2014 BJ results: A very humbling year.

[KJ]

I end my year before Christmas each year and take a break before the new year, so today was my final day of blackjack play for the year. I have shared my experiences and my results on both this site and Ken's site prior, for as long as I have been a member of the BJ community. Each year, I say...no more. There is no need for me to share my results in detail and this year I had planned not to. But, this was a very unusual (at least I hope it is not the norm) year as I underachieved expectation by a great deal, posting my worst results in my five years of living and playing in Vegas. My worst results since year 4 of my now 11 year career. Since I have willingly, even proudly shared my results in other years, I feel I owe it to share results of this very humbling year.

My personal solo blackjack results for the year total $27,345. That vs expectation for my amount of play of over $87,000.

That is $27,345 vs my 4 previous years of 2010 ($78,925), 2011 ($62,050), 2012 ($81,075), 2013 ($115,425).

Most years I have finished pretty close to expectation, which is in the upper 5 figure range. 2011 was off as I missed 3 months after heart surgery. 2013 was my one year where my BJ results topped 6 figures and was about 45% above expectation. I kind of figured that was due to my improving play and techniques such as tracking two tables and aggressive wong outs of negative counts. But now after this subpar year, I kind of figure 2013 was nothing more than hitting the plus side of the bell curve. And this year, try as I did (more EV than any other year), I hit the reverse, dark side of that curve.

I started off the year slow, training a friend and potential partner, which took time away from my game (it also didn't work out). By mid year, I was below 50% of expectation and then had a negative run in July that actually put me into the red, 7 months and 45,000 rounds into the year. That was a new experience and quite eye-opening. In the second half of the year each good run, where I though I might be about to really get thing going, was met with a negative run or step backwards.

And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance. I live by my signature that if you play long enough, results will come in line with expectation. In the past that time frame has always fit nicely into a year. The past 2 years it hasn't. I think with my style of different spreads and top wagers, I am inviting more volatility or variance, so that time frame doesn't fit so nicely into a calendar year. I still believe in my signature, just have had to adjust the time frame some.

Now of course, all of these figures are just the blackjack portion of my AP, which should account for 80% of my results. I get roughly another 20K from my half of my partner and my machine play results. That has yet to be determined as we still have a couple thousand dollars in free play to play through in the next week, but that part of my AP income looks to be close to expectation, so that will help.

I know there are those (not necessarily of this site) who will attribute my subpar year to the downfall of blackjack, as they predict every year or just the downfall of myself, as there are a handful that seem to be routing against me. I don't think either to be the case, I just think it was the dark side of the curve. But time will tell.

[DSchles]

You don't mention how many hours you played, so that we can get an idea of e.v. vs. s.d. If you don't already have BJRM 2002, which is currently being offered for free by John Auston, you should get it, plug your two values into the Random Walk feature, and see your entire future of dozens of years run by. It will be an eye-opener, and you will never again be surprised with results such as those that you have cited.

Don

[Timbertom]

I haven't officially closed my books for this year, but with many social commitments coming up in the next week I doubt if I will be getting many hours in. My results will be close to the average of your previous years and is around what I have been averaging the last few years. The was one exception and that was last year. It was my first and only negative year. I have BJRM and I have done many Random Walks but until it is my results at the end of the year with a minus in front of the figure it doesn't really sink in.
Like you I have another AP opportunity that makes me another 25%.

[Timbertom]

I usually average between 800 and 1000 hours a year playing BJ. I have many dramatic ups and downs within the year, but more by happenchance the years worked out to within 20 to 30 % of each other.

[21forme]

KJ - if you don't mind me asking, how many trips did you make outside of LV for the year? How do your results compare, LV vs. non-LV and can you correlate it at all to game quality?

[max85]

I enjoy reading these posts kj, so don't stop informing the community of the real results one could possibly experience playing bj full time. In the 11 years you have been playing, (if that all full time) has every year been winning? Are there not more fruitful opportunities in other advantage play?

what are your costs for playing? So you grossed 115k last year, what were your expenses? Eg, petrol, travel costs etc? How often do you play to accumulate this results? 5 hours a day?

are you finding the playable stores depleting over time for you?

keep up the good work and informing others such as myself about the real world of bj, it's a tough gig.

cheers,

the bloody aussie

[muffdiver]

Your 5 year average is $72,964 and your expected win probably wasn't 87k 5 years ago right? (4 years ago?) Just putting things in a different perspective.

[biggg]

I have to say, I just couldn't cut it in BJ and moved on to other advantage plays. Most of the reason has to do with the story you post here, where you could be playing well, full time, and still have a year so far below expectation. Just really impressed by someone who has done this for so long in BJ.

[Three]

And actually, one of the lessons I think I learned this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance.

Now Kj. you already knew this. I and others have pinted it out and I have often said you know and accept this fact. You never arued the point once. I guess what you mean rather than learned is experienced. Something like this:


And actually, one of the lessons I think I experienced (or had to endure) this year is that my style of play, playing different spreads and max bets at different games, depending on what I perceive the casino's tolerance level to be, INCREASES my volatility or variance.

When you do this you can have your wins and losses fall exactly at expectation but if you are losing were you play big and winning were you play small it can be a disaster. When the opposite happens win/lose at expectation can be a huge windfall. I am guessing you answered this question by looking at your historic results to see if these last 2 outlying years were caused by the fate of your sessions at your most tolerant stores if you know what I mean.

I hope you figure it out or get more consistent results. Perhaps if this is the cause of the outlying years you can separate your records by spread to make sure you hit your multiple of N0 at the higher top bets. If they are not bet enough in a year you are asking for these types of results. It may just be the expected variance but if you aren't playing enough in a year at your top bets you can do something about that and reduce volatility. I am guessing you don't have a lot of wiggle room in both your and the casinos comfort zones but there may be something within that range that can help smooth things out a little if you pinpoint this as a large contributing factor. I hope you find that helpful. I have every confidence in your abilities and think you have picked what is strongest for your abilities and done what you can to maximize using your approaches strengths and limit the affects of its weaknesses. My only thought is on possibly doing better minimizing the volatility associated with the different spreads you use. The driving force of which is the larger spreads' results.

[Inv]

That is $27,345 vs my 4 previous years of 2010 ($78,925), 2011 ($62,050), 2012 ($81,075), 2013 ($115,425).

That's a livable wage right there! This year may not have gone so well, but your 5 year average is impressive. I wouldn't let a bad year get me down with numbers like those!

[Goodboy]

Thanks a lot KJ for the constant yearly exercise of sharing your results, experiences and thoughts. It helps a lot of us walking the same path, even if that's in different settings, betting ranges, circunstances and so on.

I do believe there's value on these kind of posts, both the good and the bad yearly results put us a little closer to "experiencing it", although there's nothing like the real thing. It's the kind of post where we go beyond the cold but important numbers and might get the feeling we are not all alone in this endeavour.

In my case this is my 4th year playing, although only the last 6 months have been as a pro. I started with a near zero bankroll, but replenishable, and both savings from my full time job and good results from year 3 and on, allowed me to increase my bankroll, decrease my RoR and play at my current conditions.

2011: Result -1.600; EV 6.300; hours played: 440
2012: Result: -13.800; EV 17.000; hours played: 230
2013: Result: 130.000; EV 105.000; hours played: 400
2014: Result: 330.000; EV 180.000; hours played: 400

As you might see, results and EV are very different in magnitude from one year to the next, specially considering that I've been through 3 different counts. Also several different spreads, overall RoRs, bankroll sizes and max bets.

[Three]

This happens to KJ's yearly tread every year. It becomes an annual results thread mostly from the successful counters. As everyone knows this was my most successful year as an AP. What they don't know and is more useful is in that span I had a $20K downswing that lasted over a month. While that may be common for other peoples approaches mine pretty much wins over any short period, That said i still seem to hit a $20K downswing once a year. It usually doesn't last more than a couple weeks though.

[BlackHead]

I call the getting stuck in the dark side of the math. I started off with my cousin training non-stop till we reached the level how to books recommended and he was wiped out of his $20,000 bankroll even after re-sizing at $10,000 he stopped and gave up at the $2000 point after 6 month of counting betting .5 kelly. I don't know how some of you guys live on blackjack as a main income id rather be half asleep from also having a part-time and feeding the bankroll for when those swings come in. Its a miracle KJ is still mentally sane. Good luck.