Big Ups

[iamjabes]

The last two weekends I have tried to make a go of this counting thing on my meager $4K BR w/ $800 Trip-BRs - playing $5 and $10 tables spreading to 5 units on SD,DD,6D.

First Saturday: 1.5 hrs of play , 1 casino, +36 Units
Second Saturday: 8 hrs of plays, 12 casinos, -3 units

Grand total up about 33 units after 9.5 hrs of play and almost two full Saturdays (probably with travelling and casino hopping spent 17 hours total to get in the 9.5 hrs of play - I dont live in a casino-rich area)

This weekend, I got a little taste of all the aspects discussed on this board. Obnoxious-to-aggressive ploppies, tables crowded with ploppies, clueless dealers, paranoia to non-existing (hopefully) heat when positive variance was experienced, some drunk chick hitting on me and asking what I should do on almost all of her hands, and of course, the toxic casino environment of second-hand smoke & alcohol and degenerates.

After doubling a Soft 18, which according to a ploppy I can never hit a 18, I was told "theres a book and I really need to read it sometime" in a dead serious and mad tone... I played a table full of drunk ploppies literally throwing their $$$ away it seemed to me, but much of the time theyd get lucky and out-earn me for no apparent reason other than variance/small sample size. And other stuff I wont get into...

There is quite a bit of work in getting the true count and proper bet spread close to 100% of the time and getting every BS and Ill-18 index play:

If we do this we are not guaranteed of winning.
If we win, we now have the pleasure of worrying about heat.

Despite positive variance (Something like $20 to $25 per hour, which is better than my real job but I also know is a bit higher than the EV I would have in the long term with this small BR and stakes) I feel kind of conflicted because I feel I am good at it but its not pragmatically a worthwhile venture for me at this point.

I now have the experience and not just the raw numbers showing that there's not enough advantage around to have a decent EV on such a small bankroll playing small stakes.

I've got new-found respect for APs who can make profit from this venture. The, I suppose, "skill" of being emotionless and not letting distractions bother you because you know in the long run you are playing a winning game. It's a tough grind, and I already know negative variance would affect me emotionally so I wont even make the attempt to continue this until I have a much bigger bankroll -- I just wonder if I should give up practicing altogether.

I still value the experience and am grateful I didnt have more at stake on a small bankroll to risk ruin, because the outcomes of individual max bets do affect me a bit and apparently the outcome of a small sample size of one session or one hand should not affect an AP.

It helps that I had a BS playing friend with me most of the time, I imagine the potential solitude of this activity only makes things worse.

Again, hats off to those of you who can make $$$ doing this. Its not just about counting cards, but the entire "Game".

[Ouchez]

Jabes,

That is alot of travel and I used to put in 9 hour of travel for 30 hours of DD play for many years.

If you can get free rooms and put in alot of hours I think the trip for you is ok, but then again the full tables are a drag and you mention nothing about rules etc.

Whether you decide to practice or not is your call, maybe you have realized you are not cut out for the hassles etc.,,most are not. Chances of making alot of money doing this are not too good unless you have other SKILLZ beside counting, and if conditions are not right you cannot use those other SKILLZ.

Thanks for the honest post.

Best,
Ouchez

[RS]

Looks like you've had a great first few trips to the casino (as an AP). Just remember that it's not always going to be that great.


As for the whole emotional part, it helps me think of it as just a game, no "money" or cash involved. Then again, I am mortal and do get happy when I get a blackjack or a nice juicy split + double with hefty bets out, and get a bit frustrated when I lose those similar bets. Most importantly (I think?), if you're playing with extra money (ie: money that you don't need for rent/food/etc.), then you'll make the better decision most of the time. In a way, it's just "monopoly" money.


Good luck, don't gamble with money you need, but invest with money that you don't need.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

iamjabes said:

"$4K BR w/ $800 Trip-BRs - playing $5 and $10 tables spreading to 5 units on SD,DD,6D."

Your $4,000 bankroll is appropriate for a $10 to $50 spread in a shoe game; and more than adequate

for a "pitch game", presuming good to excellent table conditions. Your "trip bankrolls" are NOT adequate.

The crucial problem is that for the shoe games it is clearly NOT profitable.

You have been quite lucky thus far. That and nothing more than that.

In all likelihood the games that you are playing have high House Advantages.

[bigharryonion]

you dont have to be a full time AP player. I mean your long run may be longer if you are not full time. But you can still always play with an advantage by counting cards and BS if you only play casually.