Flat Betting v. Card Counting v. Progression Betting

[BJ_WIN]

I don't want to try to prove that progressive betting is a winning strategy. I want to randomly pick a number of dealt BJ hand, say 200, and see which strategy is better for short term variance. Of course, I suspect that if you did this a billion times, the flat betting and progressive betting will yield similar results (taking into account larger bets for progressive betting) and card counting will yield positive results. Anyway, if anyone can provide a large list of dealt hands, that would be great.

[seriousplayer]

I don't want to try to prove that progressive betting is a winning strategy. I want to randomly pick a number of dealt BJ hand, say 200, and see which strategy is better for short term variance. Of course, I suspect that if you did this a billion times, the flat betting and progressive betting will yield similar results (taking into account larger bets for progressive betting) and card counting will yield positive results. Anyway, if anyone can provide a large list of dealt hands, that would be great.

What you are saying is not true. In your first post you already trying to prove that progressive betting is a winning strategy. If you going to just see which strategy is better for short term variance than you already found it. That my friend is flat betting playing prefect basic strategy.

[BJ_WIN]

With respect to your first comment regarding my first post, please re-read my first post. With respect to your better strategy comment, flat betting playing perfect basic strategy should be same as progressive betting playing perfect basic strategy (taking into consideration that progressive betting will have a higher average bet amount).

[seriousplayer]

With respect to your first comment regarding my first post, please re-read my first post. With respect to your better strategy comment, flat betting playing perfect basic strategy should be same as progressive betting playing perfect basic strategy (taking into consideration that progressive betting will have a higher average bet amount).

Progressive betting playing perfect basic strategy is NOT the same as flat betting playing perfect strategy. As the simulation have shown. You just don't want to confront the true. You will lose more with a higher average bet amount when expose to the house edge. It is best to NOT bet at all when the casino has an advantage.

https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm

[Bodarc]

All the math tells me that any type of progressive betting should be same as flat betting (with higher bet average), but it appears to me that this is not what I am experiencing. I need to convince myself that I am just experiencing variance (luck).

It is a fact that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum of the series. If you do nothing to change your expected value (say -.50%) in this case and you bet $10, $20, $40, $80, $160 as high as you want to go, your EV is equal to: $10(-.50%)+$20(-.50%)+$40(-.50%) .....+$160(-.50%). As you can see, every bet is a losing bet and the sum of the outcome of this series will always be a loss.

Anything can happen in the short term and if you have been winning it is because of variance. In the long term, if you bet this way, your EV will equal -.50% X The total amount bet. The only way to change this formula is to change the overall negative EV into a positive EV. You are not doing this by raising your bet. Any simulation you run will have these figures in the long term.

Take a fair coin. The EV is zero, however if you and someone flip 1,000 times, one of you will be a winner and one will be a loser but if you flip for a very long time, the outcome will get closer and closer to zero. This is what you are experiencing right now, short term variance.