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Thread: CVCX: Risk of Ruin Given a Goal and Time Constraint.

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    CVCX: Risk of Ruin Given a Goal and Time Constraint.

    Hello,
    When "Win rate per 100 hands"=0 why is RoR=0,00% ?
    If "Win rate per 100 hands"=0,00000001 then RoR is plausible as 50% for double bankroll try.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I'd need all the variables.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    For example ...
    2.png
    And, I think, any function with fixed goal.
    Last edited by Phoebe; 12-20-2015 at 12:28 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Interesting. It should give a numbers out of range error as the double-barrier formula doesn't work with a win rate of zero. My guess is that it isn't getting the error because you are using a comma as the decimal separator. That shouldn't matter. It'll take some time to find out why it does.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    It should give a numbers out of range error as the double-barrier formula doesn't work with a win rate of zero.
    I was ignoring that. Thanks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    My guess is that it isn't getting the error because you are using a comma as the decimal separator. That shouldn't matter. It'll take some time to find out why it does.
    If it could help, I just changed for a point in (french) Windows 10 Control Panel. No change.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Number format shouldn't matter. CV uses whatever the format is.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    On p. 136 of BJA3, you will find the formula in question. I stipulate, in the very latest edition, in the second paragraph of text, that the expectation must be positive. Unfortunately, the word "positive" does not appear in earlier editions.

    If you look at the formula, you will see that if mu (e.v.) = 0, then the hyperbolic sine function (sinh) also equals zero, and since that appears in the denominator of the fraction, the expression becomes meaningless, or undefined. In short, the formula doesn't work if mu = 0.

    Don

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    I understand. As Norman said, program should had display "Undefined" or "Out of range".
    As when EV tend to 0 function tend to a finite value, could'nt we said that in practice value for 0 is that finite value ?

    I apologize, Don. My english is far poorer than your french.
    Last edited by Phoebe; 12-20-2015 at 04:40 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Who would have thought sinh would be used in a blackjack calculation?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Who would have thought sinh would be used in a blackjack calculation?
    Good point, Norm... I would've thought that "cosh" had more to do with blackjack

    Sorry... couldn't resist!

    Dog Hand

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Interesting. It should give a numbers out of range error as the double-barrier formula doesn't work with a win rate of zero.
    ... as an other calculator do ...

    7.jpg

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