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Thread: Troubling Negative Variance

  1. #14
    Senior Member Goatlife's Avatar
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    but i doubt white guy racked up forty hours at the same joint

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Frostbyte View Post
    I believe these results are within the standard deviation but they are nonetheless troubling. Am I overreacting?
    Yes but it's natural to do so and everyone else that's played has felt the same. Blackjack's a tough game, especially if you are playing with a thin edge like counting and you need to get used to big swings. When you take a big loss, even though you know it's probably just variance, you will naturally question your playing ability. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing as it will force you to confirm that you're playing accurately - so take a day off to recover, and check yourself out on the things that could possibly go wrong

    1. Running count - do your drills at home to make sure you're quick and accurate.
    2. Indices - go through your flashcards again to make sure you're quick.
    3. Deck estimation - e.g. http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sho...eck-estimation
    4. Bet levels - just run the numbers again to make sure you're not betting too much for your bankroll based on the rules and conditions that you're getting.

    If you have all of this, then you know that you're playing a winning game. Hang in there and good luck!

  3. #16
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    Having a 1% edge does not guarantee success in the short run, and so far as I know, no one can accurately predict when the long run will come. Another variable is the min/max we use from time to time. You may win repeatedly, racking up impressive numbers, then decide to up the ante (all within an acceptable RoR) and have your head handed to you. In this case, your numbers may look good, but you cash may really take a hit.

    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.

  4. #17


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    Feeling your pain here and now. Down small-ish 5-figures in the last 8 hour sessions.

    Keeping accurate play session records you know are honest and complete really helps. When you know with near-certainty you're winning the war, losing a battle doesn't rattle you so badly.

  5. #18
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roswell Crash Survivor View Post
    When you know with near-certainty you're winning the war, losing a battle doesn't rattle you so badly.
    Well put.

    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.

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