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Thread: Insurance brings the heat

  1. #1


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    Insurance brings the heat

    Most all players these days know not to take insurance. I rarely see anyone buying insurance. Insuring that seven with a huge bet out looks pretty suspicious. Would a heat adverse strategy to insure all 20's be worth it or would you completly throw away your edge on the insurance bet? How much does it cost to always take even money on blackjack? How about 12vs 2 How much does it cost you if you stand pat on 75% of these plays. I've notice over the years people have tightened up their basic strategy but i still see a lot of standing on 12v2, and especially 12v3. Funny i never see anyone hit 12v4,5,6 even though this is a marginal play.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Thanks this is very helpful. I dont understand score and how it relates to overall percentages. If my house advantage is 1% with no cover what does it become if i use cover 3, or cover 4 in a 2 deck shoe. is it going to cost me 1/100 of my advantage or is it more like 1/10th of my advantage??? thanks

  4. #4


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    If the HE on your blackjack game is 1%, you need to find another blackjack game because that is just awful. Are you playing 6:5?

    At the end of the day I think it comes down a bit to confidence as well. Just confidently make your plays (hitting 12v2/3, taking insurance, etc). I see many ploppies take insurance all the time (when they shouldn't be). Or you can always mention how the dealers "promote" taking even money... well that's insurance that they're promoting. Just this past weekend I had a dealer telling me "Even money isn't insurance!" When I snickered and asked what it was then, he said "Yeah what would I know, I just deal here."

    Bottom line, people are dumb. Don't ever lose out on EV just because you "think" they'll notice. If you have real heat, that's another story, but until then, confidently make the correct plays.

  5. #5
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    I find the difference between insure all BJ's (Cover 1) and always insure BJ while increasing index to +5 (Cover 4) to be interesting. To me insuring all BJ's and always insuring BJ is the same thing. Am I wrong? That means not insuring until +5 as a risk/heat averse move causes an increase in bets large enough to overcome the lose of SCORE to suboptimal play by a considerable amount.

    Now the heat averse play I have always been told to use is insure BJ in positive true counts (index TC +1). Insure a few really strong hands (20, 11, and 19 although I am not sure the doubles should belong in this group) slightly below the index (1 TC below). Moderate hands at the index (18, 10 and 9. 11 probably belong here due to uncertainty of what your results will be but the EV is high enough to be in the other group. There is value to the smoother ride of waiting on uncertain results. Remember you lose 2 bets and the BJ bet if you get a crappy card and the dealer makes a hand) at the index. All other hands significantly above the index (Like 2 TC above the index, varies by the count you use). This tends to smooth the ride and has significant cover value and as Norm's chart indicates allows for bigger bets with the same RoR. The very certain wins at slightly below the index smooths the ride. Insuring BJ has no variance and the others listed to take insurance 1 TC below the index are very likely wins. This means if you lose the BJ you will win the main bet most of the time. Losing both makes for large swings. There is the play for optimal EV. There is the play for optimal BR growth (this type of play controls swings). There is the play for the best cover (heat averse). And there is the play that is risk averse. All of these factors should be considered when deciding how to use the insurance bet.
    Last edited by Three; 01-07-2016 at 08:12 AM.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Romes View Post
    If the HE on your blackjack game is 1%, you need to find another blackjack game because that is just awful. Are you playing 6:5?

    At the end of the day I think it comes down a bit to confidence as well. Just confidently make your plays (hitting 12v2/3, taking insurance, etc). I see many ploppies take insurance all the time (when they shouldn't be). Or you can always mention how the dealers "promote" taking even money... well that's insurance that they're promoting. Just this past weekend I had a dealer telling me "Even money isn't insurance!" When I snickered and asked what it was then, he said "Yeah what would I know, I just deal here."

    Bottom line, people are dumb. Don't ever lose out on EV just because you "think" they'll notice. If you have real heat, that's another story, but until then, confidently make the correct plays.

    Sorry I should have said if im playing with a advantage of 1%. I just think insurance has brought me a lot of heat. I've never used insurance cover and i've been backed off many times. I havent really played much because of this for the last 5-8 years, i want to start playing again and i need to travel far to play so i will need to camp out 3-4 hours plus at the tables to make it worth while. I will definately have a different approach with cover this time around, but i need maximize ev.

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    Good post, I dont know if i could stomach taking even money in a negative count. Same with insuring a solid hand 19-20,although it would probably be a small bet out. Maybe insuring for less is a good approach.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    Thanks this is very helpful. I dont understand score and how it relates to overall percentages
    SCORE = 1,000,000/n0. So in essence n0 and SCORE are the same stat just presented differently. SCORE is the EV for a certain set of standard parameters. They keep RoR, BR and spread at constants. If DonS's original constants are not used there should be some qualifying nomenclature to indicate other constants are used, like c-SCORE or some other thing. Bare minimum at least indicate what BR, RoR and spread your "SCORE" is for if you don't use the standards.

    The standards:
    BR: $10,000
    RoR: 13.5%
    Single deck: 1-3 spread
    Double deck: 1-6 spread
    6 Deck: 1-12 spread

    You are free to use other parameters to generate an EV which would be the "SCORE" but you are misleading people if you don't state the parameter changes or use a different nomenclature to indicate your "SCORE" didn't use the standards.
    Last edited by Three; 01-07-2016 at 08:30 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shake View Post
    Maybe insuring for less is a good approach.
    This may be some of the best cover insurance.

  10. #10


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    Some places are very heaty and suspicious on people insuring bad hands. I sometimes had to give up insurance on some of these hands . I think one should factor all the other aspect of the game and make a plan of how to play at certain casino. I would give up insurance on some hands for better pen. The list goes on and on. Play "poker" with the pit and the eye,play bj with the house . Don't underestimate your opponents.

  11. #11


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    All good points raised. I've just learned a hard lesson with my first BO. A place with a heavenly game that had been working well for me.

    I had been playing there 6 or 7 visits. I don't want to give too much information that will identify me but, they had not seemed to have any sensitivity to my ramp. In fact. this is an upscale place and my max bets are not abnormal for the crowd that plays there, however, I stepped up to max when the count went crazy high. I hit two indexed plays and an insurance (all of which worked out favorably) in about four rounds of play. That earned me the tap. I can tell you that the plays were not splitting 10s.

    I'm pretty sure it was the indexed plays and the insurance that got me noticed, however, if you aren't making indexed plays you give up hits on your EV. I'm new and still trying to figure it out. This was my first BO, and I'm not happy or pleased with myself as it was easily the best game within 150 miles of me.

    Se La Vie
    Oneoff


    I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Oneoffthecount View Post
    All good points raised. I've just learned a hard lesson with my first BO. A place with a heavenly game that had been working well for me.

    I had been playing there 6 or 7 visits. I don't want to give too much information that will identify me but, they had not seemed to have any sensitivity to my ramp. In fact. this is an upscale place and my max bets are not abnormal for the crowd that plays there, however, I stepped up to max when the count went crazy high. I hit two indexed plays and an insurance (all of which worked out favorably) in about four rounds of play. That earned me the tap. I can tell you that the plays were not splitting 10s.

    I'm pretty sure it was the indexed plays and the insurance that got me noticed, however, if you aren't making indexed plays you give up hits on your EV. I'm new and still trying to figure it out. This was my first BO, and I'm not happy or pleased with myself as it was easily the best game within 150 miles of me.

    Se La Vie
    It was one of my early backoffs - was playing a heavy negative deck making a lot if index plays making out like a bandit - I was known as a solid player - my next appearance, never got to play.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    It was one of my early backoffs - was playing a heavy negative deck making a lot if index plays making out like a bandit - I was known as a solid player - my next appearance, never got to play.
    Friegtman- How did you adjust? If you were playing min bets because of low counts, it had to be the indexed plays that gave you away.

    To all. Are back offs just a part of the life of an AP? I've been slowly inching my ramp up and trying to be careful but there comes a point where letting perceived heat eats impact your play takes away a significant component of your advantage. I wonder if someone could put together a top ten list of camoflage guidelines that were their picks for heat relief versus EV.

    I'm going to reread NOrm's chapter on camo and Don's boo to see if he has more on it.
    Oneoff


    I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!

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