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Thread: Reducing bets after win??

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    Reducing bets after win??

    Hello all,

    I'm having trouble finding information on rudimentary aspects, or 'rules' if you will about things like this. When playing on the tables on CVBJ there will be times when the true count will rise significantly and one round later, with four hands being dealt it could very well drop back down.

    My question is while playing at a casino, say were at TC +4 which is about 10 unit bet playing 6 deck, and the hand is a winner but the true count drops down to say +1 or 0, do you wager accordingly? Isnt it overly suspicious to drop the bet after a big win? Do you risk your cover to align with your spread, or risk your bankroll to cover image? Thanks again everyone

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jc3 View Post
    Do you risk your cover to align with your spread, or risk your bankroll to cover image?
    Yes, and determining how to deal with this issue is as important, if not more, than counting itself!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jc3 View Post
    Hello all,

    I'm having trouble finding information on rudimentary aspects, or 'rules' if you will about things like this. When playing on the tables on CVBJ there will be times when the true count will rise significantly and one round later, with four hands being dealt it could very well drop back down.

    My question is while playing at a casino, say were at TC +4 which is about 10 unit bet playing 6 deck, and the hand is a winner but the true count drops down to say +1 or 0, do you wager accordingly? Isnt it overly suspicious to drop the bet after a big win? Do you risk your cover to align with your spread, or risk your bankroll to cover image? Thanks again everyone
    That's a lot of volatility. You are either playing at a full table, or towards the end of a probable deeply cut shoe. Every number of decks brings with it its own art form. If at a full table, I would agree that you should reduce your wager as much as possible in accordance with the count. DD is also an art form which is a lot more sensitive to count adjustments.

    Depending on the constraints of your bankroll, the heads up or 1 other person at the table, change in deck strength are somewhat more subtle, allowing, for example, opposition betting - so - I sometimes increase my bet in that scenario, and sometimes start a gradual climb downwards. In any event, there is a good explanation of the concept in Snyders Blackbelt in Blackjack.

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    Several authors had suggested increasing bets only if the prior hand was a win AND the count justified it.

    The corollary of reducing bet sizes only after losing and the T C had dropped, completed the (obvious) pattern.

    By seriously strangling your bet-sizing, you will be giving away a LOT of your equity. Much more than you think.

    Thirty or forty years ago, the games were great and the heat was low and this actually did work fairly well.

    In the 21st Century you will certainly be costing yourself a lot of amount of money. So much so, that you'll lose.

    Your edge is (increasingly) slim these days, you cannot afford this classic 20th century game plan.

    Last edited by ZenMaster_Flash; 07-30-2015 at 04:31 PM.

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    Agree with ZMF. In todays game of shrinking advantage things that were once called not worth it when games became worse initially are becoming a more and more significant parts of your total EV making them more worth the effort while giving away chunks of your EV as described here become more costly.

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    i ALWAYS adjust my bet according to the count....i could not care less if pit is peering on me at the time....go ahead, kick me out...will just go to the next place

    people, while the game are NOT nearly as good as yesteryear....THERE ARE GREAT GAMES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY NOW....get out and SPREAD it out....love all these kats who worry about heat and have never been 86d

    of course, i don't play rated...EVER...and stay the hell away from vegas....unless, of course, you like to make a name for yourself

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    i ALWAYS adjust my bet according to the count....i could not care less if pit is peering on me at the time....go ahead, kick me out...will just go to the next place

    people, while the game are NOT nearly as good as yesteryear....THERE ARE GREAT GAMES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY NOW....get out and SPREAD it out....love all these kats who worry about heat and have never been 86d

    of course, i don't play rated...EVER...and stay the hell away from vegas....unless, of course, you like to make a name for yourself
    spread like a deranged MADMAN again tonight...you guys keep "protecting the games"....and i'll keep KILLING them...

    THANKS!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    spread like a deranged MADMAN again tonight...you guys keep "protecting the games"....and i'll keep KILLING them...

    THANKS!!!
    For part-timers, there is no choice. I have a full time job and one casino within 100 miles which provides about 75% of the hours I put in lately. Thus, I am not about to lose it. A different strategy on a visit elsewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    spread like a deranged MADMAN again tonight...you guys keep "protecting the games"....and i'll keep KILLING them...

    THANKS!!!
    There is always a greedy bastard that is going to be a part of making all BJ unplayable. Hopefully you will only kill your opportunities but often the games are killed in the wake of selfish people. We all know the type. A business will offer free stuff once a month to help out the needy with a sign saying take what you need. Then some greedy A-hole pulls up in his mercedes pops the trunk and puts all the food goods and used clothes in it despite the shivering and hungry homeless guys hoping to get a coat or a decent meal that didn't come from a dumpster. I guess the idea that we protect the identity of other APs should be tossed aside when we see such a greedy person trying to destroy one of our great games. I know that most of us would never consider that but I have read things written by the slash and burn opportunities types that say they do exactly this to their competition.

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    Tthree,

    Touche´

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    There is always a greedy bastard that is going to be a part of making all BJ unplayable. ....
    not greedy a all, just have to make it worth my time

    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    in the wake of selfish people. We all know the type. A business will offer free stuff once a month to help out the needy with a sign saying take what you need. Then some greedy A-hole pulls up in his mercedes pops the trunk...
    not selfish at all...donate thousands to charity everyear....so i happen to drive the nicest vehicles on the road...no crime there, either...basically, my intent is to WREAK money...from my hair, clothes, manicured nails, expensive watches.....someone when you see, you say...ok, this KAT has cash....precisely what i want them to think....if you do not know what i mean...watch an interview of anyone famous...the STYLE, the look, the confidence, the wardrobe...accessories.. ...i am white lebron...lol

    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    ... I guess the idea that we protect the identity of other APs should be tossed aside when we see such a greedy person trying to destroy one of our great games. I know that most of us would never consider that but I have read things written by the slash and burn opportunities types that say they do exactly this to their competition.

    call me what you like, i see me as an opportunist....travel all over the country in a rental car, play unrated....like a GHOST...FIRE AWAY!!!l...leave....repeat....humming on my way out the door "you've been hit by, you've been struck by, a KOOL criminal...dennnt, deeent, da, da, dennt, deentt da, da, deent deent"

    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    ...I know that most of us would never consider that but I have read things written by the slash and burn opportunities types that say they do exactly this to their competition.
    frankly, you are one of the one's i was talking about...believe you mentioned 1 86...(of course, i do not read your posts over, like, one small paragraph, so something may have changed)....point is you do not know the tolerance UNTIL YOU PUSH THE ENVELOPE...besides the point is....I WOULD PICK YOU OFF AS A COUNTER IN THE FIRST SHOE....SO SO CAN THEY....you are not fooling anyone
    Last edited by Sharky; 07-31-2015 at 05:46 AM.

  12. #12


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    I have adapted my betting a bit from a 1 unit 2 unit 3 unit approach. I know people have said don't keep you chips in nice piles but I love to keep my chips stacked and organized into groups of $25 or $50 for red, $100 for green, $ 500 for black etc. Now mind I am often tossing a few more chips on the circle or betting a bit less if one of the unit stacks is say at $20 instead of $25. But I do this in rough accordance with the count. Essentially I anchor my minimum and maximum bets as a set amount. The rest of the time I bet to finish off my stacks or not break another stack down. (Again still in rough accordance with the count) "Hey... what's that lonely red chip... might as well throw it onto the top of the two green." or "Man I really don't want to break this stack of greens.." so I bet smaller.

    Just trying to not be robotic in how I bet. It is also fun to thorn in some white and pink and I always ask them not to convert these. After some tipping with white and pink the dealer gets the drill, they are happy, and I am now a tipper even if it is only for $1.00. Still I think tipping 10 hands of a $1.00- in a row has more of an impact on the dealer than betting two hands of $5.00 through the show. Which do you think they will remember more?

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by drunk View Post
    Even more ridiculously suspicious looking is winning several max bets at the end of a shoe and then making a minimum bet at the start of the next shoe. I would love to hear some comments about that.
    Its been covered a lot in books that this is a red flag. That is also why many advise that you play till you have a chance to fire off you max bets and then leave regardless of win or loss. Short sessions are often highly recommended. On the flip side it depends on how big your max bet was. If your max bet was say $100 and on the next show you bet $30.00 to start that is far different than coming back and betting $5.00 or $10. If I fire off my max bets and had a nice streak at the end I am more than willing to lead off with bigger bet on the first hand of a new shoe to see how it may evolve. Win or loose after the first hand you can reduce the bet if you wish. Its all about being creative... What about spreading to two hand right off the bat. Two hands of $30.00 if you max bets were $100 is something that would not look too odd. Throw that money around, "gamble", mix things up a bit. Randomness is always a good thing... don't be a robot.

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