What do casinos imagine the AP threat to be?

**Frostbyte** · 11-11-2012, 10:52 PM

I found this question interesting.

What does the gaming industry actually imagine the threat posed by APs to be?

Do they actually imagine that a whole legion of counters, trackers and perfect-read hole-carders, each with his own five- to six- figure bankroll, lurks just beyond the edge of the Valley? Do they actually believe (as I've seen claimed) that any casino has actually been brought down by APs alone? What do they estimate their actual loss to advantage gambling to be?

How scared are these titans of the select few who dare to add and subtract ones?

**lurppis** · 11-11-2012, 11:42 PM

If there was a whole legion, they wouldn't need to each have a large bankroll - most of them could lose and the casino would still have cause for concern, because the overall change would be on the side of the APs.

**Kat** · 11-12-2012, 12:09 AM

A US survey more than a decade ago showed that 95% of all casino patrons leave with less money than what they had when they arrived. If only 5% of all casino patrons are winners on any given day, how many of that miniscule 5% might be APs? I wonder if casinos' large investments in various security measures to try to catch "cheats" are worth it... I mean, their GOLD RUSH of 95% of their daily suckers continues to make them rich, while they focus on a measly 5% at the upper end. And for what?

**Kat** · 11-12-2012, 01:10 AM

Here is what they imagine ONE AP is going to amass...
cash.jpg

**Roswell Crash Survivor** · 11-12-2012, 01:35 AM

Remember at the end of the day, casino employees are men and women working at a service job. They don't always have the casinos' best-interest in mind.

All this paranoia about counters, shuffler-trackers and hole-carders?

It is in the interest of Security to play up the AP threat - simply to justify their own jobs or career goals.

The number of drunk/disorderly/barred patrons you eject isn't a figure a security man can take to his manager. It doesn't generate a bottom-line dollar figure. Catching an AP looks like 'loss prevention' even if it turns out its just a non-AP patron having a good run. The security man doesn't care about the casino's lost revenue, since it won't be noticed.

Every now and then a 'game protection consultant' comes along making APs look like The Boogeyman to spruik his products/seminar/consulting services.

**zengrifter** · 11-12-2012, 01:59 AM

User is banned, content deleted.

**moo321** · 11-12-2012, 04:52 PM

Unfortunately, for them and for us, casino employees VASTLY overestimate the threat of card-counters, and APs in general. If I ran a casino, I would cut a half deck off the shoes and offer surrender, and I wouldn't consider running skills checks on anyone betting less than medium black chip level.

I've run into less than a dozen competent counters in all of my travels, and only a fraction of these have the bankroll to be a major threat. I have run into plenty of wannabes, though: they either can't quite count, or they don't know their index plays, or they go on tilt.

I bet casinos lose money at the margin by backing off even those attempting to disguise their skills (that is, they think they have an edge). Much less all the ploppies they back off who aren't even doing anything. Even worse is the increase to their labor costs caused by slow games due to poor penetration. Shallow cuts certainly cost the casinos many times all the money that card counters have taken since the 1960s.

**bigplayer** · 11-12-2012, 08:28 PM

Casinos lose more money due to stupid countermeasures than card counters win each year. After almost two decades on the road mostly straight counting I'm convinced of that. I smile whenever a casino with a particular rep for paranoia of counters gets crushed by other AP techniques or winds up getting 7 figures stolen by rogue employees. Spend less time watching for people who might get a 1% edge and more time watching for people who can really change your bottom line either legally or illegally.

**mofungoo** · 11-13-2012, 06:56 AM

I met a person in a social situation who turned out to be a casino manager. In talking to him I found out that his biggest concerns were employee theft, payout errors, collusion, player cheating, and thieves that stole from other customers. He mentioned card counters only once, and it did not appear to concern him greatly. He said he liked it when customers won as long as they didn't cheat. People in his position are data-driven, wanting to direct efforts toward reducing the biggest losses they face.

The situation is different when it comes to floorpersons. Revere's opinion of them as laid out in chapter 4, "Behind the Tables", of his book is mostly correct. Most really don't know what's going on and tend to overreact to percieved threats, such as backing a lucky player off simply because they won. The problem for us is that these are the people we have to deal with on a daily basis.

Research and find out who the casino manager is. Try a little bit of name dropping, if they suspect you might know Mr. Big, they will not do anything to offend you. If you actually know him, they will line up to kiss your a$$.

**mofungoo** · 11-13-2012, 12:49 PM

Here is the program list for the World Gaming Protection Conference to be held in Vegas in February. The schedule should give an idea of what the big guys worry about. Since BJ is not specifically mentioned it seems that they are not too worried about counters, for whatever reason. Topics on cheating and theft seem to dominate.

http://www.worldgameprotection.com/program/#!/c

Newbie pit personnel and dealers probably look at sites like Norm's or BJ21 in hopes of learning something to help their careers, or to increase their opportunities if they try to count when playing at competitors' properties. Some of these folks likely play our side of the tables in their off time.

**moo321** · 11-13-2012, 01:15 PM

There's a big divide. There are definitely sharp managers out there, that know how to count, or know it's not a threat. Lots of them play at casinos.

On the other hand, there's a LOT of meatheads out there. They know nothing, except that card counters steal their money.

You never know who's in charge.

**BigJer** · 11-13-2012, 01:24 PM

I got backed off from a place in Reno for winning $250 in two hours playing 1 X $5 to 2 X $25. That's how hard up Reno is right now BTW. So some managers do see every AP as a threat.

**mofungoo** · 11-13-2012, 03:13 PM

The OP asked about what the casino industry thought about APs. In general the the owners, the Casino Managers who get a percent of the action, don't care about us that much. Thorp has made the casinos more money since he published his book than all the card counters, BJ teams, and hole carders ever won from the casinos. Way, way more. A small place with a small bankroll may feel differently than the industry in general. A floorperson in any size property may think the way to climb the corporate ladder is to bust counters. Especially in a bad economy. Be careful, try not to look like a threat to them, and stay alert.