losing streak odds using no bust strategy?

[cheaptrix]

i understand the overall odds using no bust strategy is a house edge of 3.91% according to wizardofodds. with that information anyone would be foolish to use this strategy. lol, so obviously i want to try it. i'm wondering if losing streaks would be shortened even though your clearly losing an edge somewhere using no bust strat.
does anyone know how to do the math for losing streaks with no bust? or does a program exist that you can input a no bust strat and betting strategy?

i also want to mix the terrible no bust strat with another horrible strategy... martingale. ok, flame away. lol

[lurppis]

I'm not sure, but I assume "no bust strategy" is a playing strategy for regular blackjack where you don't take a card on a hard 12 or above? If so, be aware that the results of two consecutive hands of blackjack are very close to being statistically independent (barring some minor effects related to the count). Therefore, if you play a strategy that gives you a smaller chance of winning each individual hand, your losing streaks will be slightly longer, on average.

Using proper basic strategy generally gives you the highest chance of winning a given hand, assuming no extra information is available. The only exceptions I can think of are: some doubles, where you decrease your odds of winning slightly, in order to increase the amount you might win (for a higher overall expectation); and some (maybe most) splits, where you greatly increase your chance of a push.

[cheaptrix]

your losing streaks will be slightly longer, on average.

i agree that it seems logical that longer loss streaks would occur given the 3.91% disadvantage but the fact that we are guaranteed a win every time the dealer busts (about 28%) makes me think the streaks actually might be less than basic strategy. manually running about 2000 hands has shown zero streaks of 6 loses in a row. i know small sample which is why i would like to find a program or someone that can figure the math.

[Three]

2,000 hands is insignificant. When you have dealt 2,000,000 you are starting to get into relevant results territory. So you think that a about 1/2 chance of winning will have longer losing streaks than about 1/4 chance of the dealer busting? I remember whole shoes where the dealer never busted. He just kept hitting out.

[cheaptrix]

manually running about 2000 hands has shown zero streaks of 6 loses in a row.

was running a few more hands and of course i hit a 7 loss streak finally. lol, ugh! still up overall (play chips) but doubling an 8th time isn't possible.

[Three]

Martingale, UGH. Be one of the ones that quit before you have lost all your winnings and then some. It is a sure way to accelerate overall losses. Every Martingaler comes back crying about their losing their BR eventually. They say why didn't I listen. Few listen and walk away ahead.

[Dog Hand]

Here are the CVData results for a 400-million-round sim for a heads-up player employing a "Never Bust" strategy. His overall IBA is -3.193%. Each entry represents the number of streaks of the given length (not longer), neglecting pushes.

Hands	Win	Lose
1	50,028,470	42,326,260
2	23,231,310	23,157,810
3	10,853,860	12,715,100
4	5,077,507	6,978,123
5	2,378,937	3,828,495
6	1,112,388	2,102,067
7	520,118	1,152,798
8	243,461	632,484
9	113,037	346,186
10	52,993	189,781
11	24,622	103,537
12	11,657	57,184
13	5,441	31,057
14	2,583	17,178
15	1,163	9,180
16	518	5,162
17	264	2,783
18	118	1,491
19	59	828
20	22	464
>20	18	555

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Baberuth]

I have known two players who played "no bust". One didn't win and quit while the other was a high roller and bragged about winning thousands and being comped everything. I saw him in the lobby when on my way to the room with my wife. He went into his story and said he won and also lost some big money, but he was convinced it is the only way to play. His friend verified his winning streaks, but at least he said he also lost 10-15K a few times. The best verification he gave was when he said everyone at the table will get mad at him. I just listened and offered nothing about my play. When he walked away my wife said "Can you play that way and win thousands too?"
I saw his brother who is a close friend of mine. He offered that his high roller brother had a lot of money and lost thousands.

[Aslan]

Martingale, UGH. Be one of the ones that quit before you have lost all your winnings and then some. It is a sure way to accelerate overall losses. Every Martingaler comes back crying about their losing their BR eventually. They say why didn't I listen. Few listen and walk away ahead.

Walking away is not a viable strategy, because you can never repeat it.