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Thread: Losing streak rant - PART TEN - or rather, losing SESSION rant

  1. #1


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    Losing streak rant - PART TEN - or rather, losing SESSION rant

    I didn't mention to everyone here that since attaining my last ATH in August, I am on yet another losing streak and have lost more than half my annual profits for the year. I didn't change my play, in fact I played tighter and wonged out of more negative hands to a greater degree - as far as the pit can tolerate of course.

    I went and played last night and it was a predictably woeful result. I only played on tables where I could go heads up or against one other player. When I was heads up I did all right without really shining.

    When I played with another player, I lost big. In fact I virtually NEVER won a hand that the other player lost. Whereas the reverse happened with virtual certainty.

    There was one elderly ploppy who played with me where there were 26 hands we played together and I won one of them. That's right. ONE.

    He was hitting 17's against a three, standing on 12 against a ten, asking me for advice but ignoring it, and winning anyway many times, until eventually reality bit and he lost all his money (about six thousand dollars that evening). Meanwhile I just lost regardless of what he had.

    All this was a mix of Australian Pontoon and regular blackjack.

    On a supposedly good shoe in regular blackjack, the count went up to +8 and beyond. I was dealt a 11 and a 20 (two tens) against a dealer six with two max bets in two boxes. I doubled on the 11 and got an eight. I decided against splitting my tens. The dealer then goes ace four and draws to 21.

    About five hands later the same thing happened. This time the pit boss was looking at my play, and I got dealt a 10 (two fives) and a 20 (two tens). I doubled my ten and got a picture card. Then I decided not to split my two tens. The dealer goes ten five and draws to 21.

    In the next few hands, I got dealt two hands of TT and blackjack with a dealer ten. She then drew a backdoor blackjack and I net-lost both hands. I went $1,500 in the hole in five minutes.

    NOTHING will go right.

    I plugged my results, session and overall into my simulation software and they told a predictable story. In my last 12 sessions I have won only two and four of my losses are in the bottom 10% of all sessions.
    All I ever get is negative variation.
    I can't believe anyone can get close to EV. I make allowances for play errors and adjust my EV accordingly. I'm not even close.

    While I remain ahead overall, I remain at a net loss excluding my good start (23 sessions) and it shows no sign of improving. My overall results for the year are in the bottom 10% of the expected range. My net profit after 500 hours is less than a QUARTER of expected. And as far as I'm concerned it's gonna stay that way. Not bad enough to suspect foul play, but not good enough to convince me that it's a worthwhile exercise.

    I just feel frustrated and angry. Not that this session was outside the bounds of possibility, but that my overall play is getting me nowhere.

    Just sick of it.

    I'm a very rational person. What other people do on the table should have no effect on the expectation of my play.
    But I can guarantee you that I have lost a greater proportion of hands than the other person I was playing with in any given shoe for the last THIRTY occasions. That's right. 30. THIRTY.

    There's a great way to win money: just sit with me. I'll be your sacrificial lamb and subsidize all your play. The house might even lose the shoe because you win more than I'm losing.

    F**k this. Just f**k. That's all there is to it.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  2. #2


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    Perhaps a night or two with minnie mouse would help ease your frustration level.
    "I think, therfore I can't play blackjack."
    Arnold Snyder, Blackbelt in Blackjack pg. 229 (2005)

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    I didn't mention to everyone here that since attaining my last ATH in August, I am on yet another losing streak and have lost more than half my annual profits for the year. I didn't change my play, in fact I played tighter and wonged out of more negative hands to a greater degree - as far as the pit can tolerate of course.

    I went and played last night and it was a predictably woeful result. I only played on tables where I could go heads up or against one other player. When I was heads up I did all right without really shining.

    When I played with another player, I lost big. In fact I virtually NEVER won a hand that the other player lost. Whereas the reverse happened with virtual certainty.

    There was one elderly ploppy who played with me where there were 26 hands we played together and I won one of them. That's right. ONE.

    He was hitting 17's against a three, standing on 12 against a ten, asking me for advice but ignoring it, and winning anyway many times, until eventually reality bit and he lost all his money (about six thousand dollars that evening). Meanwhile I just lost regardless of what he had.

    All this was a mix of Australian Pontoon and regular blackjack.

    On a supposedly good shoe in regular blackjack, the count went up to +8 and beyond. I was dealt a 11 and a 20 (two tens) against a dealer six with two max bets in two boxes. I doubled on the 11 and got an eight. I decided against splitting my tens. The dealer then goes ace four and draws to 21.

    About five hands later the same thing happened. This time the pit boss was looking at my play, and I got dealt a 10 (two fives) and a 20 (two tens). I doubled my ten and got a picture card. Then I decided not to split my two tens. The dealer goes ten five and draws to 21.

    In the next few hands, I got dealt two hands of TT and blackjack with a dealer ten. She then drew a backdoor blackjack and I net-lost both hands. I went $1,500 in the hole in five minutes.

    NOTHING will go right.

    I plugged my results, session and overall into my simulation software and they told a predictable story. In my last 12 sessions I have won only two and four of my losses are in the bottom 10% of all sessions.
    All I ever get is negative variation.
    I can't believe anyone can get close to EV. I make allowances for play errors and adjust my EV accordingly. I'm not even close.

    While I remain ahead overall, I remain at a net loss excluding my good start (23 sessions) and it shows no sign of improving. My overall results for the year are in the bottom 10% of the expected range. My net profit after 500 hours is less than a QUARTER of expected. And as far as I'm concerned it's gonna stay that way. Not bad enough to suspect foul play, but not good enough to convince me that it's a worthwhile exercise.

    I just feel frustrated and angry. Not that this session was outside the bounds of possibility, but that my overall play is getting me nowhere.

    Just sick of it.

    I'm a very rational person. What other people do on the table should have no effect on the expectation of my play.
    But I can guarantee you that I have lost a greater proportion of hands than the other person I was playing with in any given shoe for the last THIRTY occasions. That's right. 30. THIRTY.

    There's a great way to win money: just sit with me. I'll be your sacrificial lamb and subsidize all your play. The house might even lose the shoe because you win more than I'm losing.

    F**k this. Just f**k. That's all there is to it.
    Just because true count is super high, it doesn't mean face cards will come out. The majority of face cards could be behind the yellow card and will never come out for the shoe. Also dealer can draw a few small cards to make 21 on high count. It happens more often than you think. Especially at the casinos sequencing or clumping cards. I used to play at two casinos. At the first one, I always won. At the second casino, I have a lot of big losses like yours. I kept losing my max bets when TC is extremely high. The second casino has the best rules and it never back off players no matter how obvious the players are counting cards. The rule is S17, DAS, DOA, LS and 85% penetration on six deck shoe. The only restriction is that you cannot cut the shoe in less than one deck from both ends. This indirectly make most people cut one deck thin or five decks deep because the dealer will make people cut again and again until it is almost one deck exactly. From my study, I conclude that the top deck is extremely ten rich. The bottom deck is ten rich but the very bottom few cards are small to throw people off. There is also one more face card clump in the middle. Also it may indirectly make seven, eight, nine and ace clumps in the middle four decks of the shoe. The two most likely scenarios to happen playing the shoe is:

    1. Cut it deep. The first two decks (the bottom deck followed by the top deck before player cut) from the shoe will be face rich. The TC sinks to super negative. After two decks, AP go to rest room or answer the phones. Let the ploppies finish the shoe. No profits for AP. But no harm, either.

    2. Cut it thin. This will be shoe from the hell. Most of face cards are behind the yellow card. True Count constantly rises from the beginning to the end. But the face cards never come out. The small cards make dealer hand all the time.

    If you have the same experience like mine, I could share my successful counter attack strategy. If the yellow card comes to me, I will cut at 2.3 decks from the top (2.9 decks if it is 8 deck shoe), so the TC is rising in the first 2.75 decks then enjoy your fruit in the final 2 decks which are ten rich. Every time I got to cut, I won big. Note that you don't want to place big bets when TC is positive but rising. You want to place max bets when TC is super positive but sinking. Also note that you only deploy this strategy when you suspect the casino are clumping face cards. For me, I still play normally at the first casino.
    Last edited by BJGenius007; 10-31-2015 at 07:36 PM.

  4. #4
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    I wonder if that elderly guy was some kind of prop for the casino. It seems odd the way you described his play but I am sure there are a lot of people out there who bet big and play big who dump their bankrolls most, if not all of the time at BJ. Hitting 17's on a 3 doesn't sound smart, playing with $6K one would expect that a player has studied the game a bit and wouldn't be making such stupid decisions at the table. Asking you for advice and then ignoring you may have been a ploy by the house to throw you off your game as a counter if he was indeed a prop. His job may have been to lose big on purpose to entice other players at the table to bet big. Just an idea anyways.

    What strategy did you use at Pontoon?

  5. #5


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    No. And the deck is distribued fairly randomly.

    Just lost another 1.1k in 3 hrs lost virtually every moderate and large bet. All stiffs bust vs dealer tens.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  6. #6


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    Made it back with an additional half kilodollar in half a shoe. *end rant*
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Made it back with an additional half kilodollar in half a shoe. *end rant*
    Good to know you made it back, but in half a shoe?

    The mental effects of a losing streak is something else again. In October, I had just won 1 of 11 sessions, lost more money in those 12 days of playing than in any time before, about 20% of my BR. So after a 2 week break I get back in. Within the first shoe, my small $200 buy in at the bad $25 min. Game had gone up to $800. I put aside $400 to ensure I will have a winning short session, played through one more shuffle that went the dealers way, left with the $400 just to register a win purely for psychological reasons. I know it's just one long session but for me, I need to boost my confidence up.

  8. #8


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    Referring to the OP - it's quite impressive how many specific details are recalled about your session. As for me, If I have two hands in play with one other plop at the table, the game is moving very fast and I'm totally focused on playing my hands and keeping the count. I can remember general trends about the session and a few big hands and bad beats, etc., but nowhere near the level of detail you describe.

    My observation - You're a quite experienced and talented player, so you know it's just volatility. Anyway, I enjoy reading your session recaps - feel free to keep ranting.

  9. #9


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    I rarely post but I totally understand your frustration, BUT if you are playing within your limits of BR management, these losses should have NO emotional impact on you. Last year I grinded out playing red and light green chips, building up to a decent BR. I then thought I was invincible and played at a $50 table. Well I lost $5100 in 4 hours. All of the plus count hands went to the dealer and the other players. I was pissed and mad at myself because I got greedy and gambled but it was my fault. I should of never been playing at that level.

  10. #10


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    Well losing $5100 in 4 hours on a $50 table is only in the same bracket as losing $1020 on a $10 table, and that is considered well within the normal limits of variation. You could have as well just won as much. I will not be playing at that level for a very long time.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  11. #11


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    Tthree I have played c. 500 hours and have had less than five supermax 3:1 payouts over that time.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Tthree I have played c. 500 hours and have had less than five supermax 3:1 payouts over that time.
    Obviously with such rare events variance is huge but I have had that many in one day on more than one occasion. But you are playing the H17 DDR version which has you doubling most hands that end up with the potential for multi-card bonuses. So our results are not really able to be compared in a fair way. That is why the value of the ace is so different. You probably double almost any soft hand where I an very stingy when it comes to soft doubling only about a half dozen soft matches get doubled most of the times. It is really rare to double 4 or more card soft hands no matter what the match up. Just having a 3 card hand adds 1 to the soft doubling index (pretty much the only 3 card index adjustment I use except doubling 10 and 11 which is an add 1 to the index in most cases but a few are not adjusted for the extra card. All 5 card soft hands except s18v6 are all hits. If memory serves my only RA indices are soft doubles. That is how valuable a soft hand is for getting multi-card bonuses.

  13. #13


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    Please note that in Australian Pontoon, there is no soft doubling (except on the rare occasion of doubling a soft nineteen or twenty against a very weak dealer upcard with a very strong tailwind). This is because when you double the rules state that an ace is always low. Similarly you can only ever receive one card when you split aces. The fact that you can draw to 21 and win even when the dealer gets a blackjack (she has no hole card), and early surrender after doubling against an ace, slashes the house edge by as much as 0.6%.
    Last edited by mickeymouse; 11-01-2015 at 03:40 PM.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

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