Scenario: You are playing 0.18 HE single deck. You are only dealt 2 rounds. You place a 10x bet the first round. If the count goes positive you keep the same bet. If the count goes negative you drop your bet to 1x. I assume this would give the player an edge although not a very high edge. How would you calculate the player's edge?
Bare in mind that Marlene and Moses are
referring TWO very different flavors of SD.
Marlene is referencing a fine game that can be
well-beaten with a 3-1 spread and any Level 2,
non Ace Reckoned Count. Moses' game has a
H.E. MORE than twice that of Marlene's game.
Marlene, I think you are still playing at a disadvantage or at most a break even. Here's why:
Your first bet at 10x will always be at a -.18%
Your second bet should follow the count frequency of single deck with 2 rounds played and win rates for the rules of that game. That means 81.34% of the time you will be making a 1x bet and 18.66% of the time you will be betting 10x at true count of +1 or better.
If you go through the multiplication process of the frequencies, win rates and bets, and then average the two bets, I come up with a .08% house edge.
Hopefully Don, Stealth or someone will be watching and can verify my thinking.
Last edited by Bodarc; 09-04-2015 at 12:21 AM.
Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
Since the post this am, I ran 3 sims using $250 as the first bet after a shuffle. Then the next hand using counts <1 at $25 and >=1 at $250. Hi Lo Sweet 16 and rules that gave approx -.18 HE. Here is what I think is happening. This may be a case where more players are better than heads up. With only 1 player, you have 2 X 2.7 = 5.4 cards seen before you have to make your second bet. Therefore, you very seldom have a high count.
With 4 players, you get 13 cards seen before you have to make your second bet so you have a better chance of an increase in true count. This is assuming you get two hands dealt regardless of the number of players. This is not taking any decrease in hands per hour into account. I would think hands per hour would be very low if they shuffle after 2 rounds unless they have an automatic shuffler.
Here are the results of the sims:
Players TBA% $ Per Hour SD/Hr SCORE
1 ,,,,,,,,.226 ,,,,,47.26,,,,$2,395,,,, 3.89
3 ,,,,,,,,.395,,,,,,85.23,,,,,,2,436,,,12.24
4 ,,,,,,,,.449,,,,,,96.82,,,,,,2,432,, 15.84
If anyone else has run a sim on this strategy, I'd like to compare results.
That will work in theory but sims don't work well for single deck in my opinion having actually played it. I know there is rule of 5-7 which is what they are supposed to go by, however my experience is that most dealers just kind of go by the feel of the cards in their hand, how much you tip, how much you spread and whether they like you. And a 6 round game has a SCORE like 3 times a 4 round game so this is a huge deal. The nasty thing is that you get a kind of pref shuffle effect where they will shuffle early after small cards because small card hands take more cards out of the deck. Also some dealers are just stone cold pref shufflers. For this reason I usually stick to cut card games, I will play some single deck for fun when I'm in Tahoe but otherwise I stay away.
About single deck only place that really offers it is Reno and there are like 3 casinos there at most that will take any bets at all and by bets I mean, you can bet 500 and they wont kick you out in 15 minutes, not 2x1000 or something. Furthermore counting at single deck is completely obvious and all the dealers know since the only dealers left in Reno are house dealers that have been dealing for 10+ years minimum. I actually don't think cover is worth it at all and I have even admitted to counting to a couple dealers which I never do elsewhere. Instead I just tip on the first big bet and then throw them out from time to time always in high counts (don't overdo it) to discourage a shuffle which gives up some EV but usually works.
I think Reno could be a pretty good place if you were a red chipper and were down to your last 10k or something and had to make a living from BJ somehow. Just walk around spreading 15-150 there are like 10 places that will take that. A nice middle class living.
Oh and one last thing if you do go to Reno to try this out, do not play at the @tlantis no matter what unless you want to be flyered all over town and get backed off on sight at the semi-tolerant stores.
Last edited by biggg; 09-06-2015 at 11:34 PM.
Gee, not the Cortez... =pOriginally Posted by Marlene
Gain Per Hand w/ TC = 0 and $100 bet at this game = -6.59
Gain Per Hand w/ TC = 0 and $10 bet at this game = -0.66
This cover play is costing you about $6 every time you do it. If you're trying to 10x off the top for cover, just do you normal hourly EV and then estimate how many decks/deals you get in an hour. Let's say you get 10 decks/deals in an hour... that means you'll employ this 'cover' play 10 times per hour. Well this cover costs you an extra ~$6 every time you use it. So if you do it 10 times per hour, this cover is costing you $60/hour off your EV... ouch?
Last edited by Romes; 09-09-2015 at 01:53 PM.
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