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Thread: For full time card counters, KJ, others..

  1. #1


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    For full time card counters, KJ, others..

    How many hours a year/week do you actually play, that is sitting at a BJ table?

    i am trying to find how much I can expect to win in a year with a BR of $25k, playing min. $25 games (DD or 6 deck) and associated probabilities.
    Last edited by ZeeBabar; 12-26-2015 at 05:30 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    How many hours a year/week do you actually play, that is sitting at a BJ table?

    I was playing with the calculators on this site and just used 3500 hours a year, playing $25 units with a bank roll of $25000 and it seems to show that there is a 100% probability of doubling your BR in a year (playing 3500 hours). The probabilities start decreasing beyond winning $25k.

    Maybe I am not understanding it. Do you play 3500 hours in a year?
    Zee, that's 70 hours a week - not achievable. Chop the 3500 hours in half, and you should still have 100% probability of doubling - then chop that in half again. Try to use some logic here such as practical hours and accounting for the quality of games. I don't think you're understanding it.

  3. #3
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    REALISTICALLY speaking

    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    "Chop the 3500 hours in half, and you should still have 100% probability of doubling - then chop that in half again."
    You are suggesting 3,500/4 = 875 hours per annum.
    That is double/treble what professional actually play.
    It equates to 73 hours a month. Holy Cow !
    I am not simming this, but taking into consideration
    the dismal table conditions and the conservative "style"
    of play of ZeeBabar, some Betting and Playing Errors,
    etc. -- he would be optimistic in anticipating 1 unit (or
    $25) per hour. This is $25 X 73 [monthly] = $1,823.
    That is a monthly figure, so per annum it is $21,875
    Even if this many hours can be put in in an area with
    few casinos, without a barring, ZeeBabar is way too
    old to be putting in an absurd number of hours for long.
    The stress and variance will be causing pain.

    ZeeBabar ... try to understand that computer simulations and
    projections of R.O.R., etc. etc. are based upon accurate and error
    free play; and you need to be humble and understand that your
    play is just recreational. Your 'modal'
    scenario is to break even
    or win or lose a trivial sum. Be realistic.

    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 12-26-2015 at 06:53 AM.

  4. #4
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    This is my first year as a pro. It is not over yet but about 360 hours so far and $90K win from counting and $28K from other AP play. I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end. If I get the time in that would be 385 hours counting this year. Average about an hour a day.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    You are suggesting 3,500/4 = 875 hours per annum.
    That is double/treble what professional actually play.
    It equates to 73 hours a month. Holy Cow !
    I am not simming this, but taking into consideration
    the dismal table conditions and the conservative "style"
    of play of ZeeBabar, some Betting and Playing Errors,
    etc. -- he would be optimistic in anticipating 1 unit (or
    $25) per hour. This is $25 X 73 [monthly] = $1,823.
    That is a monthly figure, so per annum it is $21,875
    Even if this many hours can be put in in an area with
    few casinos, without a barring, ZeeBabar is way too
    old to be putting in an absurd number of hours for long.
    The stress and variance will be causing pain.

    ZeeBabar ... try to understand that computer simulations and
    projections of R.O.R., etc. etc. are based upon accurate and error
    free play; and you need to be humble and understand that your
    play is just recreational. Your 'modal'
    scenario is to break even
    or win or lose a trivial sum. Be realistic.

    3 points
    1- flash, the idea was to keep chopping in half until his roll didn't double anymore, my omission.
    2- CV data will accept errors per hour. I always sim perfect play, because that's what I like to measure myself against. Might be humorous to sim 10-15 errors per hour against various shitty conditions.
    3- KJ quit again, in theory, which puts the title of the thread up for edit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    "This is my first year as a pro. It is not over yet but about 360 hours so far and $90K win from counting and $28K from other AP play. I expect to win about another 6-10K in the around 25 hours I anticipate playing before the years end. If I get the time in that would be 385 hours counting this year. Average about an hour a day."
    Knowing Tthree personally, (and having often seen his amazing play),
    over quite some years, I can say that he is both truthful and honorable;
    and these extraordinary figures jive closely with what he has shared
    with me numerous times throughout the year. What makes it profound
    is that such an extraordinary result can be had playing GREEN. I truly
    believe that he is the BEST player extant, bar none. My cap is doffed.


    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 12-26-2015 at 08:32 AM.

  7. #7
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    I go with the 40/2000/5000 rule. Meaning a winrate of $40 based on 100 hands per hour gets me $2k per month over the course of 5k hand per month. The key is to get 5k in "quality" play. Could I get more? Perhaps, but that will increase the risk of even less future play opportunities.

    Flash mentioned the game can get downright boring at times. I hit that stage years ago. So for me, it's like anything other investment. My time, knowledge, work ethic, and money equal a certain tradeoff. Too much time invested at the blackjack tables could result in other investments and/or aspects of life suffering. Balance and normalcy are easy words to say - hard for some folks to achieve.

    Do I always play $5k hands per month? Heck no. Do I always hit $2k per month? Usually. The key is to "find the" and "play your" best game possible.
    So does roughly $25K a year make me a pro or AP? I don't really know or care for that matter. I'll leave that up to those who annointed themselves worthy to sit in judgement of others.

    The same approach goes into NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, stocks, and real estate. They don't individually always hit goal. In fact, blackjack often the least volatile. But as a collective group? I can't complain.

  8. #8


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    Folks, I made a mistake in my earlier posting that I edited. However, you saw the error message I posted. I was thinking of 365 weeks a year and playing 10 hours per week and that would be about 3650 a year.

    Now, 10 hours a week at the tables is not all that much or is it?

    These days, the swings are higher but using optimal betting from CVCX, I have been ramping up a lot more. When I was playing earlier, I would go from $25 minimum to $50 at TC+2, then $75 at TC+3, $100-$125 at TC+4 and max bet was just $150. Now, I go to $100-$125 at TC+2 and my max bet is $200 at the DD games. This jump has lead to better success.

    My goal was to see if I had the mental potential to play this game successfully given my extremely fiscally conservative nature. I still do not think I can play the 6 deck game at $25 min. because I am most uncomfortable playing over $200 per hand (given possible splits and doubles) so I play the 6 deck games at the $10 or $15 min. table and the DD game at the $25 MIN. tables. I still have 3-4 months of experimenting left and it would decide whether I will move to Florida or another city with 3-4 casino options and inexpensive travel to BJ destinations.

  9. #9
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    ZeeBaBar, I am going to answer because, unlike others in the community, I.....well, I don't want to go as far as to say “have taken a liking to you”, but I am certainly willing to answer questions and help you when I can. But, in the future, I would prefer that you address me on the other site or through email, since we communicate occasionally by email.

    Remember, because of personal differences and opinions, I am now no longer credible, so you need to take anything I say with a grain of salt.

    I don't measure my play in terms of time. I count only rounds played, because that is what really translates into dollars (over the long term). I play in the neighborhood of 70,000 plus rounds per year. (this year it was much lower as at the half way point of the year, I made the decision to really slow down and take some time off, basically playing part-time the second half of the year).

    I generally AVERAGE about 200 rounds per day and a day is anywhere from 4-6 hours of actual time. Some days where the sessions all seem to go really short due to quickly showing my spread or the count quickly going negative, I might end up registering 150 or 175 rounds. Other days when I hit a couple heads up sessions and can push the envelope a little, maybe show my spread a second time because the game is moving so quickly, I might get in 300-350 rounds (sometimes more). Also because I spread my play around, approximately 4 days a week, I am on the overnight shift (which I have grown to dislike very much), but those days or rather “nights” tend to be a little longer (usually 8 hours as opposed to 4-6) and I usually register more rounds and head up opportunities.

    A lot of players might think 70,000 a year rounds translates into 700 hours. It doesn't for me. I average far fewer than 100/rounds an hour. Probably more in the neighborhood of 40 rounds per hour. But I try to make them high quality rounds. I do this by 3 different techniques. 1.) aggressively wonging out of negative counts. 2.) tracking multiple tables and jumping directly from negative/neutral counts changes the true count frequencies in my favor, meaning I see and play a higher percentage of positive and max bets opportunities within those rounds played. And 3.) just general scouting for better opportunities (mostly penetration). While I have somewhere around 30-35 “playable” games in my rotation at all times, I tend to lean just a little more heavily on the better games....just as much as I think I can get away with without “crossing a line”.

  10. #10


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    Thanks KJ. Your BJ skills are always credible to me and also to others at this site. You play a certain way, believe in it and for that style of play you have great credibility.

    When you say that you average 200 rounds per day, that is 2-4 hours a day and assuming you play 4 days a week, that would be about 500-700 hours a tear.

    I am not moving to Las Vegas and there is so much more to learn. Particularly with bet spreads taking heat into consideration. Here, I have gotten away with playing rated because I had been using a small spread and winning too little to really be a concern and now that I am betting more optimally, I think I will eventually need to learn some tricks. Heading out to Tunica in about 2 hours.

  11. #11
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    Interesting post KJ. By rounds, I assume you mean hands? I count in terms of decks. Meaning 1 time through a single deck is 6 1/2 hands. So 16 decks is 100 hands. Of course, pen is a high consideration. So around 300 hands per day, 4 days a week, works out to about 60k hands per year. Of course, there are extremes. One day I might play 600 hands and break even. The next I will have made goal in 20 hands. So, if you play 70k hands per year and make six figures then you truly are an expert at identifying "perfect" situations.

    This, I'll repeat "this" is the point your Hi Lo followers are missing. They simply do not have the volume of games to employ your strategy. It goes without saying few have your instincts and they will never achieve same by playing in little cow towns. Thus there are only two solutions. 1.) stop playing 2.) get smarter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    When you say that you average 200 rounds per day, that is 2-4 hours a day and assuming you play 4 days a week, that would be about 500-700 hours a tear.
    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    A lot of players might think 70,000 a year rounds translates into 700 hours. It doesn't for me. I average far fewer than 100/rounds an hour. Probably more in the neighborhood of 40 rounds per hour. But I try to make them high quality rounds. I do this by 3 different techniques. 1.) aggressively wonging out of negative counts. 2.) tracking multiple tables and jumping directly from negative/neutral counts changes the true count frequencies in my favor, meaning I see and play a higher percentage of positive and max bets opportunities within those rounds played. And 3.) just general scouting for better opportunities (mostly penetration). While I have somewhere around 30-35 “playable” games in my rotation at all times, I tend to lean just a little more heavily on the better games....just as much as I think I can get away with without “crossing a line”.
    KJ said his best guess on his average rounds per hour is about 40 rounds/hour (I think he is counting more than just time playing in this hour). At 70K rounds/year that makes 1750 hours/year that he considers being spent ob counting BJ. That makes his hourly income for time spent on BJ $45/hour assuming an average yearly income of $80K. I suspect KJ has been quite conservative in his figures and has included time a lot of us would not include in his figures but there they are Zee. Your 500-700 hours is way off the 1750 hours derived using math and his numbers to get the figures. I hope your play is not this sloppy.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Knowing Tthree personally, (and having often seen his amazing play),
    over quite some years,

    Flash (and friends), I respectfully ask you to think about these types of statements. Yes, we all realize a core little group of you guys are friends and personally know each other. That's great. But having driven off many from the site that aren't part of what now has become the little “clique” (T3's word) of this site, you guys seem to want to vouch for each other, in an effort to further legitimize and elevate each other, while at the same time, whether intentionally or not, devaluing others.

    The end result is anyone not in this “clique” feels like an outside and is hesitant to participate. And I am not talking about just myself. Ken's site, went through a similar thing towards the end when people that attended those “bashes” that CP held annually where the “in crowd” and those of us, including some really legitimate successful and knowledgeable AP's, that valued there anonymitity, as I do, were made to feel like outsiders to the club.

    You don't need to 'vouch' for and elevate each other. Nor do you need to try to discredit others not in your little circle. Members can figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is mostly just talking (not a reference to anyone in particular). Let's try to let the site revolve back to an open community where all are welcome, rather than the little private clubhouse that it has become.

    Freightman, I have asked before and I respectfully ask again....please stop with all the KJ quitting and returning references. The truth is that I don't feel very welcome here and constantly get frustrated. And yes, I have brought some of that on myself, mostly out of frustration because so many other members that shared my views on a certain subject have exited for whatever reason and there are a variety of reasons for different players. I now mostly just feel “ganged up on” (and I am not a person that likes a good gang bang ) and have at times retaliated in ways I am not proud of. I am trying to move forward.

    The site is about sharing experiences, for the benefit of others and benefiting from others who share their experiences and that is precisely why I continue to read, even when I don't feel like participating. I continue to learn and benefit from members here, even some that I am not all that fond of, so I am not going to stop reading the site, no matter how much I choose or not choose to participate in the future. Get over that.

    One other thing that has been repeatedly mentioned is that I am intolerant of other methods and style (including counts) of attack and think my way is the only way. NOTHING could be further from the truth. Quite the contrary, I know my methods are most elementary. That's what best fits my limited abilities. I take those elementary methods and put my own twist on things to best suit me and my situation, which includes location.

    Believe me, I am not trying to mold others towards my method of play and attack. That really is very detrimental to me and my longevity plans. As a matter of fact there have been a number of members/players from several sites that I participate on that have privately told me they relocated to Las Vegas, because of me and my sharing of experiences. One such player (from Bj21) I rented my second home to for a year and eventually sold that home to him. Talk about creating your own competition.

    A new year is approaching. I don't know what it brings. But I would like to see this site be more welcoming to everyone, so that we all, no matter what level of participation from the “inner-circle group” to the many “lurkers” can better benefit from a wider variety of opinions, views and experiences, and maybe even draw a few of the legit members that have vacated the site on their own back or encourage those that have all but ceased participating, to once again participate more.




    Last edited by KJ; 12-26-2015 at 09:58 AM.

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