignored hourly rates and used EV per round as our measure of value. Hourly rates were complex with multiple backcounters/spotters and multiple BP's. Having a trip budget and well planned schedule with a target number of call ins per casino was a more meaningful measure.

    There is big value in back counting with $0 bet as it does raise your win rate, EV and lowers your N0 considerably.

    Without, considering how many shoes you can back count and then how many of those will go to a TC suitable for a call in you will have a hard time determining an hourly rate. What if you have 2 or 3 backcounters/Spotters and multiple BP's? There are many more variables backcounting than encountered when determining an hourly rate for an "all play" style.

    My advice if your are heavy into backcounting is to abandon hourly rates and focus on N0 and EV per round and then how many call ins can you get per visit. The focus on getting the number of rounds to reach N0.

    PM me if you need more info
    So I should only put 40 hands per hour into CVCX? Im asking about how to plug it into CVCX? Should i not take into account the hands observed? Have I been overstating my EV by putting the backcounting option and using 100-120 hands per hour on CVCX? This is depressing if true that my EV is substantially less

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by TeamMoney View Post
    So I should only put 40 hands per hour into CVCX? Im asking about how to plug it into CVCX? Should i not take into account the hands observed? Have I been overstating my EV by putting the backcounting option and using 100-120 hands per hour on CVCX? This is depressing if true that my EV is substantially less
    Reading this thread the other day I notice people skipped over this question. I'm pretty sure the hands per hour includes back counted hands but don't quote me on that. It should say one way or another either in your manual (the little book you received with the CDs) or in the in-software help directory.

  6. #6


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    Why not put in 100 hph with a 0 bet for anything under true1. Doubt you'll have anything close to 40 hands left over.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Discussed in excruciating detail in BJA3, both in the Optimal Departure study and the very first chapter.

    Don
    This.

    You count the hands observed toward your EV and your NO. Your NO is MUCH shorter with wonging, even occasional wongouts.
    The Cash Cow.

  8. #8


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    I'm fairly sure that the number includes hands observed. I think I asked this question a long time ago and that was the answer I got from Norm.

  9. #9
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    Crowd density is a huge consideration, as is the casino policy of "managing (tables) to full"

    My understanding is that 20 hands per hour is the usual constant employed.




  10. #10


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    Right you are.

    AGAIN, sooooo many comments to answer the simplest of questions: If you choose play-all, putting 100 rounds/hour means you play 100 rounds per hour. If you now leave that setting alone and click on Back-Count, you will see that you now actually PLAY around 29 rounds per hour, while observing the same 100 rounds.

    Can we end this, please, and get on with our lives?

    Don

  11. #11


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    Still feel like no one has answered my question. Should I enter 40-60 hands per hour in CVCX? Or do I enter 100-120 and count the hands observed in my sim?

    If no one can answer that, let me ask the board this question. Assuming I can get away with this play style, what win rate would I be looking at if 95% of my play was wonging in at +1 betting 2x100 and increasing one unit every TC up to 2x400 at TC 4 and then wonging out at everytime it hits 0? I would of course mix up an occasional off the top play and aggressive Wong out at -1.

    The conditions would be as follows:

    Halves would be the count being used. S17,LS, DAS 8 deck games with an avg pen of about 1.5 cut off would be the general rules.

    I would play no longer than 1 hour in each store, mixing up shifts etc, to last as long as possible.

    Possible win rate with this style of play?

  12. #12


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    "Still feel like no one has answered my question."

    I answered your question. Put in 100 hands per hour and then click on Back-Count or however you're going to play.

    Don

  13. #13
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Per CVCX Manual:
    Ø Hands per Hour - Number of rounds observed at the table. If you are back-counting, this includes skipped rounds.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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