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Thread: BJ Results: YTD

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Freighter, I think players can get caught in a trap of over thinking. Take care of your game/dollars and they will take care you. It's better to be a great player and good accountant than a mediocre player and a great accountant. Sort of like a dime holding up a dollar.
    There are perfect examples floating around

  2. #15


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    One reason why I haven't tracked my EV in BJ is also because I was not planning on playing too much BJ.


    KJ, I think the best way to account for EV in machine-play where you don't know exactly what your advantage is [ie: you don't know what you're going to get back], is just count all coin-in as having an EV of -HE. If you do $10K coin in on 9/6 JOB, then count that as -0.0046 * $10,000 = -$46. When you pick up free-play [let's say it's $300 total], then you count it as $300 * 0.9954 = $298.62 [if you pick it up on 9/6 JOB, that is].

    For sessions that can be counted as having EV, you log the EV for it. For things that can't have an EV assigned to it (because it's way too difficult), you just don't assign EV to it. Now you have 2 types of sessions, one type has EV the other doesn't. When/if you want to see where you are compared to EV (actual vs EV), you only pull data from the EV-assigned sessions. Also, for those types of things where you can't figure out the EV perfectly, sometimes you can figure it out. Maybe you get called on a drawing -- you'd have to know how many tickets you have, how many tickets are in the drum, average prize, etc. And although it's not perfect, you could just figure your EV is whatever the average prize is [even though in reality, your EV is going to be lower than that, because normally you wouldn't expect to get called once for every drawing].
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    I think the best way to account for EV in machine-play where you don't know exactly what your advantage is [ie: you don't know what you're going to get back], is just count all coin-in as having an EV of -HE. If you do $10K coin in on 9/6 JOB, then count that as -0.0046 * $10,000 = -$46.
    I agree AND track the results against the actual to see if you are performing at a "optimum" level in the long run. Having done this for $4.5 million in coin in we had a loss ratio (for coin in only) of -.58% which was indicative of our error rate. Overall our "advantage" was about 2% of coin in when we included coupons, offers, etc. Playing the machines correctly is very difficult to learn and is very error prone. Get feedback, adjust and continue...... are a necessity.

    As RS knows, this is an advantage play that is highly complimentary to other games, certainly blackjack. It becomes a powerful co-variance to your overall bank.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  4. #17
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Yes I could come home and spend time running sims for each of these 20 different sessions, to come up with a more exact EV total. But that would add hours per day to my record keeping
    Here is a program that does all that for you automatically. All you have to do is enter your session details and the program does the rest.

    http://blackjackscience.com/productdetails.php?id=70
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    Here is a program that does all that for you automatically. All you have to do is enter your session details and the program does the rest.

    http://blackjackscience.com/productdetails.php?id=70
    This looks good. Anyone else tried it or use it? Review?

  6. #19
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    This looks good. Anyone else tried it or use it? Review?
    It is new ZeeBaBar. I doubt anyone has used it.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  7. #20


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    I play machines all over vegas. I wouldn't mind doing a hit and run BJ shoe after my pickup for extra EV but not if it's going to affect machine play in any way. Does anyone else deal with this?

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by biggg View Post
    I play machines all over vegas. I wouldn't mind doing a hit and run BJ shoe after my pickup for extra EV but not if it's going to affect machine play in any way. Does anyone else deal with this?
    I assume you mean affect offers/coupons, etc for machines. If you play BJ rated it will likely affect how you are getting offers. Suggest play BJ unrated and then you should get no interference.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    I assume you mean affect offers/coupons, etc for machines. If you play BJ rated it will likely affect how you are getting offers. Suggest play BJ unrated and then you should get no interference.
    Yeah I would never play rated counting BJ in Las Vegas. What I mean is, are there cases where casinos will try and figure out who you are (even though you never show ID or players card to the pit) and then no-mail you?

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by biggg View Post
    Yeah I would never play rated counting BJ in Las Vegas. What I mean is, are there cases where casinos will try and figure out who you are (even though you never show ID or players card to the pit) and then no-mail you?
    Have not had that experience. Have not experienced, or heard of, someone getting backed off the machines from OSN or facial recognition...?

    There are stores that will send a host to show up at your machine while you a playing an offer (or any other time your card is in the machine if you play big). There objective is both to "host" you and to insure you are who the offer was issued to. Collecting offers for others will get you no-mailed. Collecting offers with no play can get you no mailed. All of these concerns can get complex and are very store dependent.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #24


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    From the perspective of the more senior members, I can understand how you would have become attuned over time to evaluating your performance. For the less experienced players, I think we both like having data and feel more secure seeing results as much as we can identify them. Maybe part of the "does this really work" syndrome as we develop confidence.

    I wanted to echo Bodarc's comments on the tracker available at Blackjackscience.com. For the new guys especially, I think its a good habit to track your play.
    Oneoff


    I'm not a bad player... I just play cover on every hand!

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