Negative count question.

[Pghgator]

I've been taking extra hits on stiff hands when the count is negative and forgoing BS. I've had some "luck"with this as I've turned bigger hands that beat the dealer more often than not. I'm just wondering if it correct to do so, or is variance on my side. Examples would be 12/13/14 against dealer value cards with the RC -6/TC -1 or more. It's been effective and also gives me the cover of being a ploppy who knows zero about the game.

my thought process is that I know the likelihood of catching small cards is greater, I am moving the needle towards a favorable shoe and since small cards help the dealer, I am beating him at his own game. The added cover of ploppy play is a bonus.

thoughts

[realestate]

i think this is called index plays

[dharmaprija]

thoughts are these: I would suggest only making these sorts of plays when the indices indicate (indubidably!), IF you are making these plays based on "FEEL" then you will eventually be doomed to failure. The indexes have been generated over millions of hands over decades and are correct in the highest percentage of situations. If you want to take advantage of Negative counts learn the negative indexes to perfection. Otherwise you ARE just another ploppy. Personally I would suggest NEVER playing a count beyond -1 but i am a die hard wonger, guaranteed to be better pastures. But if you insist on playing Negative expectation situations then memorize the plays. The times this has worked out for you could be simple variance and will not last forever. The only time I will sit thru a neg count is when we have gone beyond the half way mark of a shoe and I don't have any other table to go to, this happens where I play sometimes but this is done out of absolute necessity. In my book the necessary work involved in learning all of the Neg. plays isn't worth the Ev which is STILL negative. I must ask...Why are you playing negative situations? Do you have ALL the negative count index plays memorized?

[RS]

Depends on your game -- if you're playing 6 or 8 deck, might want to Wong in/out as dharm's saying. If you're playing SD or DD, you'll probably have to play all the way through (wonging in DD is....sweaty), so learn negative index plays for these games.

If you can't Wong (or don't want to) in shoe games, then learn index plays. Search up "illustrious 18" and "fab 4".

[Pghgator]

I do not have them memorized. Where can I find them online?

[RS]

Are you using HiLo or a different system?

[Pghgator]

I sit through them when I the only one playing at the table like last night. 2 different stores and 2different shoe games. Otherwise at full tables I usually WO

[Pghgator]

Hi Lo

[RS]

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj...ting/high-low/

Scroll down till you see the illustrious18/fab4 charts. Most important ones are at the top. As you can see, using those 22 plays gives you about 80-85% of the advantage as someone who knows all the index plays. But for the complete list, you can google it or look it up on this site. (I haven't used hilo in quite a while, and never learned its indices so yeah =\ ).

[KJ]

thoughts

My thought is that negative index plays are saving a penny in a situation (playing negative counts) where you are losing dollars (note plural). Playing negative counts is a losing proposition, period. The best alternative is to not play all or as many negative counts as you can. Now, I understand that if you play a place with only one or two tables and a long way between casinos, not playing negative counts isn't quite so easy. But you can at least minimize the negative counts that you play. Bathroom breaks, phone calls, playing every other hand, even just stating "these cards are all wrong, I am waiting for the shuffle" will work once in a while. Not playing a negative hand is far greater benefit that playing the negative index. Think of it this way, every negative count hand that you can get out of playing is a win.

As for negative index plays providing cover. yes, I imagine they can. But the cost far outweighs the benefit. I would even argue that not playing negative counts can provide cover and longevity. You can play with a smaller spread, because you don't have as many neutral and negative counts to over come. Using a smaller spread will buy you more time than hitting your 12 vs a 5 at a negative count.

[Pghgator]

While I can get up and walk..when playing quarters heads up against a dealer in a new shoe...I almost have to stay put and bet through it. I just flat bet, I do not increase my bet at any point.

[KJ]

While I can get up and walk..when playing quarters heads up against a dealer in a new shoe...I almost have to stay put and bet through it. I just flat bet, I do not increase my bet at any point.

Wow, heads up negative count play is the worse case scenario for me. There is no one there to help you eat up the bad cards. If it is a shoe game, it will just be round after round of negative expectation play. I would definitely get out. 40 to 50 rounds of heads up play at a negative count is devastating to your win rate.

[Anton Chigurh]

40 to 50 rounds of heads up play at a negative count is devastating to your win rate.

What if you're getting 240 rounds per hour, and there's no fresh shoe nearby? I know this may not apply if you're playing on a street with a dozen casinos, as there's always another off-the-top shoe within a 5-minute walk, but a game with a marginal score but fast, heads-up play is better than a game with a good score and 2 other players at the table, or another game 15 minutes away that may or may not have too many people at the table to make it worthwhile.

I'm not advocating for play-all as a default, but my win rate takes a more devastating hit from watching 3 ploppies dawdle over sucker sidebets than from play-all.