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Thread: Flat Betting v. Card Counting v. Progression Betting

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    Flat Betting v. Card Counting v. Progression Betting

    I was wondering if anyone has a spreadsheet of BJ hands (hopefully, thousands) that shows win/loss for card counting (e.g., hi/lo with 1:8 betting) compared to flat betting. I wanted to use the spreadsheet to compare those results, i.e., card counting and flat betting, to positive progressive betting, e.g., Walter Thomason's betting. I think it would be interesting to compare all three results for a short session, e.g., 200-500 hands.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJ_WIN View Post
    I was wondering if anyone has a spreadsheet of BJ hands (hopefully, thousands) that shows win/loss for card counting (e.g., hi/lo with 1:8 betting) compared to flat betting. I wanted to use the spreadsheet to compare those results, i.e., card counting and flat betting, to positive progressive betting, e.g., Walter Thomason's betting. I think it would be interesting to compare all three results for a short session, e.g., 200-500 hands.
    Seriously, why bother

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    Freightman - because I need to see why I have been successful at blackjack using progressive betting. All the math tells me that any type of progressive betting should be same as flat betting (with higher bet average), but it appears to me that this is not what I am experiencing. I need to convince myself that I am just experiencing variance (luck).

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    Did you look at Norms link? Your progression is worse than flat betting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJ_WIN View Post
    Freightman - because I need to see why I have been successful at blackjack using progressive betting. All the math tells me that any type of progressive betting should be same as flat betting (with higher bet average), but it appears to me that this is not what I am experiencing. I need to convince myself that I am just experiencing variance (luck).
    How many hands have you played in total? Have to try playing 34 hours non-stop using progressive betting? You might get lucky from time to time but if you play long enough your EV will be negative because betting cannot overcome the house edge.

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    Here Is a link of some people toying with this and publishing results:
    http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/disc...progression/p1

    As expected real close to expectation in these insignificant samplings.

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    seriousplayer - I recorded about 120 hours for 1 1/2 years. Anyway, if anyone has a spreadsheet of dealt hands, I would appreciate it. I believe Walter Thomason used 5,000 dealt hands for his book. If anyone has a copy of those dealt hands, that would work as well.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    A set of 5,000 hands is completely useless -- as is his book. The guy that wrote the forward to the book even told the author the strategy didn't work.
    Last edited by Norm; 10-01-2015 at 10:56 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    5,000 hands is nothing but noise when trying to validate a blackjack playing system. The variance associated with these small sample may make you "think you found something" but you are to be sorely disappointed as the math does not lie. When the people on this forum tell you no progression will win in the long term, you would be well advised to heed their guidance.

    If a progression did work, then we would all be doing it for large amounts.

    Speaking of betting large amounts, if you are really enthused by your concept then I will bet you $10,000 that you can not mathematically validate its long term advantage. Let me know if you want the bet and we can talk and detail out the terms and conditions. Mine are that Schlesinger or someone of equal mathematical stature serve as the judge. You are welcome to present your person as a judge we just need to agree on one.

    Sure would like to do this before Christmas as I have six grand kids with two in college. LOL
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Let me put it this way. You record 5,000 hands. That’s an immense effort, assuming you do it correctly. So, you simulate a strategy against those 5,000 hands. It doesn’t work. You try another – it doesn’t work. You try another – it works. Hallelujah, you have discovered a strategy that works against that particular 5,000 hands. All you need now is a time machine.

    So, you write a book. Because you have discovered one of the millions of strategies that would work against that particular 5,000 hands. And, you claim that, somehow, it will magically work against a different set of 5,000 hands.

    Books that push this have cost gambling addicts billions.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by BJ_WIN View Post
    seriousplayer - I recorded about 120 hours for 1 1/2 years. Anyway, if anyone has a spreadsheet of dealt hands, I would appreciate it. I believe Walter Thomason used 5,000 dealt hands for his book. If anyone has a copy of those dealt hands, that would work as well.
    What about recorded plays for 5-20 years?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Nope.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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