Card Counting Question

[shaner4042]

I am fairly new to blackjack, so forgive me if this is a dumb question. A friend recently introduced to me the hi/low card counting system and since then I have been employing this method in my game. The general consensus seems to be raising or lowering your bets depending on whether the true count advantage is in your favor, and it is suggested you leave the table when the true count goes below negative 1. But wouldn't the fact you know the true count is negative benefit you when deciding whether to hit or stand, as compared to players who have no idea what the true count is. Let me illustrate.

For example, say you are initially dealt a 16, and the true count is negative meaning the deck is rich in cards numbered 2-6, wouldn't you be more inclined to hit given that you have less chance of busting, than say, if the deck were rich in 10-value cards? Surely this information would tip odds in your favor as you know you are mathematically more likely to get closer to 21 without going over, or am I missing something? Everyone seems to suggest that if the true count is negative, the odds are automatically not in your favour, but I do not understand why this is so.

[BigJer]

First, welcome to BJtF!

As far as the rest of the stuff it's been worked out through computer simulations and mathematically.

ETA:
Some of the hands you just lose less by hitting than standing.

I am fairly new to blackjack, so forgive me if this is a dumb question. A friend recently introduced to me the hi/low card counting system and since then I have been employing this method in my game. The general consensus seems to be raising or lowering your bets depending on whether the true count advantage is in your favor, and it is suggested you leave the table when the true count goes below negative 1. But wouldn't the fact you know the true count is negative benefit you when deciding whether to hit or stand, as compared to players who have no idea what the true count is. Let me illustrate.

For example, say you are initially dealt a 16, and the true count is negative meaning the deck is rich in cards numbered 2-6, wouldn't you be more inclined to hit given that you have less chance of busting, than say, if the deck were rich in 10-value cards? Surely this information would tip odds in your favor as you know you are mathematically more likely to get closer to 21 without going over, or am I missing something? Everyone seems to suggest that if the true count is negative, the odds are automatically not in your favour, but I do not understand why this is so.

[luckyned]

That information helps, but the gain is relatively small in terms of hi-lo playing decisions. The advantage you get in high positive true counts comes from increased likelihood of blackjacks and successful double-downs.

[Ryemo]

shaner4042,

What you are describing are index plays. As the count fluctuates positive and negative, there are indices you must learn in order to deviate from basic strategy.

Example (for me, I use Zen Count): If I have a 16 vs dealer 9, basic strategy says I should hit that. But if I have a TC of +8 or higher, then I should deviate from basic strategy and Stand instead.

I would highly recommend purchasing a book, written by Don Schlesinger, called Blackjack Attack Edition 3. Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong is also a great book to start. You should start off by learning the Illustrius 18 (set of 18 of the most important index plays you will encounter majority of the time) and Fab 4. And just so you know, index plays alone are not enough to offset the house advantage in negative counts, which is why you should still Wong Out of negative situations if you can.

Good luck!

[ACFERRET]

The reason you leave at -1 is because even though the count could turn around by the end of the shoe, it is not as likely as it is to turn into a positive count when you leave the table and continue counting at a NEW SHOE.

Bailing out of a shoe at a tc of -1 is approximately the sweet spot for maximising **hourly** performance while counting.

You need to lay down money in positive counts ultimately to beat blackjack, and by bailing at -1 and starting over on a fresh shoe, you will find yourself in a positive count sooner and make money faster. Additionally the positive count in a new shoe will on average be of a larger value than positive counts generated on the remainder of the shoe had you not bailed out at TC -1

The there is the second issue of modifiing your playing strategy based upon the count be it positive or in the case of your question, negetive. These are called index plays, and there are many index plays you can make. While index plays do improve the overall efficiency of playing the game, it is ultimately the composition of the cards in the shoe that have the largest effect on the odds of the game.

If you play basic stategy at a TC of -1 you might have a theoretical EV of -0.9% and if you play indexes it might be -0.87% but the bottom line is your losing and you need to get out of the shoe, so that you can find a new one so you can get action in on positive counts.

[Stealth]

If you play basic stategy at a TC of -1 you might have a theoretical EV of -0.9% and if you play indexes it might be -0.87% but the bottom line is your losing and you need to get out of the shoe,

Well, you may not be losing, in fact you may be winning but you are playing at a disadvantage, which will assure you are losing in the long term. The variance of the game may disguise its ugly side or it may show you just how ugly it can be.

Whatever, get out of the shoe and look for brighter opportunities.