Reducing bets after win??

[bigplayer]

Anytime you bet sub-optimally you are decreasing your earnings potential and increasing the amount of time it takes for you to get into the long run. If you change your bets away from an optimal bet spread you should understand fully the costs of doing so and be wagering at high enough levels to justify the change. All too often I see people whose top bets are something like two hands of $150 spending loads of time worrying about cover when in fact they should be more concerned with building their bankroll or finding ways to get more than two hands of $150 on the table.

If you play the types of games typical today (shoes with mediocre cuts) the count will not change all that dramatically. The biggest and toughest bet jump to make is when you're going from your absolute minimum bet to 1 or 2 betting units. If you're spreading 1x25 to 2x400 then that jump from one hand of $25 to two hands of $150 is the most transparent one you will make that entire shoe and finding tricky ways to make that particular bet jump is the key to staying hidden. Once you're betting 2@$200 it's nothing to chip up and down in black as the count goes up and down....a maximum bet is never more than a parlay away at that point. My suggestion is if you win and the count is close to break even go ahead and increase your bet somewhat because it positions you to more easily make the jump to your official betting unit should the count increase further. Aside from that, I don't like betting more or less than I'm supposed to because the best cover is to limit session lengths, not limit your bets. (although there are some tricky things you can do with play cover that carries very little to no cost that I think works well)

Almost forgot, square players take their bets down all the time to "lock in their win" . It doesn't look odd to anyone although it does provide another data-point for someone running a computerized skills check on your, but if that is the case you're toast anyway.

[ZeeBabar]

Anytime you bet sub-optimally you are decreasing your earnings potential and increasing the amount of time it takes for you to get into the long run. If you change your bets away from an optimal bet spread you should understand fully the costs of doing so and be wagering at high enough levels to justify the change. All too often I see people whose top bets are something like two hands of $150 spending loads of time worrying about cover when in fact they should be more concerned with building their bankroll or finding ways to get more than two hands of $150 on the table.

If you play the types of games typical today (shoes with mediocre cuts) the count will not change all that dramatically. The biggest and toughest bet jump to make is when you're going from your absolute minimum bet to 1 or 2 betting units. If you're spreading 1x25 to 2x400 then that jump from one hand of $25 to two hands of $150 is the most transparent one you will make that entire shoe and finding tricky ways to make that particular bet jump is the key to staying hidden. Once you're betting 2@$200 it's nothing to chip up and down in black as the count goes up and down....a maximum bet is never more than a parlay away at that point. My suggestion is if you win and the count is close to break even go ahead and increase your bet somewhat because it positions you to more easily make the jump to your official betting unit should the count increase further. Aside from that, I don't like betting more or less than I'm supposed to because the best cover is to limit session lengths, not limit your bets. (although there are some tricky things you can do with play cover that carries very little to no cost that I think works well)

Almost forgot, square players take their bets down all the time to "lock in their win" . It doesn't look odd to anyone although it does provide another data-point for someone running a computerized skills check on your, but if that is the case you're toast anyway.

"the best cover is to limit session" is truly a pro description. The reality is that most of us who live in areas where we drive 2-6 hours to get to a casino cannot win a max bet or two and leave the casino after 20 minutes and drive back. So it's got to be longer sessions and managing bet amounts. If I drive 3 hours one way to play at a single casino, I am thinking of playing 2-4 hours and then assessing heat, crowds (to decide whether to wong out or play all) and other factors as I decide on ramping and other issues.

i wish I could just bet optimally and leave after a shoe but it does not make sense when there is not another casino in a 100+ miles.

[bigplayer]

You could play 40 minutes and color up ending your session, go have a drink at the bar, then come back and play another 40 minutes, then go eat dinner, then come back and play another 40 minutes. That's two hours of play over three sessions with one single visit to a casino. I said limit your sessions, not your total playing time.

[Sharky]

Even more ridiculously suspicious looking is winning several max bets at the end of a shoe and then making a minimum bet at the start of the next shoe. I would love to hear some comments about that.

If you win "several max bets" you should hv positioned yourself to walk away (happily)...if you are not content with this winnings...you simply are not spreading NEARLY enough.(I shoot for 100x)...if you spread several max and lose, perfectly acceptable to retreat to min bet

[Bobcat]

Several authors had suggested increasing bets only if the prior hand was a win AND the count justified it.

The corollary of reducing bet sizes only after losing and the T C had dropped, completed the (obvious) pattern.

By seriously strangling your bet-sizing, you will be giving away a LOT of your equity. Much more than you think.

Thirty or forty years ago, the games were great and the heat was low and this actually did work fairly well.

In the 21st Century you will certainly be costing yourself a lot of amount of money. So much so, that you'll lose.

Your edge is (increasingly) slim these days, you cannot afford this classic 20th century game plan.

Keeping a big bet out there after a win is a worthwhile strategy at a hand-held game where you want to play for a while. You can't Wong in and out of these games. And you will separate yourself from obvious counters who are betting in lockstep with the count. Some dealers actually will announce "Cutting back after a win!" when a winner drops to a lower bet. You will certainly lose some value from sub-optimal betting, but probably less than you think, especially when you factor in the dead time if you are Wonging out. I also think the EITS is most likely focused on the bet/count correlation, so occasionally you will benefit from a lucky streak through a negative count. This is also a good reason to play these games with a high-PE counting scheme. Again these comments are directed to hand-held games, not to shoes.

[moo321]

Most of the cover advice out there is stupid, counterproductive, and EXTREMELY harmful to your bottom line. I cannot tell you how many times I've heard red chip counters talk about their stupid (yes, stupid) cover ideas that they cling to with blind faith. It's a serious disservice that these blackjack authors need to correct.

Camo like "never decrease after a win" is absolutely abysmally bad advice. Horrible. Why? It's not going to save you from a sharp crew. But it will light your money on fire. Now, there are ways you can trick a sharp crew without cutting your edge in half, but I can only think of one or two that are even in print.

Learn about heat: what is heat, who brings heat, how to turn heat, when to leave, etc. And then MAYBE think about learning how to use cover. Otherwise, play your game, and call me when you get a few hundred hours down at a table.

[mushin]

Learn about heat: what is heat, who brings heat, how to turn heat, when to leave, etc. And then MAYBE think about learning how to use cover. Otherwise, play your game, and call me when you get a few hundred hours down at a table.

Moo... this is a great comment. I want to give a perspective. When I first started playing I could care less about heat... that is until I started reading about people being backed off and how they can no longer play at X Y and Z. From a new player perspective I was scared that I would be discovered because I knew that I was not good yet and if a pro is being backed off.. well as a newbie I would have no chance. I really almost wish I had not even learned about all the backoff stories because it really did have a negative impact. The first few times I started placing black on the table for my max bets I felt like swat team would be dropping from the ceiling with a tress pass slip. I began to backpedal on my play... thinking... I need to hide my bets etc.

The other thing I remember as a new player was that the first time a critter struck up a conversation with me while I was playing I thought that was heat and he was on to me. (Although at that stage I had never bet higher that $50.00.) Over time I observed that he tends to talk to players for a few after they have settled at a table for a bit... but never too long and if you give even a moderate amount of time at the table, are nice to the dealers and cut it up with him for a minute or two he is worth a comp every time. So what I thought as a rank and file newbie was heat was actually nothing other than someone being social which in turn has led to many free meals.

One thing that really caused the disconnect for me was that in so many of the conversations about heat little is said about level at which someone is playing. As I said early on I was so worried about heat that It really impacted my play and instead placing max bets that my bank said were justified I chickened out in fear of being discovered with a "checks Play" or "black action". As you have said call you when the player has a few hundred hours at the table.... well now I realize that at my stakes my max were a joke... nothing to even care about. Once I get a feel for how often people bet chunky green and black every hand I realized what a wimp I was back then. What was missing for me was context.... The first time I won $700ish in one shoe I was still in that mindset of being found out... but looking back at that I remember that I never bet over $60.00 the entire shoe. I was winning thorough the whole range of the count from low to high and catching the cards for my splits and doubles as well. In context now I realize that that $700ish win really was nothing more than a great positive varrience because I sure as heck did not have enough of a beat spread to be playing with an advantage. Now I wonder what that win would have been had I actually used a proper bet ramp? Yep... heat worries held me back in that regard.. It also stalled my growth as a player because had I not worried about heat I would have been able to build the mental fortitude to place max bets much earlier. I missed out on key experiences that every player needs to go though... like loosing real max bets after max bet. Or being put in a situation where you split to 4 hands then then have to double 1 or more of the splits with a real max bet. Or actually taking insurance on a hand where you have a significant amount on the table... Emotions make it far easier to take insurance for $25.00 than for $100.00. At least when that is something you are not used to.

I know all this is nothing new to the experienced players but maybe some of the new guys will identify with this and relax a bit... don't be too quick to think you are public enemy number one to the casino. In context you like me are probably of little concern to the casino's bottom line. Take moos post to heart. Learn to recognize heat and deal with it.... but also realize that for the most part the "heat" you are getting is self induced fear because you are lacking experience, perspective or are paranoid from hearing the war stories of the people playing much longer.

[moo321]

Cellini's book is a great place to start. Read that before you ever think about using cover.

[Bigdaddy]

Moo... this is a great comment. I want to give a perspective. When I first started playing I could care less about heat... that is until I started reading about people being backed off and how they can no longer play at X Y and Z. From a new player perspective I was scared that I would be discovered because I knew that I was not good yet and if a pro is being backed off.. well as a newbie I would have no chance. I really almost wish I had not even learned about all the backoff stories because it really did have a negative impact. The first few times I started placing black on the table for my max bets I felt like swat team would be dropping from the ceiling with a tress pass slip. I began to backpedal on my play... thinking... I need to hide my bets etc.

The other thing I remember as a new player was that the first time a critter struck up a conversation with me while I was playing I thought that was heat and he was on to me. (Although at that stage I had never bet higher that $50.00.) Over time I observed that he tends to talk to players for a few after they have settled at a table for a bit... but never too long and if you give even a moderate amount of time at the table, are nice to the dealers and cut it up with him for a minute or two he is worth a comp every time. So what I thought as a rank and file newbie was heat was actually nothing other than someone being social which in turn has led to many free meals.

One thing that really caused the disconnect for me was that in so many of the conversations about heat little is said about level at which someone is playing. As I said early on I was so worried about heat that It really impacted my play and instead placing max bets that my bank said were justified I chickened out in fear of being discovered with a "checks Play" or "black action". As you have said call you when the player has a few hundred hours at the table.... well now I realize that at my stakes my max were a joke... nothing to even care about. Once I get a feel for how often people bet chunky green and black every hand I realized what a wimp I was back then. What was missing for me was context.... The first time I won $700ish in one shoe I was still in that mindset of being found out... but looking back at that I remember that I never bet over $60.00 the entire shoe. I was winning thorough the whole range of the count from low to high and catching the cards for my splits and doubles as well. In context now I realize that that $700ish win really was nothing more than a great positive varrience because I sure as heck did not have enough of a beat spread to be playing with an advantage. Now I wonder what that win would have been had I actually used a proper bet ramp? Yep... heat worries held me back in that regard.. It also stalled my growth as a player because had I not worried about heat I would have been able to build the mental fortitude to place max bets much earlier. I missed out on key experiences that every player needs to go though... like loosing real max bets after max bet. Or being put in a situation where you split to 4 hands then then have to double 1 or more of the splits with a real max bet. Or actually taking insurance on a hand where you have a significant amount on the table... Emotions make it far easier to take insurance for $25.00 than for $100.00. At least when that is something you are not used to.

I know all this is nothing new to the experienced players but maybe some of the new guys will identify with this and relax a bit... don't be too quick to think you are public enemy number one to the casino. In context you like me are probably of little concern to the casino's bottom line. Take moos post to heart. Learn to recognize heat and deal with it.... but also realize that for the most part the "heat" you are getting is self induced fear because you are lacking experience, perspective or are paranoid from hearing the war stories of the people playing much longer.

+1 excellent advice - Thanks to Moo and Mushin. Hits me at home. Playing at an extremely tolerant store and I've been too paranoid to blast away. Old saying goes - "No balls - no blue chips" (purple and orange these days...)

[moo321]

One more thing: if you have to use a bunch of cover to play a "good" game, it's not a good game.