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Thread: What's the opportunity cost of not betting "optimally" using CVCX recommended ramp?

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    What's the opportunity cost of not betting "optimally" using CVCX recommended ramp?

    I am still trying to wrap my head around the concept of following the CVCX suggested optimal bet ramp for a typical dog of a double deck game that I play at my local stores. H17, DOA, DAS, 1 card only on split Aces, No Surrender. 55% to 55%+ pen; dealer dependent. My question is, is this ramp really essentially the mathematically optimal way to deploy our funds for a particular game? For hi-lo for example, does TC1 and TC2 justify increases of 2 units followed by 5 unites respectively. The advantages at those counts seem too small to risk more capital at those amounts and I am wondering if I should wait for a slightly bigger advantage before increasing to those amounts. I am wondering if this would lower overall expected session variance. Also regarding the CVCX suggested max bet out as early as TC 3, TC 4, and onward. Am I getting enough value for max betting at TC3 is my question rather than just waiting until TC4.
    I am trying to understand this before I go and dogmatically follow the recommended ramp. I am grateful for feedback and I thank you beforehand.

    Sincerely,
    Wino

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    If you are foolish enough to attack such a poor game you must be aggressive. The shallow pen will not afford many big bet opportunities. If you were playing with 1/4 deck cut off you would max bet at TC +5. You can also get a TC rounding bias with DD which has TC +3 happen less frequently than TC +4. If you play SD certain TC's can be impossible to have depending on your rounding technique. The smaller your spread the more aggressive your ramp should be. In a crappy game like that they may tolerate spreading easier. At 8:1 spread max bet is made at TC +4. Unless you can get heads up and/or they tolerate big spreads (I am talking hilo 16:1 spread, or Hiopt2/ASC 10:1 spread) I would touch this game. And that is a slight stretch to my game standards.
    Last edited by Three; 10-10-2015 at 05:42 AM.

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    Tthree, IIRC, your "local" opportunities include the NY through MD region (including NJ, DE and PA).

    How many good DD games are available to you there with consistently better Pen that that which confronts the OP? Looking at the Oct 2015 edition of CBJN, not seeing many such opps. And the availability of good DD games seem to be disappearing everywhere.

    Just curious if you have some hidden, unreported gens out your way.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

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    Thank you Tthree. That helped me understand a lot more. Regards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Galvin View Post
    How many good DD games are available to you there with consistently better Pen that that which confronts the OP?
    I am not giving up anything but there are a few. Scouting and networking beats CBJN.

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    Understand and the thought of asking you to publicly disclose your opportunities never even crossed my mind. I hope you did not misinterpret my post to do so. I was simply just curious as to whether you were able to find some quality playable DD games, since you stated that you wouldn't touch the games the OP described as being available to him/her (?), and CBJN does not list any quality DD games in your vicinity.

    Actually, I am quite happy that you have been able to scout some, which casts aside the dreary picture of reality painted by CBJN.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  7. #7


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    cbjn is only a guideline ,nothing more. Never talk about opportunities / good plays on an OPEN forum.hence the word open, only network with friends ,ands friends can betray when it is good enough to do so.

  8. #8


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    I have been playing the same game the OP describes with slightly better Penn of 65%. Its Dd, $25 min. Game. It's a bad game but it's the only game in town and it's $25 min. After playing it for some 18 months with just a 1-6 spread, I was up only about $3k in 18 months with an hourly EV of about $40.

    Yesterday and today, I decided to get more aggressive with it, bet optimally as the OP describes. First two sessions, about 60 minutes each, I won $900 and $275 and then disaster struck, lost $2400 in a 90 minute 3rd session and another $475 in another 90 minutes.

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    stopgambling and Tthree, that's great.

    I was not challenging anyone, but that sure sounds how it was perceived by the responses. My apologies if you were offended. I was merely trying to discern whether you were finding hidden gems, since CBJN (only a guide, I get it) did not report availability of good games in Tthree's area. Not sure why either of you went toward defending turf. That was not the point of my post, nor the tone or tenor of my comment. I am glad for not only Tthree finding good, quality DD rules, but that others are indeed finding same, despite CBJN being inaccurate, or even silent on these hidden gems.

    I believe that I will leave well enough alone, and end on that positive comment.
    "Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."

    Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wino View Post
    For hi-lo for example, does TC1 and TC2 justify increases of 2 units followed by 5 unites respectively. The advantages at those counts seem too small to risk more capital
    The optimal bet ramps are developed in concert with the risk level you are willing to take with a bankroll of a given size. The answer is yes, a TC1 and TC2 does justify increases in your bets within the confines of your risk tolerance and bank size. If you are uncomfortable with these then I would advise adjusting the bankroll and ror parameters to more appropriately fit your risk tolerance.

    You questions sound as if you are not totally familiar with the concepts of Kelly betting, RoR and the resulting optimal bet ramps. If so, I would counsel some effort to better grasp these concepts as they will serve you well going forward.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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