Backounting question for a beginner

[Banjoclan]

Hi,

I know when one back counts it's best to be as inconspicuous as possible but what's a good strategy to do this for someone who hasn't done it much/at all? The few times I've done it has been when I've been in the pit and trying to make it look like I'm deciding on a game. I'd pick out a new shoe or one that had only a few cards discarded and count a little while. If it went negative I'd move on and do the same thing either in a different part of the pit or a different pit altogether. I know this isn't ideal as it's probably pretty obvious what I'm doing, but it seems like there aren't any very good ways to do this on the down low. Anyway, any help would be appreciated.

[stopgambling]

It all depend on the crew and the area you are playing at. You will learn by experience.You can just watch and not play at all to see how the crew react and how other ploppies act. You can learn a lot by observing and immersing yourself into the environment. It is not absolute that you went to a casino to count cards and you must play.

[Stealth]

I know when one back counts it's best to be as inconspicuous as possible but what's a good strategy to do this for someone who hasn't done it much/at all? The few times I've done it has been when I've been in the pit and trying to make it look like I'm deciding on a game. I'd pick out a new shoe or one that had only a few cards discarded and count a little while. If it went negative I'd move on and do the same thing either in a different part of the pit or a different pit altogether. I know this isn't ideal as it's probably pretty obvious what I'm doing, but it seems like there aren't any very good ways to do this on the down low. Anyway, any help would be appreciated.

As is my opinion, blackjack advantage play is about (pick your own numbers) 25% technical and 75% art. This topic is clearly in the art form.

First, use your own observation, "it's probably pretty obvious what I'm doing". If that is the case then you should not back count that store at that time. Consider using a spotter instead.

Generally speaking, back counting is best used in busy pit and casino environments with good traffic. Note that enough traffic will ultimately fill up the tables and back counting will be impossible. If you are back counting for yourself then you are likely more obvious (as you sit to play) than if you are back counting for a partner to call in. I have found the later to be easier to disguise.

If your protocol is to BC in and only play positive counts, then do not leave if you complete the shoe. Allow the dealer to start the next shoe, with you betting the most appropriate amount advisable (maybe table minimum or not, depends on the bet sizes in use in positive counts), if the count goes up or you win the hand, play again. Play until the count is negative and you lose the hand. Then leave. This will give the pit (surveillance also) the appearance that you are not just playing positive counts as you played off the top.

Walk around the semi busy pit and stop to watch an overhead sports event on TV (over the pits). Act like you are talking on your phone while counting. Do not stare at the table, time your counts to coincide with the dealer completing the deal. Watching the reconciling of each hand, you can be either detached and appearing not interested or engaged and cheering for the winning player. It is the art of knowing the best act. Often times talking to a player at the table can diffuse some suspicion. Judgement.

Engage the dealer when asked if you want to join the game, "not just yet, haven't played but a few times and the last time was a couple of years ago, just wanted to refresh my memory of how to play". Utter bullshit, but it, or creations of your own imagination, can work, at least for a while.

I encourage you to also develop the art of wonging out, as opposed to back counting. Not playing 50-60% of the negative counts is a powerful enhancement. Take a phone call, go to the bathroom, skip a round because the moon is too bright, whatever, just reduce the negative counts you are playing.

Remember it is art, there are few if any rules to guide you and almost none that fit all situations.

Hope this helps

[Banjoclan]

Yes, it did help. Thank you both for your posts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bigdaddy]

As is my opinion, blackjack advantage play is about (pick your own numbers) 25% technical and 75% art. This topic is clearly in the art form.

First, use your own observation, "it's probably pretty obvious what I'm doing". If that is the case then you should not back count that store at that time. Consider using a spotter instead.

Generally speaking, back counting is best used in busy pit and casino environments with good traffic. Note that enough traffic will ultimately fill up the tables and back counting will be impossible. If you are back counting for yourself then you are likely more obvious (as you sit to play) than if you are back counting for a partner to call in. I have found the later to be easier to disguise.

If your protocol is to BC in and only play positive counts, then do not leave if you complete the shoe. Allow the dealer to start the next shoe, with you betting the most appropriate amount advisable (maybe table minimum or not, depends on the bet sizes in use in positive counts), if the count goes up or you win the hand, play again. Play until the count is negative and you lose the hand. Then leave. This will give the pit (surveillance also) the appearance that you are not just playing positive counts as you played off the top.

Walk around the semi busy pit and stop to watch an overhead sports event on TV (over the pits). Act like you are talking on your phone while counting. Do not stare at the table, time your counts to coincide with the dealer completing the deal. Watching the reconciling of each hand, you can be either detached and appearing not interested or engaged and cheering for the winning player. It is the art of knowing the best act. Often times talking to a player at the table can diffuse some suspicion. Judgement.

Engage the dealer when asked if you want to join the game, "not just yet, haven't played but a few times and the last time was a couple of years ago, just wanted to refresh my memory of how to play". Utter bullshit, but it, or creations of your own imagination, can work, at least for a while.

I encourage you to also develop the art of wonging out, as opposed to back counting. Not playing 50-60% of the negative counts is a powerful enhancement. Take a phone call, go to the bathroom, skip a round because the moon is too bright, whatever, just reduce the negative counts you are playing.

Remember it is art, there are few if any rules to guide you and almost none that fit all situations.

Hope this helps

Excellent analysis - thanks Stealth.

It's hard to describe the right conditions for back counting, but in the words of Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart: "I know it when I see it".

[Romes]

While I agree with Stealth's breakdown (and he does have very useful information about wonging), I disagree that this situation is about art. Let's "technically" look at it...

What most people don't realize about Wonging and EV, is that if your plan is to Wong in spreading $50-$150, the same EV can be achieved by just PLAYING THE WHOLE SHOE with a barely higher spread and wonging out in negative counts for phone calls, bathroom breaks, "sitting out cuz you lost too many in a row", "the cards need to change", etc, etc, etc.

If you simply use a PLAY THROUGH strategy, betting $25-$200, by upping your max bet by $50 and betting smaller ($25) from TC -1 to +1, that negates the negative effects of actually playing those hands. Thus, your EV will remain the same, or go UP, and you get to play more while looking less suspicious standing still behind every table counting until it goes positive.

If you give me your actual wong in spread and the rules for your game, I'll mathematically prove this for you.

[Stealth]

Thus, your EV will remain the same, or go UP, and you get to play more while looking less suspicious standing still behind every table counting until it goes positive.

AND you will be there longer showing a range of bets that has a high potential of becoming disastrous. There are always trade offs.

If it is not art, then I would welcome your detailed protocol for back counting.

[Romes]

...If it is not art, then I would welcome your detailed protocol for back counting.

Sure... Don't do it. Back counting is a job for a spotter in team play, not a solo player. Unless you're in Vegas with 100 places to play then back counting has no long term hope for local casinos. The excuses such as "it's been a while" will all start to fade away when people start remembering your face/etc. Back counting also generates a LOT more potential heat than playing more. By simply using some cover, playing different shifts, maybe modifying your spread every so often (to keep your EV the same and simply change your betting amounts) also keeps this to a much more minimum. I've been counting for a decade (not saying any longer or shorter than anyone else) and I guarantee at my local shops I would have gotten popped a long time ago if all I did was back count. Like you said, back counting works best on busy times, which will be weekend nights. You can't go on the same shifts with the same employees without running a much higher risk of getting popped. Not only am I making MORE per hour by playing, my comps are better, and I've never had any heat at any of my local places. Playing with free cover, cover with a cost, and being intelligent about not seeing the same dealers/PB's every day are things any counter should be aware of.

That was edited in, the rest of this was just my next post:

I feel like this is the pitfall most people find themselves in because they don't fully (mathematically/technically) understand how to have a winning game. They get caught up on the concepts of "SCORE", Counting Systems, and RoR... Which YES, one does need to understand. Then they completely forget to actually understand the real mathematics behind the game. What does each TC really mean to you? What is your gain per per hand, per true count? How do you counter-act negative true counts simply by adjusting your spread?

Adjusting ones spread can have a magnitude of effects on the types of games one can play, how often you can play (play through vs wong, play down to TC -1 vs TC -2, etc, etc).

Here's an example. Let's say you're playing a "standard" game with a .5% HE. Normally you Wong in at TC +2 and spread $50-$200 (TC +2 = 50, TC +3 = 100, TC +4 = 150, TC +5 and up = 200). The hourly EV of this game (assuming 100 hands per hour) is $42.00/hour. Your gain per hand on each TC -1, 0, and +1, are 0 because you're not playing those hands (where as normally the gain per hand here would be negative because this is when the house still has an edge). Your gain per hand on your TC 2 and up is now your hourly EV since you don't have any negative gain per hands pulling it down.

Now let's say you want to simply tweak your spread so that you can play more often, not look like you're wonging behind tables, get more comps, whatever your reason may be...

Let's take the SAME .5% HE game and apply a $25-$250 spread (TC -1 to TC +2 = $25, TC +2 = $75, TC +3 = 150, TC +4 and up = 250). Let's also note this is a tiny 1-5 spread and you should be spreading even more. All you've done here is upped your Max bet by $50, which will slightly effect your RoR so you should be aware of that and what it means for your Bankroll. However, now let's run the numbers...

Your hourly EV (again assuming 100 hands per hour) with this spread at that game is $49.94/hour. Notice that you're now making $7 more per hour, and you're playing more, looking less suspicious, earning more comps, etc, etc. Let's also not forget about what each of these True Counts actually means! Your gain per hand on TC +2 and up is now actually 57.44, but since you have -7.5 associated with TC -1 to TC +2 that's where the balance comes from. Upping your max bet slightly offsets the negative gain per hand from these counts you weren't previously playing.

#math =)

I actually have simple spread sheets linked on Google Docs so that you could play with your spread, see your gain per hand, and calculate your EV/etc for ANY game of blackjack given a house edge. They're in association with a few articles I wrote for WoV and I can link those if requested, but these hopefully will help you understand the actual math of the game and what TC's mean to you a lot more.

1 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
2 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
6 Deck (10): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Stealth]

What happened to your variance and how much did it change my N0?

[Romes]

What happened to your variance and how much did it change my N0?

Your variance will go up a bit, but honestly not drastically as the variance you're adding is mostly at the low TC hands/bets. Modifying the top of your spread is where any of the added variance would come, but in this situation it's simply from $200 to $250, which sure will add more variance, but not an insane amount. It's all easily understandable/calculable with simple Standard Deviation calculations as well.

SD(1 hand) = 1.1*AvgBet
SD(X hands) = SD(1 hand) * Sqrt(X)

The long run is what you're playing for. EV plus or minus SD. So long as you understand bankroll, RoR, etc, the short term variance should be something easily handled by any level of semi-serious player with an appropriate bankroll. Especially if you're making more per hour/hand that will add up with all of the MORE hours/hands you're now playing as well in the long run. I don't count comps in my hourly EV, but this is something that you still will have a tremendous amount more of. I do keep track of how much I'm given in comps per year, and in regards to Wonging, I bet playing earns you 5x-10x more.

You'll also hit "the long run" exponentially faster because of the ton more hands per hour you're playing than before.

[Stealth]

You'll also hit "the long run" exponentially faster because of the ton more hands per hour you're playing than before.

One, I assure you I understand the math and have a wide range of experience in team and individual environments.

I believe you will find this to be an inaccurate statement. I was going to PM you but the option was not available. Do not need to do formulas and stuff on the forum to confirm but will gladly show you what I mean if you will provide an email address (or ability to PM or PM me).

[Romes]

I don't doubt you know the math Stealth. I actually know a bit more about you than you're aware, but that's neither here nor there. None of my posts had any design that assumed you didn't know exactly what you were talking about. I was simply stating my opinion and reasons/facts/logic as to how I arrived at it. Not sure why I can PM/be PM'd, but oh well.

[Three]

Not sure why I can PM/be PM'd, but oh well.

PM is a subscriber's feature. If you pay the $3/month subscription fee PM should work unless trying to PM a nonsubscriber or you have disabled your ability to PM. I am not sure how you do that but I am sure you saw it on the message when you had failed attempts to send PM's.