AVG Casino W/L Tolerance

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-14-2015, 12:56 PM

Sorry for posting so often, but this question has been on my mind for a while as well. What is your opinion on the average casino win/loss tolerance on table games (specifically blackjack). I'm talking about the usual $10,15 and occasional $25 on weekend minimums with $500 max bet. While my store hasn't backed me off yet, I have gone 2 x $500 several times usually leaving in the green. My face is quite recognizable but I have yet to receive any hostilities I believe.

What do you estimate my win would have to be at this casino with this background or any average casino before they start sweating me hard and the backoff/86 is imminent. $25K, 50K, 100K? Should I stop using my players card (i always play rated - but majority of the shift knows me except the 4-10am shift). Should I stop going for 2-3 months and rest it off? If I return will I just get 86'ed regardless and they just waiting for my return? Do I go back without a players card?

I only have 1 subjectively great & tolerant store, I don't want to resort to 2 hour 1 way daily/weekly grinds. I'm a part time AP. Recently I've begun trying to stop when I have a decent loss like $300-500 and give up for the session because I want to log myself as a red downer so they dont review me as all green win streaks... Doing what I can for longevity, but my profits are adding up despite the rat holing, what should I do?

**Jabberwocky** · 07-14-2015, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

Sorry for posting so often, but this question has been on my mind for a while as well. What is your opinion on the average casino win/loss tolerance on table games (specifically blackjack). I'm talking about the usual $10,15 and occasional $25 on weekend minimums with $500 max bet. While my store hasn't backed me off yet, I have gone 2 x $500 several times usually leaving in the green. My face is quite recognizable but I have yet to receive any hostilities I believe.

What do you estimate my win would have to be at this casino with this background or any average casino before they start sweating me hard and the backoff/86 is imminent. $25K, 50K, 100K? Should I stop using my players card (i always play rated - but majority of the shift knows me except the 4-10am shift). Should I stop going for 2-3 months and rest it off? If I return will I just get 86'ed regardless and they just waiting for my return? Do I go back without a players card?

I only have 1 subjectively great & tolerant store, I don't want to resort to 2 hour 1 way daily/weekly grinds. I'm a part time AP. Recently I've begun trying to stop when I have a decent loss like $300-500 and give up for the session because I want to log myself as a red downer so they dont review me as all green win streaks... Doing what I can for longevity, but my profits are adding up despite the rat holing, what should I do?

Spreading to 2x$500 you consider to be safe?
"What a revolting development that is!" - Riley

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-14-2015, 04:50 PM

My typical spread is [$10 to $300] or [2x$20 to 2x$300]. They have been quite accommodating to this action as it is my norm - although a few times with different floor managers who haven't frequently seen my face or my action - have requested other floor members to gather and inspect my play - which I then probably got protected by other floor members "oh he's a reg - that's just how he plays" or something along those lines. Rarely do I table max unless I feel like it fits my image of chasing - which this scenario was.

On to what I really want to ask - any estimation on what a typical casino offering $10 min to $500 max with my type of action - the tolerance they have. How much money earned is finally too much. $25K 50K or 100K more or less? Any thoughts or idea

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-14-2015, 05:00 PM

This is a Low End Casino.

I strongly suspect that a $10,000

cumulative win will get you 86'd.

"Rat-holing" is self-destructive.

You're pretending that the E I T S is blind !

Your spread is way too damn aggressive.

Your GREED will be your undoing !

Spread $10 to $125 and be a happy player.

I have coached many a player and I have seen this

self-destructive behavior more times than I can count.

Some major casinos (at least in the East) are 86'ing

Basic Strategy players if they win ANYTHING over an

extended period of time. These are casinos that gladly

accept $5,000 wagers on multiple hands.

It has fascinated me for years how clearly GREED is what

"separates the winners from the losers" in the A.P. World.

Perceived GREED is what motivates Casino Brass to 86.

p.s. You mention "… the 4-10am shift" A Six hour shift ?

**Jabberwocky** · 07-14-2015, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

My typical spread is [$10 to $300] or [2x$20 to 2x$300]. They have been quite accommodating to this action as it is my norm - although a few times with different floor managers who haven't frequently seen my face or my action - have requested other floor members to gather and inspect my play - which I then probably got protected by other floor members "oh he's a reg - that's just how he plays" or something along those lines. Rarely do I table max unless I feel like it fits my image of chasing - which this scenario was.

On to what I really want to ask - any estimation on what a typical casino offering $10 min to $500 max with my type of action - the tolerance they have. How much money earned is finally too much. $25K 50K or 100K more or less? Any thoughts or idea

With a table limit of $500, I would be terrified to walk out with anything more than $5K profit.

**Three** · 07-14-2015, 05:22 PM

Yeah. I got worried about that once. I split and doubled my supermax bet to 10 bets and swept them. I crushed the next rounds but the end of the shoe the casino got enough back that it wasn't a problem.

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-14-2015, 09:17 PM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

This is a Low End Casino.

I strongly suspect that a $10,000

cumulative win will get you 86'd.

"Rat-holing" is self-destructive.

-------------------

It has fascinated me for years how clearly GREED is what

"separates the winners from the losers" in the A.P. World.

Perceived GREED is what motivates Casino Brass to 86.

p.s. You mention "… the 4-10am shift" A Six hour shift ?

So what do you suggest I do if my win rate is already far beyond that threshold. Perhaps their tolerance is $50K and it'll take a while longer to reach that, but eventually I will. Then what is my course of action? Take a few months break, hope they forget about my face, and go back play unrated for less and under the radar? Or do I return with my players card and bet the same as before (but will resume adding profits to my winning player's card). Or is all hope lost, I've pretty much exhausted my name in that casino and all I can hope for is to play at odd times as a refusal? [also assuming my betting is far less than before - but what can we do]

I think I'm also using the term shift wrong, but generally I tombstone my store - a lot less as of late (I've been doing 45-1 hour session per shoe), but I used to sit there long enough to see 2 different floor managers. They pass on their info and then they watch me for the next several hours. What I mean is like I've never gone to the 4am-10am shift, so whoever is working then, my face will be new to them.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 07-15-2015, 06:49 AM

I would stop playing locally for (at minimum) one year;

and upon returning spread less and bet less.

Focus on traveling for the next year.

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-15-2015, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash

I would stop playing locally for (at minimum) one year;

and upon returning spread less and bet less.

When you do return, would you be playing rated or as a refusal? And a quick why if you don't mind

**Three** · 07-15-2015, 11:45 AM

Originally Posted by 20 to 1 Spread

When you do return, would you be playing rated or as a refusal? And a quick why if you don't mind

If they know your name it is burned as it is in their computer. Use your name and your past will return to haunt you. If they really wanted your name they probably have it whether you played as a refusal or rated. So don't play rated when you return.

**Shadowless** · 07-15-2015, 09:05 PM

Things that are NOT being said in meetings:

"We've identified him as an advantage player who will win in the long run, but since he hasn't quite won over X amount yet, we'll continue to let him play until he does."

"He's back. We haven't seen him in about year. Surveillance reviewed his play and found that he always moved his money with the count with the exception of a few silly cover plays and bets that insulted the surveillance team's intelligence. Since he took time off, I guess we'll let him play and evaluate him again to see if he still has what it takes to win."

"He always seems to book losses or break even, but he always makes the right decisions. I guess we'll let him play until he starts winning."

Once surveillance determines that you're an advantage player, that's the end of it.

**20 to 1 Spread** · 07-15-2015, 09:14 PM

Originally Posted by Shadowless

Once surveillance determines that you're an advantage player, that's the end of it.

However I don't believe I've been phoned to EITS yet. The one time that I got super heat at my local was 4-5 floorman (2 sees me a lot, 1 is really cool with me, and the 1 new woman is causing trouble for me and pointing out my spread and how it moves) - they all came around the table one at a time and checked out my 2 x $20 min bet..... I also from the "cool guy" that something about notifying someone if I go above X amount - I believe with my slightly better knowledge now, it was probably their "pain threshold" of like $5K profit in a session as someone once stated (that I should sweat leaving with that amount of profit).

I guess taking time off and going back unrated is all I can do - it's my only local store so my only options now are to go during the 4am-10am times and play unrated with staff that doesn't know me - or I go back play rated during my usual time and just play a lot less with the same amount of rat holing till my perceived losses add up. Plausible to rat hole my wins into the neg if I put in enough time? The EV/Hourly will be sad compared to before, but it beats being banned.

I know I should travel, but I'm currently a part time AP.

**biggg** · 07-16-2015, 11:27 AM

I mean the point of playing is to win. The reality of this is that if you play a strong game you are going to be figured out. It is just too obvious. If you can't deal with traveling to find games you should find some other type of advantage play.

Of course lifetime win is not going to be acceptable so your choices are to lose on purpose or rathole. You can easily rathole 2 greens an hour playing those stakes which is your EV. There are plenty of casinos that don't waste their time on counters without a big lifetime win...they could even know you were counting and would not care. By the way they are smart to work this way as there is no way it's worth paying people to back off red and green chip counters when there is tons of worse stuff to worry about. Rat holing absolutely does work just come back a couple greens short on a bathroom break when you have a ton of green.