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Thread: Buster Blackjack

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    Buster Blackjack

    At what TC do you have an advantage on this Buster side bet where you're betting on whether or not the dealer will bust? Is this even countable? Does the TC matter for the percentage of the dealer busting? I am Using HiOptII.

    Here is the paytable:
    Bust with 8+ cards 250
    Bust with 7 cards 50
    Bust with 6 cards 15
    Bust with 5 cards 4
    Bust with 4 cards 2
    Bust with 3 cards 2
    Dealer doesn't bust -1
    Total

    Thanks
    Last edited by WABJ11; 10-13-2015 at 10:47 PM.

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    WABJ11

    This website may give you some useful information.

    http://apheat.net/2013/04/29/card-co...e-bet-2-decks/

    In the above link there is a link where 6 decks are analyzed
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  3. #3


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    I ran the numbers some time ago when a casino in my area offered this side bet. My analysis was that it is negative expectation. Sorry, I don't have results to post. When everything came up -EV I threw it all out and simply resolved not to bet this.

    However, like you, the concept intrigued me. It just didn't pan out.

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    Buster Blackjack — Six Decks, Dealer Hits Soft 17

    EVENT PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
    Bust with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986
    Bust with 7 cards 50 0.000214 0.010722
    Bust with 6 cards 12 0.002638 0.031651
    Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473 0.08189
    Bust with 4 cards 2 0.089392 0.178784
    Bust with 3 cards 2 0.173032 0.346064
    Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.714241 -0.714241
    Total 1.000000 -0.062143


    The next table shows the return, according to the number of decks, and whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.
    Buster Blackjack — Expected Return

    DECKS STAND SOFT 17 HIT SOFT 17
    1 -0.087690 -0.068890
    2 -0.084766 -0.065097
    4 -0.083066 -0.062915
    5 -0.082707 -0.062455
    6 -0.082462 -0.062143
    8 -0.082153 -0.061749


    As long as I went to the trouble to analyze this bet, the next table shows a finer breakdown of the possible dealer outcomes in a six-deck game, and the dealer hits a soft 17.
    Possible Dealer Outcomes — Six Decks, Dealer Hits Soft 17

    EVENT PROBABILITY
    Total of 17 0.133459
    Total of 18 0.141205
    Total of 19 0.135682
    Total of 20 0.181531
    Total of 21 0.0748744
    Blackjack 0.0474895
    Bust with 3 cards 0.173032
    Bust with 4 cards 0.0893918
    Bust with 5 cards 0.0204726
    Bust with 6 cards 0.0026376
    Bust with 7 cards 0.000214444
    Bust with 8 cards 0.000011528
    Bust with 9 cards 0.00000040805
    Bust with 10 cards 0.00000000909509
    Bust with 11 cards 0.00000000011986
    Bust with 12 cards 0.000000000000824386
    Bust with 13 cards 0.00000000000000222834



    Buster Blackjack @ Sycuan, CA

    Posted in blackjack sidebets by stephenhow on February 18, 2009
    At my nearby Sycuan Casino, they offer a sidebet on some of their games called “Buster Blackjack”. It’s an optional “bonus” bet the player can place, up to the amount of his blackjack bet, and limited to $100. It’s a bet that the dealer will bust, and its paytable is based on the number of cards the dealer busts with.
    I wrote a little recursive program to calculate the distribution of dealer busts for a 6-decks shoe, and worked in their paytable.
    Dealer Bust Cards Payout Probability Return
    3 2:1 1.73032e-01 0.346064
    4 2:1 8.93918e-02 0.178784
    5 4:1 2.04726e-02 0.081890
    6 12:1 2.63760e-03 0.031651
    7 50:1 2.14444e-04 0.010722
    8 250:1 1.15280e-05 0.002882
    no bust -1 0.714240 -0.714240
    total 1.000000 -0.062247
    So the bet has a typical bonus bet edge of 6.2%. It’s a lot better than I thought it’d be.

    Buster Blackjack

    Buster Blackjack is a side bet I noticed at the Sycuan casino, near San Diego, on November 30, 2008. The bet wins if the dealer busts, the more cards it takes, the more the player wins. The following table shows the probabilities and return for a six-deck game, where the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.
    Buster Blackjack — Six Decks, Dealer Hits Soft 17

    EVENT PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
    Bust with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986
    Bust with 7 cards 50 0.000214 0.010722
    Bust with 6 cards 12 0.002638 0.031651
    Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473 0.08189
    Bust with 4 cards 2 0.089392 0.178784
    Bust with 3 cards 2 0.173032 0.346064
    Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.714241 -0.714241
    Total 1.000000 -0.062143


    The next table shows the return, according to the number of decks, and whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.
    Buster Blackjack — Expected Return

    DECKS STAND SOFT 17 HIT SOFT 17
    1 -0.087690 -0.068890
    2 -0.084766 -0.065097
    4 -0.083066 -0.062915
    5 -0.082707 -0.062455
    6 -0.082462 -0.062143
    8 -0.082153 -0.061749


    As long as I went to the trouble to analyze this bet, the next table shows a finer breakdown of the possible dealer outcomes in a six-deck game, and the dealer hits a soft 17.
    Possible Dealer Outcomes — Six Decks, Dealer Hits Soft 17

    EVENT PROBABILITY
    Total of 17 0.133459
    Total of 18 0.141205
    Total of 19 0.135682
    Total of 20 0.181531
    Total of 21 0.0748744
    Blackjack 0.0474895
    Bust with 3 cards 0.173032
    Bust with 4 cards 0.0893918
    Bust with 5 cards 0.0204726
    Bust with 6 cards 0.0026376
    Bust with 7 cards 0.000214444
    Bust with 8 cards 0.000011528
    Bust with 9 cards 0.00000040805
    Bust with 10 cards 0.00000000909509
    Bust with 11 cards 0.00000000011986
    Bust with 12 cards 0.000000000000824386
    Bust with 13 cards 0.00000000000000222834






    "Does the TC matter for the percentage of the dealer busting?"

    No, not really. Off the top of the deck the dealer bust % is about 28%. It rarely rises above 30%

    There is a point of diminishing returns where at a very high true count your advantage drops as

    the PUSH % rises from an off-the-top 12% to <?>
    due to the increased likelihoods of 20-20 pushes.
    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 10-14-2015 at 02:35 PM.

  5. #5


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    I laid out the paytable above. It is not 12 to 1 it is 15 to 1 for 6 card bust.

  6. #6
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    The probability for a 6 card bust is given as 2.6%

    but how far does this improved payoff go to alter the game's House Edge ?

    It
    seems to me that at a high TC multiple card busts are improbable

    and they are also improbable at very low TC's

    Am I missing something here
    ?

  7. #7


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    So stay away from this bet?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABJ11 View Post
    So stay away from this bet?
    I would, but I stay away from ALL side bets. No exceptions.

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