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Thread: How Long Did It Take You?

  1. #1
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    How Long Did It Take You?

    This question is for the average [serious] player who started with mediocre bankrolls and not "professional" ones with $50-100K+ starting. Obviously time spent, learning curve, actual play time vs skill and expected EV and other variables come into play, but what was your estimate on reaching your first 25, 50, 75 or 100K profits?

    If you've read my past thread, I've blown up several smaller 10K rolls that i've built from scratch, but finally it seems like positive variance has finally kicked over to my side and after 150-200 hours of this bankroll, I've nearly locked my first $20K profits. How long did it take you to take a small $5-20K roll and build it into something sizable - quite subjective. 6 months, 1 year or 2 years? Part time or 5 out of 7 days? Just want to have an achievable time-frame goal for hitting my soon-to-be target of $50K profits. Yes I already looked through cvcx and know the estimated play time I have to put in, but just wondering about you guys and what time frames did you achieve it in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread View Post
    This question is for the average [serious] player who started with mediocre bankrolls and not "professional" ones with $50-100K+ starting. Obviously time spent, learning curve, actual play time vs skill and expected EV and other variables come into play, but what was your estimate on reaching your first 25, 50, 75 or 100K profits?

    If you've read my past thread, I've blown up several smaller 10K rolls that i've built from scratch, but finally it seems like positive variance has finally kicked over to my side and after 150-200 hours of this bankroll, I've nearly locked my first $20K profits. How long did it take you to take a small $5-20K roll and build it into something sizable - quite subjective. 6 months, 1 year or 2 years? Part time or 5 out of 7 days? Just want to have an achievable time-frame goal for hitting my soon-to-be target of $50K profits. Yes I already looked through cvcx and know the estimated play time I have to put in, but just wondering about you guys and what time frames did you achieve it in.
    When a $25k CD matured, the bank gave me a 1.2% in interest, I decided to try BJ more seriously about 30 months ago. First 6+ months were played poorly, no software, no real understanding, playing $10-50 stakes at 6 deck games. Luckily, I did not lose it all. Later, through help from other forum members, books, and lots of questions on the other forum, some PM's from great AP's later, I doubled the original $25k i( probably spent another $10k on vacationing) n 2 years. Now the BR is $50k, still play part time (10 hours per week average) but at $25 tables. Still have to learn a lot more.

    Not sure if I am addicted since I play poor games in local casino a lot, better games when I travel but I don't travel much because of FT job.
    Last edited by ZeeBabar; 07-21-2015 at 04:48 AM. Reason: Error

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    Asking 5 or 50 players this question, provides virtually no meaningful answers.

    The extreme volatility of BJ means the range of answers is from instantaneous
    to never.

    Sample size re: a question like this will never be adequate to provide an answer,

    due to the very high variance of the game itself, the extremes of table/game

    conditions, and variable levels of player skill, scarcity of good venues to play, etc.

    The reality is that very few people actually succeed as serious Card Counters when

    considering a span of several years.

    Sticking to computer generated answers is your sole recourse, but Y.M.M.V.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    Asking 5 or 50 players this question, provides virtually no meaningful answers.
    Especially this post of yours. Flash, you seem to have a habit of replying to posts and answering questions the OP did not ask. If you don't understand the post, ask for clarification, otherwise, just stay out of the post.

    As for me, it took about 40 years to go from a $500 bankroll to $25K today. I pulled my original $500 out years ago so all of my BR is from winnings. I have not played 21 continuously during this time period, having taken breaks at various times for various reasons.

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    The first 100k is the hardest. I think you should run a sim to get an idea of your N0 and SCORE in your primary game- that would give you a numbers kinda answer. You should be performing according to your EV in terms of hours and hands played.

    It also depends on your ROR you're comfortable with too. I started with 5k bank and played with like 40%ROR or something like that when I first started- I wasn't even sure what it was cause I didn't have a sim program. My max bet was 2x100 at the time. I did fairly well building it up to 20k bank in 4 months before I tried to move up in stakes too aggressively and busted out after 3 months. I used an additional 2k Hail Mary and it was straight up from there. I would build from small wins at first $400-500 at a time, then I set my goal to 1k at a time and so on and so forth. My bankroll shot to 100k+ in 3 months as I started moving up in stakes again- this time more conservatively. I played approximately 20-25 hours per week cause I also worked a full time job. It was stressful. Overall the first 100k took me about 7-8 months.

    I had so many dark swings and dark days in the early stages- even with 100k bank, it was hard emotionally to deal with 20-40k downswings and losing streaks- I thought about quitting so many times. I was lucky and kept at it though. It sounds like you're on the cusp of exploding into something huge just like I did!! Keep up the good work.

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    I got serious with a $10K BR about 4 years ago. I had been counting BJ and had many AP games to attack but was never very serious. It was just a fun hobby. I had been using HIOPT1/ASC and had success but knew I could do better. I tried HIOPT2?ASC when I got serious. I made good money but overtime I was about to crack the $20K mark I would drop back to a little more than I started with. Each time this happened I examined my game for mistakes in my approach. Not talking counting errors but rather game selection, entry and exit strategy, and discipline. I did come back with a stronger counting game each time though. Reading BJA3 and slowly digesting each chapter after the first read and then going to the casino to use that chapter specifically really solidified my game but With the small BR I had to play crowded conditions and at a high RoR and trip expenses were a big hurdle.

    I got frustrated and went off the reservation with my own approach. I was very cautious and only took $800 out of my BR to test going where everyone says you shouldn't. Pretty quickly my $800 had grown to over $10K. I was very cautious using all the things from Don's BJA3 and my new ideas. I was also lucky with the way losses fell. Big losses were always bookended by wins that added to more. I kept tweaking my system and the profits were adding up to $50K at about a year and a half. I had started a red to chunky green player and was now a green chipper. I was considering upping my max bet again which I did. Immediately hit with a healthy downswing which cost me a half years profit (a third of my BR) in a couple weeks. I had to draw down to my old spread and it took another 6 months to get it back. In the mean time I had a wild idea to go completely off the reservation and stop the linear approach altogether. In the next year I made another $50K despite not playing much. I upped my max bet to even higher than I had when the bad run hit because my advantage estimates are far more accurate than they were using the same info with a linear approach. The n0 to hit for that top bet was a small fraction of what it was.

    So for me it took 4 years but one was just a learning process were I treaded water with the tide and the last 3 I made my 6 figure BR from $800 seed money. I never had to touch the rest of my original BR which is now my personal emergency fund.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I got serious with a $10K BR about 4 years ago....

    you responded of post of mine indicating 20+ yrs of AP play saying you have just as much experience????

    (incidentally, i was wrong...i hv been ap bj for 3+ decades....time flys when your having fun)

  8. #8
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    20/30 years. Who cares?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    20/30 years. Who cares?
    me...if it was 20 i'd be 10 yrs younger...LOL

  10. #10
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Well, you got me there.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    I had been counting BJ and had many AP games to attack but was never very serious. It was just a fun hobby.
    This indicated decades of previous play as a not serious enough AP hobbyist. I played when AC still had ES. If you have been around a while you know how long I have been counting cards as a hobbyist. Never had a BR. Flew by the seat of my pants. Then I got serious and tried to have a real BR and manage it properly. That is what the above post is about. It is when I became more serious than throwing together what I was comfortable losing and heading to the casinos when the fancy struck. I rarely lost it but if I did it was no big deal. I had more AP plays that were better than BJ. It was all just for fun though not a business that I should take seriously. That only came recently. When asked a question about how long it took to grow a BR from play, the time I spent playing without a BR is irrelevant. That is how I answered. The quote above alluded to my previous play. I hope that is clear now. I did gloss over previous play pretty vaguely as it was irrelevant to the question being asked. People have asked me to keep it short and when I do, I get crap for leaving out irrelevant details.

    PS: I have been playing longer than you by about 5 years. I guess you can't remember ES in AC.
    Last edited by Three; 07-21-2015 at 06:09 PM.

  12. #12
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I was in AC the day it opened. I don't remember much of it, other than long lines.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I was in AC the day it opened. I don't remember much of it, other than long lines.
    What about waiting to back bet another player at Resorts. I found it amazing people would wait in line so long to be able to back bet another player. I can't remember how many back bettors they allowed per spot but it may have been more than one. It was crazy crowded!!

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