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Thread: Variance ?

  1. #1


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    Variance ?

    I'm dissapointed about my last session.

    Looking back, I did everything the right way, I used my regular RA Indices, played the same strategy as before, etc.

    On that session,

    I barely played more than 40 rounds

    I wonged in at TC +2 and wonged out if TC<1 on a 8 deck game

    I've seen about 300 rounds on that session ), going 2x1 units to 2x2 units if TC > 4.

    Over the course of 4 hours, I lost all of my trip bankroll ( 36 units )

    I used CVCX to calculate the chances of this happening : 2,45%

    I don't really care about the loss,

    I am more scared because if an event that is 2,45% likely to happen has happened to me

    Then if I am playing with 2% RoR with no time constraint/goals I could lose it all !

    I'm no longer sure I want to continue counting cards, last session results are scary...

  2. #2
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by apkevy View Post
    I'm dissapointed about my last session.

    Looking back, I did everything the right way, I used my regular RA Indices, played the same strategy as before, etc.

    On that session,

    I barely played more than 40 rounds

    I wonged in at TC +2 and wonged out if TC<1 on a 8 deck game

    I've seen about 300 rounds on that session ), going 2x1 units to 2x2 units if TC > 4.

    Over the course of 4 hours, I lost all of my trip bankroll ( 36 units )

    I used CVCX to calculate the chances of this happening : 2,45%

    I don't really care about the loss,

    I am more scared because if an event that is 2,45% likely to happen has happened to me

    Then if I am playing with 2% RoR with no time constraint/goals I could lose it all !

    I'm no longer sure I want to continue counting cards, last session results are scary...
    The variance is only one small facit of being a successful AP. Dealing with IRS will be your biggest test in that area.

  3. #3


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    I understand variance,

    I know there is going to be a lot of losing sessions, even months.

    But would you qualify losing 10% of your BR in just 3-4 hours "usual" ?

    I just started playing BJ seriously as an AP, so far 6 sessions and I'm still under initial BR.

    I've seen what variance is

    But so far only negative "extreme variance sessions"

    I've never won more than 10 units in a session,

    Losing 36 arouses my curiosity

    Thoughts such as "does card counting really works after all ? " are crossing my mind...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwocky View Post
    The variance is only one small facit of being a successful AP. Dealing with IRS will be your biggest test in that area.

  4. #4


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    You think you understand variance. i have had session where i played with a 2.5% advantage and lost 60+ bets in about 300 bets,every bet had about 2.5 % advantage.That is about 60 max bets . Most members here probably lost half or close to half their bankroll numerous times. It happens and will continue to happen ,but the opposite is also true but with a higher frequency.

  5. #5


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    I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    It appears you have played 6 sessions and watched about 300 rounds each so somewhere around 1800 rounds total.
    In the last session you played 40 rounds and lost 36 units playing 2 to 4 units a round. You say you understand variance, then you should understand that with such a short playing history it can happen (someone has to be in the 2.45% bracket).

    I think you should play smaller stakes and get more casino time in and try to locate what is causing your problem. Is it really variance or are you doing something wrong. Six sessions is not very much of a learning curve.

    In the meantime, here is a very good website that is loaded with info to study.

    http://www.blackjackstartup.com/N0I.htm
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterhoudini View Post
    I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.
    I lost 36 units, playing 2x1 on TC [2,4[ and 2x2 units on TC 4+, so I have lost 9(2x2) max bets in 40 rounds of play

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    It appears you have played 6 sessions and watched about 300 rounds each so somewhere around 1800 rounds total.
    In the last session you played 40 rounds and lost 36 units playing 2 to 4 units a round. You say you understand variance, then you should understand that with such a short playing history it can happen (someone has to be in the 2.45% bracket).

    I think you should play smaller stakes and get more casino time in and try to locate what is causing your problem. Is it really variance or are you doing something wrong. Six sessions is not very much of a learning curve.

    In the meantime, here is a very good website that is loaded with info to study.

    http://www.blackjackstartup.com/N0I.htm
    I got everything down.. I have my own Indices generated from CVIndex, I bet optimally using CVCX, I'm comfortable playing in a casino, True Count conversions are rapidly calculated, betting half kelly, playing a a 5.01 DI strategy. N0 is only 34000 rounds SEEN so about 4000 rounds played.

    I guess I will continue to play until my E.V reaches 2 standard deviations, if at this point I am not in profits, I will call it quits..

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by apkevy View Post
    I got everything down.. I have my own Indices generated from CVIndex, I bet optimally using CVCX, I'm comfortable playing in a casino, True Count conversions are rapidly calculated, betting half kelly, playing a a 5.01 DI strategy. N0 is only 34000 rounds SEEN so about 4000 rounds played.

    I guess I will continue to play until my E.V reaches 2 standard deviations, if at this point I am not in profits, I will call it quits..
    Just wUt itll u have a 3sd swing - oops - don't think u can at those soreads

  10. #10


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    I think it's wayyyy too early for you to be concerned about variance. What you've experienced seems totally normal and well within expectation. Losing sucks, we all get frustrated and are human- hang in there, gotta have mental toughness to survive buddy.

    Early on, when I suffered several single session (3hrs or so) losing streaks of 200 units (munchkin/bp definition of unit- the bet you have out with 0.5% advantage), or about 20 max bets, I would just be beside myself- I couldn't sleep well, and would swear I would retire from the biz lamenting I couldn't win. I didn't have any support around me at the time and did not even post on the forums, just had to get myself through it. Let me tell you, it gets better and you become seasoned to it. The math always evens out- seriously it always does, and you get your EV.
    The going gets tough when you start to have 300+ hour losing streaks or lose 1/3, or more of your bankroll. I remember losing a little over 100k (more than 100 max bets) in the span of about 2 weeks with 30 hours play. This was devastating to me, it crushes your soul seriously. But, you just play through it and believe in the math. There's always tomorrow and there's always the next shoe. Don't give up- you may feel in the dumps and want to more than anything, but I can assure you, there's light at the end of the tunnel- run towards it!! There's always tomorrow and there's always the next shoe. Keep your head up!

  11. #11
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by apkevy View Post
    N0 is only 34000 rounds SEEN
    When you reach that point, you'll have about 84% chance of not being behind.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterhoudini View Post
    I think it's wayyyy too early for you to be concerned about variance. What you've experienced seems totally normal and well within expectation. Losing sucks, we all get frustrated and are human- hang in there, gotta have mental toughness to survive buddy.

    Early on, when I suffered several single session (3hrs or so) losing streaks of 200 units (munchkin/bp definition of unit- the bet you have out with 0.5% advantage), or about 20 max bets, I would just be beside myself- I couldn't sleep well, and would swear I would retire from the biz lamenting I couldn't win. I didn't have any support around me at the time and did not even post on the forums, just had to get myself through it. Let me tell you, it gets better and you become seasoned to it. The math always evens out- seriously it always does, and you get your EV.
    The going gets tough when you start to have 300+ hour losing streaks or lose 1/3, or more of your bankroll. I remember losing a little over 100k (more than 100 max bets) in the span of about 2 weeks with 30 hours play. This was devastating to me, it crushes your soul seriously. But, you just play through it and believe in the math. There's always tomorrow and there's always the next shoe. Don't give up- you may feel in the dumps and want to more than anything, but I can assure you, there's light at the end of the tunnel- run towards it!! There's always tomorrow and there's always the next shoe. Keep your head up!
    I'm also not getting any support.
    I'm very young and people my age would propably not understand a thing about how card counting works.

    Only one of my friend who is studying economics understands the way card counting works.
    He sometimes comes with me to the casino to watch me play and he likes to sustain 10% of my trip bankroll so he gets 10% of my winnings or losings ( is that a word lol?).

    I would like to thank you for the support you just gave me. I do believe in the maths and the long run. I guess once I get that positive big swing it will release those doubts that I have.

    Thanks again MasterH

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Masterhoudini View Post
    I am confused. Did you lose 36 max bets or units? Also what is your definition of unit? 36 max bets is a lot for 4 hours and would certainly be devastating.
    My definition of unit is the bet that I have on the table per/hand ( I play 2 hands/round ) when I perceive a 0.5% edge in my favor.

    So on a TC +2 I have 2 hands of 1 unit.

    I know losing 36 units sounds quite usual but the thing is that I am only spreading from 2x1 to 2x2, so 36 units is quite a lot for such a short period of time.. I think it's a 2 s.d. swing !
    Last edited by apkevy; 08-03-2015 at 12:42 PM.

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