Team Play

[TeamMoney]

Hi, Im new here, have been studying the AP approach for years now and have read many of the books and been a long time lurker of this forum. I will be starting a modest size team within the next year most likely. I have a nice size bankroll for about a 6 player team, Im just wondering about something small. I got all the calculations and expenses figured out and how much I can afford to pay everyone per hour, etc, but what im wondering is about the 'long run' math when running a team. If I have 4 spotters logging 8 hours each per day, is it safe to say our team just logged 32 hours into the long run? In CVCX you can put how many hours you logged, such as 1300 hours per year you will yield $600,000, etc. Is it safe to assume if each spotter logs 8 hours each that 32 hours have been attributed to the long run or does it not work that way? Will it only count as 8 hours? Does having 4 spotters logging 8 hours each only reduce the rounds played and lowers N0? Isnt that the same thing as logging 32 hours then? A little confused, hopefully someone can clear all this up.

[Norm]

You need to determine, by actual casinos experience, how many hands are actually played per hour. This will vary a great deal on the casino, time of day, and rules set for the team.

[TeamMoney]

In terms of hours though, how would a team keep track of it? Is it as simple as adding the hours each member puts in?

[Romes]

In blackjack, as Norm said, it comes down to hands, not hours. Whilst everyone can say "oh 1000 hours is good enough to be 'the long run'" what they're actually saying is "Average 100 hands per hour, after 1,000 hours you'll hit 100,000 hands by which mathematically we can show with 3 Standard Deviations of certanty (99%) that you'll be up X amount!" Keeping track of hands/hours is easy, but is usually a skill acquired by a good player. If I play at a table for 1 hour I can tell by the pace of the game if I'm getting 100 hands per hour, or 70 hands per hour. After my session(s) I'll go log my hours and number of hands in to my excel sheet. That's what you'll have to do to keep track of your team, tell if you're around EV, or if you're getting cheated/being stolen from. You MUST keep impeccable records of all of your play. Your BP's should be able to know how many hands they play in a given session and after that session they should be required to record it somehow - via text to you, just on their phone, etc, etc.

Your spotters aren't getting you anywhere near your long run. They're literally doing nothing to move you towards the long run. Your spotters job is to find positive counts so your BP or GBP can hop around getting the ACTUAL HANDS. Now, if your BP is playing only ever at an advantage, that will severely lessen your requirements for "the long run", but all the same what matters is how many hands you make, what your average bets are, etc.

Here's an example:

Say you're playing on average a 1% advantage (should be a little more with spotter/BP wonging)
Say your average bet is $500... could obviously be $5k, $1k, or $100, just stay with me.

So what's your EV/ER for 1 hand? EV = $500*(1.01) = $505... meaning every bet you make you expect (in the long run) to make $5.

The variance in blackjack is well known and accepted 1.1.

The Standard Deviation for 1 hand (OriginalSD) = 1.1*AvgBet = 1.1 * 500= $550. Thus, on any hand you could have your EV plus or minus your SD. This makes sense give that you could double, split, surrender, blackjack, lose, win, etc.

The Standard Deviation for any number of hands (SD(NumHands)) = Sqrt(NumHands)*OriginalSD

So say you want to see where you'll be at after 100 hours... ASSUMING 50 HANDS PER HOUR - lots of table hopping, waiting for good counts, etc, etc... (again, it all comes back to HANDS). Well, 50 hands per hour, 100 hours = 5,000 hands. Do again note: THIS MEANS 100 HOURS OF YOUR BP PLAYING POSITIVE COUNTS. This again has NOTHING to do with your spotters, but the actual number of hands per hour your BP actually plays with your assumed edge.

EV/ER for 5,000 hands = NumHands * AvgBet * Edge = 5,000 * 500 * 1.01 = $2,525,000

SD(5,000) = Sqrt(5,000) * 550 = 70.7107* 550 = $38,890.86

So what do these numbers mean? Well, after your BP actually logs 5,000 hands, with a $500 average bet, and a 1% average edge... you can expect to make $2,525,000, PLUS OR MINUS $38,890.86. This emphatically proves why card counting works. When you get to "the long run" you you've essentially earased/damped varaince from the game and you're left with right around your EV. Now, if you don't know anything about Standard Deviations I implore you to either read my articles in my post history, or just go to Wikipedia. 1SD comes with 68% confidence, 2SD comes with 95% confidence, and 3SD comes with 99% confidence. We want to be mathematically sure, so we need 3 Standard Deviations of confidence.

With 5000 hands, 500 avg bet, 1% average edge, I can mathematically say, with 99% certainty, that you will make $2,525,000 PLUS or MINUS $116,672.58... (3*38,890.86).

This, of course, doesn't account for paying your spotters, travel, expenses, and the biggest hit to teams... TRUST/players stealing/etc/etc/etc.

edit - Just to keep you grounded... In my opinion it'll be hard to get 50 hands per hour w/ a $500 average bet. You'll get tossed a bunch I'm sure... I hope you have a lot of places to play and travel arrangements =P.

[Bodarc]

Romes, I think your advantage is .01 and not 1.01

[Three]

I think you included your bet in the winnings. Divide EV by 101 and you will have corrected this.

[Stealth]

Hi, Im new here, have been studying the AP approach for years now and have read many of the books and been a long time lurker of this forum. I will be starting a modest size team within the next year most likely. I have a nice size bankroll for about a 6 player team, Im just wondering about something small. I got all the calculations and expenses figured out and how much I can afford to pay everyone per hour, etc, but what im wondering is about the 'long run' math when running a team. If I have 4 spotters logging 8 hours each per day, is it safe to say our team just logged 32 hours into the long run? In CVCX you can put how many hours you logged, such as 1300 hours per year you will yield $600,000, etc. Is it safe to assume if each spotter logs 8 hours each that 32 hours have been attributed to the long run or does it not work that way? Will it only count as 8 hours? Does having 4 spotters logging 8 hours each only reduce the rounds played and lowers N0? Isnt that the same thing as logging 32 hours then? A little confused, hopefully someone can clear all this up.

TM, There are several team managers/players on this site so you have come to a good place. Having managed a team, there are many, many issues to be dealt with to get started and then ongoing. Topics like this came up:

Player qualifications - what type of people did we want
Player certifications - how to verify they are competent players
Bank Size and source - Team budget and bankroll requirements/ player investment requirements/investor requirement/when to distribute profits/who covers losses, etc. Bank policies for joining and distribution.
Play styles and protocols - BP, all play, hole carding, game selection, casino selection, bet ramps, indexes, add other AP plays
Protocol for dealing with back off and worse. Players should have clear instructions on what to do and what not to do. You are correct that you must have a complete understanding of the math and the intricacies of all types of play. EV, RoR, N0, BP rates, spotter rates all are necessary metrics to be able to plan and budget for a team.
Cash management - How to protect against cash pilfering/ how to move cash around the country, as needed.
Expense policy - what to do about comps, pay all expenses, per diem? etc
Team communications - weekly meeting (conference calls)?, how to communicate in the casino environment, call in signaling, play signals,
Team Management - Accounting, planning, play analysis, issue resolution, recruiting , training, baby sitter, cat herder, cook and dish washer.

This will give you start at a list of topics to be dealt with in your journey.

PM me if you have questions and want to talk about it.

[Romes]

Romes, I think your advantage is .01 and not 1.01

I account for it... "So what's your EV/ER for 1 hand? EV = $500*(1.01) = $505... meaning every bet you make you expect (in the long run) to make $5." ...hence the 'you expect to make $5' ...(500 * .01)

[Three]

EV/ER for 5,000 hands = NumHands * AvgBet * Edge = 5,000 * 500 * 1.01 = $2,525,000

I account for it... "So what's your EV/ER for 1 hand? EV = $500*(1.01) = $505... meaning every bet you make you expect (in the long run) to make $5." ...hence the 'you expect to make $5' ...(500 * .01)

Did you really account for it? It looks like 500 times 1.01 not .01 to me. Expected value and expected return are not the same thing. EV is winnings, ER is winnings plus bet (minus vig where applicable). The way you did it you must subtract off the amount bet to get expected value.

[Romes]

Did you really account for it? It looks like 500 times 1.01 not .01 to me. Expected value and expected return are not the same thing. EV is winnings, ER is winnings plus bet (minus vig where applicable). The way you did it you must subtract off the amount bet to get expected value.

You're being confused by the fact that you think I'm lumping EV/ER in to the same thing... I'm well aware of the difference, clearly. The EV is the $5, the ER is the $505. I was doing both EV/ER, though I guess technically I should have put "ER/EV" to keep it respectively accurate.

[Three]

EV/ER for 5,000 hands = NumHands * AvgBet * Edge = 5,000 * 500 * 1.01 = $2,525,000

SD(5,000) = Sqrt(5,000) * 550 = 70.7107* 550 = $38,890.86

With 5000 hands, 500 avg bet, 1% average edge, I can mathematically say, with 99% certainty, that you will make $2,525,000 PLUS or MINUS $116,672.58... (3*38,890.86).

The $2,525,000 includes $2,500,000 in bets. so you expect to make $25,000 or $5/hand over 5000 hand not $2,525,000. You certainly see to indicate that you will make $2,525,000 on 5000 bets of $500 each. This is obviously not true so I assume it is not what you meant to say but for other readers we need to make it clear what you did mean.

, I can mathematically say, with 99% certainty, that you will make $2,525,000 PLUS or MINUS $116,672.58

[Romes]

The $2,525,000 includes $2,500,000 in bets. so you expect to make $25,000 or $5/hand over 5000 hand not $2,525,000. You certainly see to indicate that you will make $2,525,000 on 5000 bets of $500 each. This is obviously not true so I assume it is not what you meant to say but for other readers we need to make it clear what you did mean.

Ah, I thought you were stuck on the EV/ER with the $505 and $5...

Yes, the 2.5 mill includes the bets. It's an ER, not EV. That's what I get for rushing since I've done these types of calculations like 100,000 times for people =/. I should keep a table and just copy paste lol.