See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 24

Thread: Martingale as cover

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Martingale as cover

    I hope this doesn't get moved to the Disadvantage Forum

    Has anyone ever simmed the idea of playing a Martingale progression (up to the table max) only when the count indicates an advantage. For instance, my usual game is 8D, S17, LS, DAS 6.5/8 pen $10 minimum and $500 max. My usual spread is $10 to $150 with Wong in at +1 and Wong out < 0. I bet $10 at TC0, $25 TC1, $50 TC2, $100 TC3 and $150 TC4 (HiLo with indices). I find that with an 8 deck shoe I'm very rarely seeing high true counts. What if I double my bet after any loss when the TC is +1 or greater and go back to $25 after any win? If TC is 0, I bet the table minimum and I leave when TC goes negative. This would seem to provide great cover. I suspect it would add considerably to variance and ROR but I didn't know so I thought I'd ask.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    192
    Blog Entries
    5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I read an article written by Eliot Jacobson that AP betting $100 (max bet) every hand when he has advantage, bet $0 with disadvantage,
    win more than other AP varying amount by the TC. I think you need bigger bankroll for this strategy.

  4. #4


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You'd be better off doing some oppositional betting. Won't hurt nearly as much.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by greg16394 View Post
    I read an article written by Eliot Jacobson that AP betting $100 (max bet) every hand when he has advantage, bet $0 with disadvantage,
    win more than other AP varying amount by the TC. I think you need bigger bankroll for this strategy.

    It will make money, but is far from an optimal spread.

    Should also mention - not for shoestring bankrolls.
    Last edited by Freightman; 02-07-2016 at 02:43 PM. Reason: To add last line

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by marriedputter View Post
    You'd be better off doing some oppositional betting. Won't hurt nearly as much.
    Not a martingale, but as a progression bettor within a variable bucket. Very profitable in the sense that little EV is lost, and, depending on how it's done, can really make you look like a ploppy. Eventually, the gig will be up, since all that progression betting is at a p,us count.

  7. #7


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Not a martingale, but as a progression bettor within a variable bucket. Very profitable in the sense that little EV is lost, and, depending on how it's done, can really make you look like a ploppy. Eventually, the gig will be up, since all that progression betting is at a p,us count.
    You remember how Richard Marcus did his "Savannah" move in Roulette? When he won, surveillance would look only at that bet and could not figure out how he cheated. Only later did they realize that he DIDN'T cheat the winning bet, but rather cheated on every other bet before that. The winning bet seemed to be the important one, but it was the other bets that told the story.
    This Savannah trick always reminds me of the negative shoes in counting. If a counter is sneaky in plus counts and does every betting trick ever devised to fool the EITS, The AP can indeed buy some time. However, surveillance can check what the AP does in minus counts as well (the seemingly "unimportant" bets). These bets (or lack thereof) are extremely important as well. With minus counts, it's difficult for the AP to hide.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I don't want to say more in public (and I advise others likewise). But "opposition betting" is the art of making it look like you're not using a counter's bet spread, even though your bets correlate with the count.

    Conceptually, you want to think:

    1. What are they looking for?
    2. How can I bet the farm at high counts, but not fit the PROFILE they are looking for, while still being PROFITABLE?
    The Cash Cow.

  9. #9


    0 out of 6 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I have been teaching BJ for the past 16 years and have been asked to write a concentrated summary of my strategy, so here is a copy:

    Basic strategy has been proven over and over to provide the best player decision for each and every blackjack situation. Using basic strategy is the smartest way you can approach blackjack. Emulating the dealer or never busting, only increase the casino advantage to more than the 1.4% over the basic strategy.
    A PERFECTLY EXECUTED BASIC STRATEGY PLAY ONLY GIVES THE HOUSE A .65% PERCENT ADVANTAGE. That is, the house only wins 65 cents for every $100 bet at the table. Add in a little bit of luck and some comp bonuses and the player can have a distinct advantage.

    What about always hitting until you have at least seventeen? In most cases that strategy is applicable. However, if the dealer shows a 10 up card and you have hit a third card to 16, I have been successful standing at the 16 on occasion. To hit a 16 is almost a sure loser against a dealer 10 up card. Either way, you will probably lose that hand.
    There are countless ways you may vary your blackjack play, but it is more than likely, you will be adding to the casino’s advantage if you do not follow basic strategy.

    Forget card counting and some of the other study intensive methods. Besides, card counters are easily detected and not very welcome in Vegas or any other gambling venue. In fact, if you are identified as a card counter, you may be asked to leave the Casino. Also, the Casinos have introduced 4, 6 and 8 deck “shoes”, out of which they only deal about half to two thirds of the cards. This completely negates the meek advantage of 0.8% a card counter has over the house.
    Also, during a recent annual gambling exposition in Las Vegas, an astounding array of new equipment was demonstrated to defeat the card counter, such as shuffling devices (CSM’s) that are able to shuffle an 8 deck shoe after every hand dealt, which is already implemented at some of the strip casinos. Playing chips that have electronic microchips embedded as well as electronic devices that are able to count card values as they are removed from the shoe and then compared to the players betting habits. All that is fed into a central computer just in order to detect counters.
    Also, single deck and double deck games favored by card counters are very rare any more and if they exist, the payoff for BJ is reduced (6:5), or they shuffle every couple of hands dealt – not a good experience for the counter.

    Will these methods be implemented?
    Some of them already have been installed, others maybe, because the Casinos are paranoid about card counters. I personally don’t understand the casino’s paranoia, because very few people have the time or inclination to really become good card counters and in my opinion, card counting does not increase the winnings at the table! The card counters technique of “bet ranging”, once they believe that there is a high positive count, is the secret to any winnings at the table.
    The casinos may be on the way to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. But only the future can tell.

    My personal belief is based on the theory that in the game of Black Jack you can only lose so many hands until you win one, correct?
    So, theoretically, if you double your bet every time you lose, you can NEVER lose, because sooner or later you’ll win one. This system actually is not new. In gambling circles this is known as the “Martingale” method and I will discuss this system for theoretical reasons briefly. We will also use the advantageous aspects of the “Martingale” system.
    The problem with the “Martingale” method is that eventually you will either run out of money, because 10 or 12 losses in a row can happen, or you are up against the table limit.

    Let me illustrate:
    You are playing at the $5 table. The mathematical progression doubling $5 every time you lose is:
    5-10-20-40-80-160-320-640-1280-2560 and so on. Of course this progression you only bet if you lose. If you win, you will bet your normal basic bet of $5 at this table.
    If you have $2,560 in your pocket to lose, of course you can go to the 10th loss but you better hope that you win the next hand, otherwise you have to pony up $5,120 just to be $5 ahead of the game.
    You also may be up against a $1000 table limit, which will shoot you down after the 8th loss and $1275 invested by this time.

    Fortunately, nowadays we have the use of high powered and sophisticated computers that can aid us in the analysis of games of chance (and some skill), such as Black Jack. By computer analyzing thousands of hands of Black Jack played, I discovered some amazing happenings and it answered some of my most pressing questions, such as:

    “How often do I lose 8 or 10 hands in a row”?

    The answer is, “not very often”, but it does happen. And when it does, the loss, depending on your bet, could be devastating.


    I have tracked thousands of hands of Black Jack played and here are the results:
    3 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 17 hands
    4 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 27 hands
    5 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 64 hands
    6 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 123 hands
    7 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 313 hands
    8 losses in a row happen on average 1 in 450 hands

    In other words, the odds are 1 in 450 to lose 8 hands in a row. But this is just a statistic which means, half the time it happens more often and half the time it does not happen as often. It can also mean that it happens 10 times the first 450 hands you play and not at all in the second 4500 hands. It can also mean that you have 5 losses and a win, then 6 losses and a win, then 7 losses and a win, then 8 losses and a win, all in the same gaming session. This scenario could be very expensive to your bankroll, but fortunately is not very likely, but it can happen and NEVER forget that!

    The largest number of losses in a row I have ever experienced was 15. This of course is way past the point you should ever go. You have to have a “Stop Loss” policy somewhere within the bounds of the stake or bank roll you are willing to gamble with, just like playing the stock market. In other words, you have to know when to quit, where your personal comfort limit is.

    If you are thoroughly familiar with the basic strategy of Black Jack, and you should be, before attempting to play any strategy, you will win about 43% of the time, lose 47% of the time and push about 10% of the time. In other words, if you “Flat Bet” (the same amount on every hand) you are guaranteed to lose in the long run, even if you play a perfect basic strategy. The only advantage the player has over the house and the reason why millions of players continue playing the game is the fact that the player can double down and split hands and getting paid 3 to 2 on a natural Black Jack, as well as playing a strategy that protects your winnings and minimizes your losses.

    During my research I also discovered what many of you have experienced as well and that is, in Black Jack you win a little and you lose a little. In other words, it’s a pretty even game. It has to be this way, otherwise people would not be playing the game. You can take a couple hundred dollars and play at the $5 table all night long without either winning or losing a fortune, provided you adhere to the basics.
    Would it not be helpful to know when the wins or losses occur? That would be a gambler’s dream and the Casino’s road to ruin. But we all know the draw of the cards is not predictable. However, there is a known quantity of cards with a known value in each deck and sooner or later things have to repeat themselves. There is a high chance of YOU coming out the winner, if you concentrate your big bets within 4 to 5 hands after a loss.

    Wins break down as follows:
    49% of all your wins will happen within 2 hands after a loss
    74% of all your wins will happen within 3 hands after a loss
    92% of all your wins will happen within 4 hands after a loss
    95% of all your wins will happen within 5 hands after a loss
    The other 5% are spread out anywhere from 6 to 15 losses (the most I have ever lost in a row) in very small doses and should be ignored for our purposes because we will never bet that far down the road.

    Since the majority of the wins will occur in the first four hands after a loss, let’s capitalize on that fact and try to double, triple or quadruple our winnings when they happen within those parameters. Most people are too timid to bet in that fashion and that is why they lose.

    Here is one of my successful Betting sequence. I have arrived at this sequence after playing thousands of hands of BJ and this one has produced the most winnings: 1-3-7-15. However, this sequence is NOT chiseled in stone! You certainly can modify the sequence to fit your comfort level, bankroll etc. to, for instance: 1-3-7-15-30, giving you five opportunities to recover any losses. Or maybe be a smaller spread like 1-2-3-6-12-24 (like the Martingale sequence). This will allow you to bet smaller amounts and just recovering your losses, taking advantage of any won double downs or split hands.
    All numbers are expressed in units (a unit can be $1, $5, $10, or $100) and must be multiplied by the minimum bet chosen.

    This betting sequence takes into consideration that about 92% of all wins will happen within 4 hands after a loss.

    Let me explain: We are going to use 4 numbers to place our 4 tier bets – Let’s use an example at the $5 dollar minimum bet tables.

    First bet $5 (This bet is the start and represents the minimum at the table). If you lose this one you will place the second bet. With this first bet I take HUGE chances such as doubling down on a hard 9,10,11,12 or even 13 on a dealer up-card of 3,4,5 or 6. If I lose it, no big deal, I’ll have a chance to get it back on the next 3 hands.

    Second bet $15 (This bet is designed to accomplish nothing but to add to your winnings or, if you lost the first bet, to recover the loss of $5 on your first bet plus a $10 profit. If you also win this one you will continue betting the base bet of $5 until you lose. If you lose you go to the third bet:

    Third bet $35 is placed if you lost bet one and bet two ($20). If you win this one you have recovered your previous losses, added a $15 profit and start all over again with the $5 bet. In the event of a loss on this bet, you proceed to bet #4:

    Fourth Bet $75 Winning this one will get all your losses back plus a $20 profit and you start all over again with your base bet of $5 until you lose again. If you lose this one, eat your loss and go back to the original $5 bet and start all over again.

    Some of my card counter friends also call this method “Ranging your bets”. I honestly believe that “Bet Ranging” is really the success of card counters.


    Keep in mind that you only bet the full sequence if you continue losing and that you return to your 1 unit bet as soon as you win!

    The most profitable scenario is alternately losing your 1st bet and then winning the 2nd thru 4th bet. But you and I know that this will not happen all of the time.
    Can it happen that you will lose more than 3 or 4 or even 5 in a row?
    Of course it can, but should you lose 7 hands in a row, it is time to change tables, the spot at the table or leave the casino!
    If you are very comfortable at the table you are playing at and don’t want to give up your seat, there are some alternative actions you can take and not lose your entire bankroll.
    1. You can take a bathroom break and come back when the shoe is reshuffled. The dealer will keep an eye on your seat and your chips while you are gone.
    2. You can sit out a couple of hands and see if things improve. (Not permitted at some Casinos).
    3. And when you come back, just “flat bet” the table minimum for three hands and see if things have improved. If you win one in three hands, go take a shot at it again with the progression sequence. I have also used this strategy when first sitting down at a table and did not know if the table was “hot” or “cold”.

    For some people this laborious, slow, but reasonably sure way to win at Black Jack is not exciting enough and they start to deviate from the system and get GREEDY after a few wins to really bet the big bucks. Sometimes they will be successful but in the long run they will lose to the house advantage.


    It is important to be able to know when to fold’em

    I can’t state it often enough, my progressions favor the first four hands dealt.
    These successful progressions are based on the fact that the majority of your wins will happen within 4 hands after a loss (92% of the time) It is tempting to double your 5th bet when you are losing and there is another 3% chance of winning this one, but if you lose this bet you are seriously down in the hole, however, winning this one would recoup all your losses to this point. To use our previous example: 1-3-7-15-30. Losing this one will put you in the hole by $280 (at the $5 min.Table) and somewhere along the way you have to win 16 hands or more to reach the break even point. It’s a judgment call.

    But we do want to get 4 rev’s in, such as 1-3-7-15. As I mentioned, losing 4 rev’s in a row requires you to cut your losses and start all over again with the 1st bet.
    In the unlucky event that you lose 7 progressions in a row, leave that table, take a break or sit out a complete round, meaning 6 to 10 hands before getting back into the game, because it is not getting any better most of the time.
    There seems to be some truth to, what I always considered a “myth”, that the dealer is “hot”. We all have experienced that phenomenon – You have a twenty and the dealer either pushes you or beats you with a natural BJ or a 21 several times in a row.

    The aim of my strategy is simply that: Win your basic betting unit plus a profit with every hand you play, and that will happen whether you win or lose. Take advantage of any double down and split opportunities and the rare occasions where you win more than 3 hands in a row. Since the average dealer will deal about 60 hands per hour, you will win 30 times your basic bet per hour. This is a relatively slow but stable process, but it assures, that you always win and it gives you a HUGE advantage over the house (somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% or better)

    If the dealer or pit boss thinks you are counting, they may decide to shuffle more frequently on you, if you are winning. No big deal! The system is NOT based on a true or running count. It is based on what is most likely going to happen, or for you math buffs, an exercise in probabilities. As a matter of fact, shuffling after every hand is advantageous to my strategy because you always play “with a full deck”.

    You take 2 steps forward and 1 step backward with this system. If anyone can come up with some suggestion how to eliminate the “backward” step, I sure would like to know about it. For some players this system is too boring, too laborious, just not enough excitement, like winning a big bet, but playing the system will guarantee you that you will seldom lose the big bet either. On the other hand, you will be placing $100 bets and that can be pretty exciting if you hit a Black Jack with that much money on the table. Want more excitement? Play at the $100 table with a 4th bet of $1500 on one hand!!

    What if the cards are running just wonderful and you have doubled your money within an hour? Well, here the gambling bug may bite you and why not. Let’s say you play at the $5 table and you are ahead by $500 for the session. It might be a lot of fun and let the adrenaline flow if you bet ½ of your winnings on one hand. For instance when you have lost 3 or 4 in a row you have a 95% chance of winning the next one. If you win, you make a tidy profit – if you lose, you have lost the casino’s money and not yours and you can go back to the basics. On the other hand, pocketing your winnings and walking away from the table might be a better alternative. That is what I do if I am $100 to $200 ahead at the $5 or $10 table.


    How about Splitting hands and doubling down?

    This is another area to improve the player’s position and absolutely necessary to become a consistent winner.
    My research has proven that doubling down is very profitable if played according to the basic Black Jack Strategy. You will win about twice as many double downs as you lose.
    Double down wins and double down losses are disregarded as far as the betting sequence is concerned.
    With any of my sequences, I frequently will double down even with a hard 8, 9 or 12 and the dealer upcard a 4,5 or 6, if the casino rules permit. Here the dealer will probably alert the pit boss to your risky bet and they will keep a brief eye on you. But I will only do this at the 1st betting unit, because if you lose, you have 3 more chances to win your loss back plus your desired winning spread (the GREED factor).

    Splitting hands is only advisable with my strategy with certain limitations, because you will lose or push (win one hand and lose the other) more hands than win, except if you hold a splittable hand and the dealer upcard is 4, 5 or 6, or if you hold 2 aces and the dealer shows a 7 or lower upcard, so why take an unnecessary chance?

    Getting Black Jacks or the dealer beating you with a Black Jack is the luck of the draw. Of course getting a Black Jack after a couple of losses is profitable because of the increased amount of money on the table, and that happens quite a bit (about 4.7% of the time).

    Never experienced any heat with my strategy, looks like the average ploppie!
    Don’t believe me? – Just use ANY BJ simulator and play it my way!

  10. #10
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Norm,


    Please BUST this post and bar the poster, "LuckyIke".

  11. #11
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,461
    Blog Entries
    59


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Luckyike View Post
    Never experienced any heat with my strategy, looks like the average ploppie!
    Of course you look like the average ploppy. You are the average ploppy. This is just a typical progression system and is negative expectation.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  12. #12
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    I disagree with Norm, as this "strategy" qualifies as pure idiocy.

    Many "ploppies" are flat-betting Basic Strategists. This is suicidal.


  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Luckyike View Post
    I have been teaching BJ for the past 16 years and have been asked to write a concentrated summary of my strategy, so here is a copy:


    I imagine many casinos would love for you to teach a seminar on your method. Maybe you could get a few sponsors. Any fee you get for teaching would be the only possible method of making money with this strategy.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Hi-Lo meets Martingale
    By Cloudstreets7087 in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 08-11-2015, 05:42 AM
  2. Multi hand martingale
    By Cloudstreets7087 in forum The Disadvantage Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 07-20-2015, 06:18 AM
  3. Martingale System - Should I try it?
    By andrewkadar in forum The Disadvantage Forum
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 06-03-2013, 11:17 AM
  4. brandnewtobj: Martingale System
    By brandnewtobj in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 12-31-2006, 10:12 AM
  5. Martingale: Norm. What about TREKO??
    By Martingale in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 03-14-2006, 08:00 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.