What are the cost of backing indices?

[seriousplayer]

For the play A8 vs 5,6 Hi-lo indices said to double down if the count is greater than or equal to 1 but instead if I double down on greater than or equal to 2. What is the loss for that play?

[Norm]

Didn't run it. But, it's tiny.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Yes, the difference is tiny and being a "double" a tiny degree of Risk Aversion is in

play. However, if you play (aggressively), by foolishly looking for situations to double,

doubling at +1 instead of +2, according to Peter Griffin, Ph.D.

"You are better off playing Basic Strategy."

[Tarzan]

A loss of 5 1/2 cents on the dollar? Somewhere around there, not enough to worry about and if you are doubling A,8vs6 at +2 instead of +1, it's not like you're doing a bad thing. That being said, you can choose to not read past this point or...

The reasoning for this is that if you remove enough (2) out of the low cards, you can be at "+3" and still be in the zone to stand! The EOR of the (2) is sort of high on this hand, -.009 (when standing), -.017 (when doubling), so if the reason the count is +1 or +2 is because of (2) removed then doubling is not the proper play. If you are at +1 or +2 and have A,8vs6, you should be asking yourself if you've seen any (2) come out of the deck... if you've seen a lot of (2) played up to that point then maybe standing at +1 is a darn good idea. If you know there are surplus (2), the index alters and you can rest assured that doubling at +1 is the proper move.

To put this into an example, you are playing a 2D game. TC+1, 1 1/2 decks remaining, you have A,8vs6. You have seen a bunch of (2) come out of the deck, at least four of them. Although the difference in EV is slight, the proper move is to stand. Same scenario but you don't recall seeing any (2) coming out of the deck, then +1 is guaranteed a good double with the surplus (2). In an even distribution of the {2-5}, meaning if there is 1 1/2 decks remaining and six (2) in the remainder, the index is +1. Not doubling until you have a solid +2 or +3 if you don't have specific knowledge of the (2) is not going to hurt you that much, especially if you don't have a bead on the (2) in surplus or deficit.

Just like a trip to Madam Q's Oriental Massage parlor, where the customer always comes first, there is a happy ending to this story. When it's right on the line, right on top of the index there's often only a difference of .002-.02 range in EV difference between decisions so when it's close like that it's nothing that's going to break you in the long haul. Not doubling this hand at +4 or more is going to cost you though. Doubling at -4 isn't going to be doing you any favors while you're at it (going with what Flash mentioned) but waiting to be at +2, or knowing no quantity of (2) have been removed in order to double at +1 is not going to hurt you.

[apkevy]

A loss of 5 1/2 cents on the dollar? Somewhere around there, not enough to worry about and if you are doubling A,8vs6 at +2 instead of +1, it's not like you're doing a bad thing. That being said, you can choose to not read past this point or...

The reasoning for this is that if you remove enough (2) out of the low cards, you can be at "+3" and still be in the zone to stand! The EOR of the (2) is sort of high on this hand, -.009 (when standing), -.017 (when doubling), so if the reason the count is +1 or +2 is because of (2) removed then doubling is not the proper play. If you are at +1 or +2 and have A,8vs6, you should be asking yourself if you've seen any (2) come out of the deck... if you've seen a lot of (2) played up to that point then maybe standing at +1 is a darn good idea. If you know there are surplus (2), the index alters and you can rest assured that doubling at +1 is the proper move.

To put this into an example, you are playing a 2D game. TC+1, 1 1/2 decks remaining, you have A,8vs6. You have seen a bunch of (2) come out of the deck, at least four of them. Although the difference in EV is slight, the proper move is to stand. Same scenario but you don't recall seeing any (2) coming out of the deck, then +1 is guaranteed a good double with the surplus (2). In an even distribution of the {2-5}, meaning if there is 1 1/2 decks remaining and six (2) in the remainder, the index is +1. Not doubling until you have a solid +2 or +3 if you don't have specific knowledge of the (2) is not going to hurt you that much, especially if you don't have a bead on the (2) in surplus or deficit.

Just like a trip to Madam Q's Oriental Massage parlor, where the customer always comes first, there is a happy ending to this story. When it's right on the line, right on top of the index there's often only a difference of .002-.02 range in EV difference between decisions so when it's close like that it's nothing that's going to break you in the long haul. Not doubling this hand at +4 or more is going to cost you though. Doubling at -4 isn't going to be doing you any favors while you're at it (going with what Flash mentioned) but waiting to be at +2, or knowing no quantity of (2) have been removed in order to double at +1 is not going to hurt you.

Tarzan, I have heard about the Tarzan count ( I assume you invented it )

How much can you expect to gain in % compared to lets say Hi Lo for shoe games and Hi Opt II for DD ?