I agree that BJ21 is a great resource. I strongly disagree that you look at KJ's posts there as so many contain outright falsifications, as well as his posts on WoV. He is likely the worst poster on that site. There are so many other posters there that have been major contributors in the past. Read their posts.
Last edited by Norm; 01-22-2016 at 05:22 PM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
As you get more exposure ,you longevity will shorten . Game conditions deteriorates continually .6:5 and CSM are dreadful.You may make 100k in your first couple of years but what happens in the next 5 years ,10 years . IMO part time bj/AP is much more enjoyable and entertaining when you have a solid career already established. Why risk your career for something that is so unstable. If you are working a low pay dead end job ,maybe it is an option.
Clearly there was a lot of animosity between KJ and other posters here... And I know that you and KJ aren't exactly best of friends, Norm, but that doesn't change his credentials. KJ has survived for a long time in Vegas, playing mid stakes, and stays well under the radar. Longevity is his goal and he preserves it well.Originally Posted by Norm
With that said, there are many other great posters there too. I've learned so much from Bigplayer, LVBear, 21forme, Wham, The Chaperone, etc. I mention KJ also because he almost solely plays in Vegas (grinding out tons of hours every year) and has done well to not get burnt out in that town. If Beta is seriously considering playing full time in Vegas, I think he should most definitely look at KJ's post to get a better understanding of his methods of survival. Just my opinion though.
I surpassed my parents net worth in the early years and was able to look at Uncle Icons eye to eye financially. I was fortunate to learn from a self-made multi-millionaire boss in my early 20's. Now, I get the financial-conservative approach because I'm scared to death I'm going to have to bail them out of some the wild idea's. Back the in day failure meant failure...there was no fall back. Thus success meant being an asshole in others eyes anyway. I must say I'm enlightened to hear that 100K desk jobs seem to grown on trees nowadays.Not always the case LOL. I've entered some VERY profitable ventures, against the advice from my folks. My parents were very weary about me starting my own business (the retail business that I currently run) and had I listened to them, I wouldn't have done as well for myself. Grated... The business that I run now has been very rough for the past couple years and we did declare a loss last year, but I've had many other years where I enjoyed a healthy low-6 figure income, with flexible hours. My elders (at least in my case) always sided on the more fincancially-conservative side of things. I've taken big risks with my business and some years it worked great and some years it didn't. But overall, I came out FAR ahead. There's also a stigma associated with Gambling (Even AP Activites), so many just aren't very understanding.All the best to you in your business Ryemo.
It is VERY wrong to calculate s.d. for a large spread by using 1.1 (1.15 would be better) times the AVERAGE bet. You can't do it that way. The overall s.d. is MUCH larger than 1.15 times the average bet.
Just to give a single example, look at BJA3, p. 236, Table 10.43, line 5, with a 1-16 spread. Note the average bet of ~$25 and the s.d. of ~$500! Your way, you make the s.d. 11 times the average bet (for 100 hands) when, in fact, it's 20 times the average bet, or almost twice as much!
Careful!
Don
My mother especially. She said I was a perfect angel growing up. Of course, she was right.Your parents and grams are very astute people. They've been around a few years. Always listen to grandma and you'll never go wrong. Corrupt? Many of us are perfect examples.
Don't think there as any issue of the unspoken one P. Lurk being overall. a good poster. Problem is he turned into a prancing primadonna, with a singularly focused maniacal point of view. The unspoken one P. Lurk rantings would keep newbies in the womb suppressing their human need to explore.
Hi Lo works, and so do several other systems that can be executed flawlessly, for long periods of time, regardless of their supposed complexities. His biggest success, and I congratulate him for it, is his, or her for that matter, ability to survive in Vegas with his/her hit and run style. If anything, he needs to learn to shut up about his personal play details. He's going to get picked off because of it.
Please, let KJ alone. Even when he is not here, we bring up his name. In my opinion he is a good guy who sometimes lets his passion get in the way, takes losing an argument or being outnumbered hard. The other site also has very good people and they seldom get into major discussions about which count to play (compared to here).
He just posted four more lies on that site. He needs to stop attacking people. He wanders from forum to forum making foul attacks against anyone with whom he disagrees, and then gets angry if someone says not to believe the attacks.
In any case, he isn't likely to last long. He just made a post elsewhere, talking about his comps and play at a major casino by name that he plays at weekly. What pro does that?
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Quite right and it is because the large bets have a much greater effect on the Standard Deviation(SD). If you are flat betting then:
SD=1.15b*sqrt(n) where b is the bet size and n is the number of hands played.
If you are using variable bet sizes then:
SD=sqrt[h*sum(b²*f*v)/sum(f)]
where:
SD= standard deviation
h = hands per hour
b = bet size
b² = bet size squared
f = frequency of the hand at a given true count
v = variance of the hand at a given true count
Hope this helps.
Last edited by davethebuilder; 01-23-2016 at 04:38 AM.
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