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Thread: For full time card counters, KJ, others..

  1. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Just today, you said “I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end”. Is that the way it works? No variance? No possibility of short-term losses. You can “expect” to win such and such of the next short term period? Whether your intent of not, you are misleading and influencing other players into thinking they should do what you do as there is no negative variance.
    Yeah. It does seem to work that way. Every 4 to 6 hours I seem to hit the same average hourly. At 20 hours there is only rare times that I am not at my hourly. If you understand what I have tried to explain you can understand why this is the case. I did have one losing trip which you conveniently forgot. I was at my normal hourly save 4 rounds. They were max bet max splits with doubles that were all swept by the dealer while playing 2 spots and turned my expected win into a loss of about the same magnitude. It was pretty amazing since normally I see one or zero such opportunities in a trip with the rare occurrence of 2. Four is unheard of but as you know you will see it all if you play long enough. Like you said you can't avoid bad runs. I have had several individual days where I was playing against aces and T's through lots of high counts and the dealer seemed to draw out constantly while my high count doubles rarely saw paint. These things happen but I remember after the last one thinking how moderate the damage was compared to what it used to be. You have to see the results of super accurate betting and strong playing decisions to believe it. Probably the biggest reason the downswings aren't very large is because I don't have to bet that big to make that hourly. I look at the wide bell curves of the linear approach and see it as lots of built in mistakes even if you count and play perfectly where you over or under bet your advantage and often times bet big into no advantage at all or bet small into a large advantage situation. You kept saying if what you say is true I don't know why you aren't using it to make serious money while all the while I was. I treaded carefully and still keep tweaking my approach. Everything I said was and still proves to be true. You may have done well to try to learn a few things rather than lead a lynch mob. I am sure there is some things that a smart guy could adapt to his game.
    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    And since I have gone down the path of Festivus and am airing my grievances towards you, again, whether you mean to or not, you come off as often talking down to many of us. It's very off-putting and leads one to not want to “like you” very much.
    That is a danger of trying to be a good teacher. The worst thing that can happen is for a student to feel this way and I try not to let it happen. Apparently I have failed to be successful with many. It does take some time to go back and find the posts by greats like ICount and EricFarmer et al that actually looked into the principles that all my efforts are based upon. I have constantly tried for year to control the variance of the game. Everything I have tried has been working toward that end. Tweaks and major overhauls repeatedly. I recently considered upping my max bet again but would only be able to do it at about half the stores in my rotation due to casino tolerances for max bet. That would add a great deal of variance to my overall results which to me is a step backwards so I elected to keep my bets at their level and accept I am playing as high a max bet as I believe is wise.

    You have taken the other approach and that adds lots of variance to your results including playing different spreads at different casinos. I know you understand what that means and accept it but your perceptions of how things work are based on your craziest of rides model of attack. People playing with other plans of attack may not have the same perceptions based on their experience.
    Last edited by Three; 12-26-2015 at 11:56 AM.

  2. #28


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    "Freightman, I have asked before and I respectfully ask again....please stop with all the KJ quitting and returning references. The truth is that I don't feel very welcome here and constantly get frustrated. And yes, I have brought some of that on myself, mostly out of frustration because so many other members that shared my views on a certain subject have exited for whatever reason and there are a variety of reasons for different players. I now mostly just feel “ganged up on” (and I am not a person that likes a good gang bang ) and have at times retaliated in ways I am not proud of. I am trying to move forward. "

    KJ P. Lurk
    Why not - it's true - isn't it. What I don't know is if I errored by thinking you had quit for the 14th time, and that this was your 15th appearance, or if you simply took a brief hiatus, and that we are still on 14.

    I've commented many times that you were a valuable poster. I've also commented in a prior post that you speak with forked tongue. I don't believe a word you say when you mutter things like community, getting along and so forth. Your holy crusade, along with prior acts makes you look like a misguided primadonna. Yet, your comments, free of their embellishments, contain solid practical advice. You just can't seem to get it through your head that their are several other valuable and practical viewpoints.

    If you want respect from me, you'll have to be consistent in your comments across many forums. Right now, it ain't there. I really don't give a shit if you stay or go - and yes, you have brought this upon yourself.

  3. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Yeah. It does seem to work that way. Every 4 to 6 hours I seem to hit the same average hourly. At 20 hours there is only rare times that I am not at my hourly.
    You will forgive me if I have a hard time believing this. Again frankly, in your first year of Full-time play, I think it is way too early (insignificant volume of data) to make such a determination.

    And frankly, if what you say is 100% true and you have found the holy grail of blackjack, higher earnings with minimal variation, I would strongly discourage you from sharing any of it. Variance, while sometime torturous, and often curse my many, myself included, is the very thing that makes AP blackjack possible. Without variance and with players winning their hourly expectation on a consistent basis, playable blackjack will disappear. There will be nothing but CSM, 6:5, video blackjack and whatever future options become available to take tracking cards in any manner out of the equation.

  4. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post

    You have taken the other approach and that adds lots of variance to your results including playing different spreads at different casinos. I know you understand what that means and accept it but your perceptions of how things work are based on your craziest of rides model attack. People playing with other plans of attack may not have the same perceptions based on their experience.
    T3: I prefer to say the game/count requires "peace" of mind. Without it, the game will take a "piece" from your mind and a large chunk from your wallet.

    Count is easy when all is good or steady. But when volatility hits, the first item that creeps into my mind is the count...and I get a new shuffle every 6 or 7 hands. So I get and applaud why you and your "clique" apply such a level of depth to your count.

    RollingStoned made a worthwhile comment in post #21. But I'm not sure your mission is to persuade others into your way of thinking. Is it important to you Flash, and Tarzan that others adopt your approach? If so, why? It seems to me it would be one heckuva a boring forum if y'all stopped posting.

    The importance of "Count" for me is tantamount to investing in the Healthcare sector vs paying medial bills for anxiety.

  5. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    "You will forgive me if I have a hard time believing this."
    "T3 is smarter than we are" is a remarkable understatement.

    Your simple failure to believe the redoubtable T3 gives extra

    (gratuitous) evidence that you lack respect for your superiors.
    .
    .

  6. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    If you want respect from me, you'll have to be consistent in your comments across many forums. Right now, it ain't there. I really don't give a shit if you stay or go - and yes, you have brought this upon yourself.
    You continue to be a "classy" individual.

  7. #33
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    .
    .

    Like Munchkin, (and his brother) for a long time I played high
    stakes cash and tournament backgammon, coast to coast.

    The tournaments were jammed with extremely high I.Q. characters.
    There were very many astro-physicists, actuaries, mathematicians,
    computer engineers, etc. I had to compete against; but I never
    imagined for a moment that I was within a standard deviation of
    their obviously elevated intellectual capacity.

    I learned humility.


    .
    .

  8. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    If you want respect from me, you'll have to be consistent in your comments across many forums. Right now, it ain't there. I really don't give a shit if you stay or go - and yes, you have brought this upon yourself.
    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    .
    .
    .


    "T3 is smarter than we are" is a remarkable understatement.

    Your simple failure to believe the redoubtable T3 gives extra

    (gratuitous) evidence that you lack respect for your superiors.
    .
    .
    What can I say. I tried. My good intentions have once again been met by the hostilities that have become the trademark of this site.


  9. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    RollingStoned made a worthwhile comment in post #21. But I'm not sure your mission is to persuade others into your way of thinking. Is it important to you Flash, and Tarzan that others adopt your approach? If so, why? It seems to me it would be one heckuva a boring forum if y'all stopped posting.
    How can they adapt my approach when all I have posted is my concept. Tarzan has at least shared his count but none of the information that you would need to use it. Flash uses Hiopt2/ASC which you can find information on if you try hard enough. there is not a lot of info on this count. So exactly how have Tarzan or I tried to get people to switch to our respective counts when we haven't even given them to anyone. We just try to inspire out of the box thinking so others can develop their own approaches that would work better for them.

    As for boring perhaps that is why the other sites are all about personal attacks. The site would bore people to tears without it. This site has all sorts of opinions being presented and people are free to choose what they want from the wealth and diversity of information.

  10. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Variance, while sometime torturous, and often curse my many, myself included, is the very thing that makes AP blackjack possible. Without variance and with players winning their hourly expectation on a consistent basis, playable blackjack will disappear. .
    The point of counting is to minimize variance and torture at least for me. The idea is to break it down to an hourly,daily, weekly, monthly expectation. That is what keeps "the cheese on your cracker" so to speak. I feel okay about playing roughly 60K for $25k annually with limited options. I realize this is pale in comparison to making six figures over the course of 70k hands. But I'm willing to play 60K for $25K doesn't mean I play that many hands. IF I can do it in 30K then that's even better.

    Few will ever be able to do what T3 and Tarzan do over the course of 6 decks. So the blackjack world is safe. Flasher followers would pose more of a threat.

  11. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    ..
    I learned humility.
    .
    .
    Now "that's" funny. Put Flash in a room alone with Zee for 15 minutes and he'll be able to completely turn his head around and spew green stuff like Linda Blair from The Exorcist.

  12. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Why not - it's true - isn't it. What I don't know is if I errored by thinking you had quit for the 14th time, and that this was your 15th appearance, or if you simply took a brief hiatus, and that we are still on 14.
    .
    The replay officials had your concern under review. It is determined that we are still in the same thread. Therefore, Ric Flair is still 14 time World Champion.
    Whoa!

    ...and Norm Wales is having a nice Christmas weekend. So far.

  13. #39
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    L. O. L.

    .
    .
    Maybe someone will take all of the posts by the "usual suspects"

    and publish it; then I can write a screenplay and sell it as a T.V.

    Soap Opera.
    . . . . . . L. O. L.
    .
    .


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