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Thread: Sharky's NFL Play-o-the-Weak 2015

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    Sharky's NFL Play-o-the-Weak 2015

    Coming off of a 14-6 campaign last year (of course, previous results are no guarantee of future results…lol) I bring you this year’s play-o-the-weak and what better way to ring in the 2015 season then a MNF matchup.

    The SAN FRANCISCO 49ers play host to the Vikings in the ‘late night’ MNF game this week – perhaps they thought we couldn’t wait to bet the final game of the opening week? Well, they were wrong as this is a matchup of 2 teams going very different directions.

    The 49ers have lost a lot….be it suspension, injury, felonious activity, retirement, free agency, or deflection…while the Vikings have gotten back perhaps the best RB in AP (“forget Dickerson’s 2105, I’m shooting for 2500 yards”) and also added speedster wideout Wallace who should stretch the weak 49ers secondary. This will open up the run although after losing Justin Smith, Borland, Willis, McDonald, & Aldon Smith – they are clearly not the same “D”. All-Pro LB NaVorro Bowman returns after missing all of last year rehabbing that nasty knee injury in the 2013 NFC Championship game, but it won’t be enough.

    SF finished last year losing 5 of their last 6 (and 0-6-1 ATS) while being outscored 78-115, while the Vikes finished 3-3 and 5-1 ATS…expect much the same to start this year under new coach Tomsula…take the Vikings -2 for an EZ win.

    GOOD LUCK!

    Sharky

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    Nice analysis Sharky. Like the pick.

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    Senior Member Gamblor's Avatar
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    Definitely was leaning on Vikings too. Agreed Minnesota should be sneaky strong and of course SF bad, but tough to pull the trigger against a home dog.

    BUF +1.5 vs Ind - Buffalo should get some wind in the sail with Rex Ryan
    Miami -4 vs WAS - Washington is likely to get the first pick (so they can ruin Cardale Jone's career too), Miami should be solid/good
    STL +3.5 vs Sea - Should at least be close between these too rivals, often is, Seattle wins 16-13
    OAK +3 vs Cincy - I'll take the up and coming Raiders vs flat Cincy. Can't say Cincy is clearly a much better team than Oakland this season. Plus travel.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

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    I'm waiting to see how Petersons year off is going to affect him.
    "No sir, I have no experience, but I'm a big fan of money. I like it, I use it, I have a little. I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. I'd like to put more in that jar. That's where you come in." -Adam Sandler

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    3-1 last week. Friggin Jack Del Rio and Oakland, should of known better than to bet on him.

    Take KC -3 vs Den. KC at homefield should be rocking, Reid/KC has a tendency to start strong. Denver winning a somewhat close one at home is a bit disconcerting, and not too crazy about Denver D as others are, I don't think its easy to turn a meh D one year, into a strong D the next year. So yeah Denver D is a bit overrated right now.

    Wish I got this around KC -1.5
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

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    Senior Member Gamblor's Avatar
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    Oh dammit fuq me with a late game defensive TD lol.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

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    Tampa Bay visits NEW ORLEANS today coming off of a home opening day loss with a defense that was, well, offensive yielding 4 TDs and a perfect QB rating to rookie Titan QB Mariota....expect Brees and SAINTS to feast in their home opener...take NEW ORLEANS -10 for this week' play.

    GOOD LUCK,

    Sharky

    Last week: 0-1
    Season: 0-1

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    I follow a guy that has the Patriots +1 over the Bills today. Claims the public is hugely over reacting to Bills win over the Colts in week 1.

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    Have to say Sharky, yeah TB is baaaad, but tough to take -10 this early in the season. Almost tempted to take TB just for the sake of +10.

    And Tbonz, yeah it is a bit of an overreaction (I expected Buff to win handily against Indy, as it was a good matchup). But the Bills are a bad matchup for Pats, so can't bite. Should be a close one.

    stl -3 vs WAS - STONE COLD LOCK OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK. St. Louis might finally be shaping up, always had a lot of talented pieces. And of course Washington should be in the competition for the 1st pick in the draft.
    nyj +7 vs INDY - That's a lot of points. Jets at least have a serviceable game manager this year, which is a huge improvement for that team. And the Jets are somewhat the same bad matchup for Indy as Buffalo was.
    Last edited by Gamblor; 09-20-2015 at 08:18 AM.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

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    Yeah, I just think the Pats even with a questionable defense will scheme to get a pass rush on the Bills young QB and really put pressure on him. With McCoy having a bad hammy I think the Bills will be punchless on offense. Even if the Bills D plays well.....they won't completely shut down Brady. Steelers found out Brady is out to prove something this year after the deflate gate nonsense. I think the Bills are going to find out too.

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    Sorry for the bad advice Tbonz, but its looking like the Patriots are going to win handily (of course can never be so sure so early).

    Guess all the Bills smacktalk gave Bellicheck some motivational material for the Patriots.
    Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.

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    The upstart Falcoons face an injured Cowboy team today, take ATLANTA - 1

    GOOD LUCK,

    Sharky

    Last week: 0-1
    Season: 0-2

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    I would be leery of overestimating the Romo injury. He would be hard to replace for most teams but the Cowboys have systematically drafted one of the best O-lines over the past 5 years or so. They have some great running talent and receivers. You put that around any passable pro QB and you will have a good offense. Now Cleveland isn't exactly where you look for a QB. But Weeden was the one Brown QB that looked decent. If he can look good in Cleveland he should have no problem excelling with the Cowboy O around him. That said, with Dez Bryant that will surely be felt and the rest of the receivers will need to step up. The loss of both RDE's and only 1 backup at LDE will leave the D with a lack of depth at that position. That could be an issue especially if another injury where to sideline one of the remaining DE's.

    I think Sharky is right that the cluster of injury to the QB and their top receiver along with the starting RDE and his only backup are troubling injury clusters. Injury cluster's are what you look to exploit when handicapping. Except in rare cases an individual injury is not that big of a deal. The O-line that the Cowboys have assembled to protect the aging and fragile Romo from injury along with a strong running game would allow any decent QB to play to his best. Romo has been one hit away from a career ending injury for many years now. The Cowboys committed to keeping him and tried their best to protect him so that commitment would not end in an injury. Give a good pro QB time in the pocket and a running game to keep the D from committing to the pass and he will do fine. Of all the starting QB's to rotate through Cleveland's revolving door at QB, Weeden looked the best. Put a better team around him and he should look much better.

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