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Thread: Continuing to lose and probabilities

  1. #14


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    Forget the sporting analogies, I just lost another 1.27k and it was the same old story. I lost every stretch of purportedly positive EV while the ploppies gladly won, mocking my apparent (to them) poor play in the meantime. I am now in a losing streak of 12k of which 7.3k was lost in the past nine sessions.

    This has finally worn me down and I have decided that this is my last session for the foreseeable future. It is a pity because I live in the only place left in Australia basically where there remains a game worth playing. I am losing at a rate far greater than what a basic strategy player would lose flat betting my average bet. If the median ploppy does better than me why I do I even bother. And let me say that my negative variation extends far beyond the blackjack table; it pervades most of my life.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    This has finally worn me down and I have decided that this is my last session for the foreseeable future.
    This is the most rational statement I a have read from you. I would urge you to define the foreseeable future as "Forever". Your tolerance for a game with drastic highs and lows is inadequate for the task.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    I live in the only place left in Australia basically where there remains a game worth playing
    I do not see the BJ "down under" being worthwhile,

    but I guess that the Pontoon games are exploitable.

    So ... where is this "only place"?

    It is apparent now that you have mentioned that your

    life is not going well, that you are among the accursed.

    Did your grandmother cuss out a gypsie?

    Oops, there aren't any gypsies down under.

  4. #17


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    what i am assuming is the Op is having a bad time in his regular life and it is also getting into his bj hobbies. So they are both going bad.If that is the case i would suggest him to take a step back and see the big picture.

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    " ... suggest him to take a step back and see the big picture."
    Indeed the O.P. needs a retreat where he can relax, get away from the casinos,

    and prioritize his problems. He might need only a few days. He may need a lifetime.

  6. #19
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    After 9 months of steady play, my bankroll has suffered a 33% DROP(!)
    My previous losing streak lasted 18 .months and fell by 62%. On top of that I have to endure the relentless barrings. But overall I'm still far ahead of this miserable game. If you don't hate the game, you're not betting high enough.
    Last edited by Jabberwocky; 11-27-2015 at 02:14 PM.

  7. #20


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    The worst thing is that you lose every stretch of supposed EV and at a higher rate than not just basic strategy but the ploppies as well. It is God teaching us that gambling = evil.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  8. #21


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    Last night I went stargazing, 20 miles out of town, under the pristine skies of Dorothy Land.

    I found it somewhat ironic that I was counting stars (to quote my favourite song).

    I have formulated a preliminary plan:

    - Any previous monies lost was due to bad variance; there was nothing I did to alter my play and I never tried to chase losses
    - I will take a break for 2-3 weeks and probably practice on Verite until I am sure that I can play error free before actually returning for real life play
    - I will resize my spread to further reduce my ROR; I will play at 60% of my previous EV but with a correspondingly smaller SD; will assess results in the medium term to see whether this can change later. Note that reducing spread does not change the amount of comps that I earn as they are calculated by the most common bet (minimum) rather than the average bet, as stated in the policy of the casino.
    - I will Wong in/out more aggressively, as the tolerance of each individual dealer allows, as I know the relative tolerances for each staff member at my venue.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  9. #22


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    Ok - since we're all crying in our beer - I need to vent a bit about today's trip to my local store -

    Started at the $25 DD game - straight downhill, topped off by losing 8 bets in a row, including a few max bets. Down $1,000 at this point. Table got too crowded so I moved on.

    Back-counted some of the 8-deck offerings and found a wong-in at +2. The count never goes anywhere from there, so I waste an hour or so at breakeven.

    On to the high-limit DD game where the dealer is standing by himself. I'm thinking some "quality playing time". I played through a shuffle or two with the pit man hanging all over me, because there was nothing else for him to do and he wanted to chat. I'm doing ok until I hit "max bet decimation" (3 or 4 losses in a row). The coup de grace was my 9 against the dealer's 4 when the count was in the +10 range. I had super max bet out, double down, and well.... So I'm now down about $2,500 ...

    So I start walking out of the casino and couldn't resist checking out the $25 DD game on the way out. Looks good - only 2 people at the table, so I start reaching for my wallet and some more balloons when I notice that another CC is one of the payers. We've never talked, but we both know what's up, so we defer to each other's territory...

    I figure I'll hit the craps table on the way out and play rated for the cover benefits. I drop $300 down. It lasts 15 minutes - point 7 out, point 7 out, etc...

    Happy Thanksgiving to all...

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Ok - since we're all crying in our beer - I need to vent a bit about today's trip to my local store -

    Started at the $25 DD game - straight downhill, topped off by losing 8 bets in a row, including a few max bets. Down $1,000 at this point. Table got too crowded so I moved on.

    Back-counted some of the 8-deck offerings and found a wong-in at +2. The count never goes anywhere from there, so I waste an hour or so at breakeven.

    On to the high-limit DD game where the dealer is standing by himself. I'm thinking some "quality playing time". I played through a shuffle or two with the pit man hanging all over me, because there was nothing else for him to do and he wanted to chat. I'm doing ok until I hit "max bet decimation" (3 or 4 losses in a row). The coup de grace was my 9 against the dealer's 4 when the count was in the +10 range. I had super max bet out, double down, and well.... So I'm now down about $2,500 ...

    So I start walking out of the casino and couldn't resist checking out the $25 DD game on the way out. Looks good - only 2 people at the table, so I start reaching for my wallet and some more balloons when I notice that another CC is one of the payers. We've never talked, but we both know what's up, so we defer to each other's territory...

    I figure I'll hit the craps table on the way out and play rated for the cover benefits. I drop $300 down. It lasts 15 minutes - point 7 out, point 7 out, etc...

    Happy Thanksgiving to all...
    Of all your three options, the best one is backcount the 8D shoe game and only play when TC is +2 or higher. It is far better than head-to-head at high limit or play-all double deck game.

  11. #24
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    "Back-Counting" is not always feasible, and sometimes

    even when it is, it is still not suitably profitable.

    If you are making [averaged] $100 bets and are getting 20 hands

    per hour, with an [averaged] advantage of 0.75% (realistically),

    you'll be making all of $15 an hour.

    NOTE: These are somewhat optimistic figures for an 8 decker.


  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    "Back-Counting" is not always feasible, and sometimes

    even when it is, it is still not suitably profitable.

    If you are making [averaged] $100 bets and are getting 20 hands

    per hour, with an [averaged] advantage of 0.75% (realistically),

    you'll be making all of $15 an hour.

    NOTE: These are somewhat optimistic figures for an 8 decker.

    Many casinos have no mid shoe entry sign to prevent wong-in. But it seems that BigDaddy doesn't have that problem in that casino. So I said it is his best option.

  13. #26
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    IF permitted, the rules will be poor as a rule.

    IF the game is 8 decks with H17 the player

    edge with a Hi-Lo +2 TC is just 0.34%

    Yuck. Betting an average of $100 nets

    all of 34 cents a hand played! At 20

    hands per hour that is $6.80

    Have fun.

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