Losing streak - PLEASE HELP

[mickeymouse]

You have probably heard from me previously in these forums - it has been a while since I last posted. I was going through a particularly long and brutal losing streak, but knowing the math is theoretically in my favour, I have continued playing. I recovered from my previous losing streak and I believed that I would recover from this one too.

I have bad news. My losing streak has continued and relative to where I started playing, back in January, I am now nearly $2,000 in the hole. This represents a $10,500 downswing since the last all-time high achieved in early May. There has been very few positive phases unlike the last losing streak, I am just steadily losing money. I have not gone on tilt, I memorize all my indices, and, with the casino introducing a number of new dealers, penetration has actually IMPROVED. But it is just not working out.

Over the last 38 sessions, I have still won more sessions than I have lost, but the losses have been far bigger than the wins. In those 38 sessions I have not had a single five-session run which was positive. That means that my overall score at any given point in the last 33 sessions is worse than five sessions earlier.

The problem is not with the negative and neutral counts where I am doing at least as well as expected (and I wong out pretty aggressively unless playing heads-up, and none of the pit staff ever care about that). I just keep getting slaughtered at the high counts (four above neutral and above). I just keep getting dealt stiff hands and bust, and when I don't, the dealer just keeps on drawing a miraculous five to get 21, time and time again. It has got to the point where I don't look forward to the count getting high anymore. When I am playing with one or two other players, they seem to ALWAYS get the better hands and not bust on their stiff hands while I almost INVARIABLY get the worst hand and bust. And dealer 21's seem to only ever occur on my 20's and never my trash hands or busts.

As you're probably aware earlier, I play mostly Australian pontoon. I have memorized Katarina Walker's strategy and indices. It is a 8-deck shoe with a penetration of 90%+. I usually play heads-up or with one or two other players. My betting spread is as follows:

TC -5 to -4, $10; TC -3, $20; TC -2, 2x$30, TC -1, 2x$60, TC 0, 2x$80, TC 1, 2x$100, TC2 or more, 2x125 (max).

I know that playing heads-up I should play one box to increase the number of hands at a favourable count, but I am betting two boxes to reduce variation. I have tried to play one box, with disastrous consequences - I just lost every hand and my entire session bankroll after six hands.

According to my calculations the TC should be zero or better about 6.3% of all hands. Because of all the liberal rules (automatic win on 21, double on any number of cards, late surrender and early surrender after doubling), it should be obvious that under those circumstances the player has the edge. Yet over these 38 sessions, I have consistently lost 6% of the total amount wagered on those hands where the TC is zero and above. That's basically worse than double zero roulette.

I have mixed up my play with regular blackjack also. The rules here are double on 9-11 only, six decks, no surrender, DAS, split to 3 hands for a house advantage of 0.51% off the top (cf. 0.38% in Pontoon). It represents only 10-15% of my total play. The pit has never given me any heat on regular blackjack - guess what - I have net-won exactly one of my last 29 hands when the true count is +4 or better (bet of 2x$100).

I do not need to hear any condescending advice on whether the conditions are bad. The fact remains that these are the best available conditions available in my continent and region. There is no casino within a five hour plane flight that will give better conditions than this. In my country gaming is highly regulated and it would be extremely unlikely for the house to cheat. I have not checked every session but in the many dozens of times I have checked the cards laid on the table there has never been a card missing from the shoe.

I wanted to know if any of you can estimate what is the probability of such a bad run occurring given fair rules. I have not come close to losing what I was prepared to lose when I started, but this is obviously very demoralizing. Thank you all for your time and patience and I hope your sessions are profitable.

[NotEnoughHeat]

If you are using your bankroll for both regular blackjack and australian pontoon you should probably estimate your mix of action, otherwise I don't think it's really possible to answer your question (not that I'm offering). That is, how much blackjack have you played compared to australian pontoon. If you use multiple ramps in each (perhaps you play multiple stake levels or a variety of rule sets), you should also state how much you use each.

[mickeymouse]

I play probably 90/10 Australian pontoon to regular blackjack. My venue only has shoe games on BJ on two nights a week and it is very difficult to get a table to play heads up or only one other player. Plus the side bet on pairs slows down the game too much when there's someone else playing.

On regular BJ my ramp is as follows:
<-1, wong out; -1 to +2, $10 +2, 2x$25, +3, 2x$50, +4, 2x$75, +5 or more, 2x$100.

[Gramazeka]

Do you have BJRM?

[Fireman]

One problem may be that you are comparing your current bankroll to your all-time high. You were obviously on an upswing from Jan until May and are now feeling the effects of a negative variation. I have been through these downturns and would swear that my game was rotten or the casinos were cheating. I would recommend taking a long-term view and compare your current bankroll to when you started playing in January. "Breaking even" is not what I strive for, but it could be a lot worse.

As for your betting ramp and the types of games that you are playing, maybe someone else can give you input. I would say that because your bankroll has been diminished, you need to adjust (lower) you betting scale or risk a greater chance of ruin.

[Masterhoudini]

Honestly, c'est la vie. It's the nature of the business. I'm sure many on this site have weathered far worse losing streaks, 200, 300+ hour ones. You're only down about 40 max bets, that's not really that much. It seems that way and its demoralizing etc. but you just have to work through it. If it's any consolation, I've been down 120 max bets before representing 120k at one point and made it all back and more to give you some perspective. All I can say is keep playing, or take a break and regroup. It is a disgusting business sometimes, but the math always prevails.

You may want to consider resizing your bankroll if this losing streak has diminished your bankroll.

[moo321]

Do you have BJRM?

Is that better for SP21? Or does it have any relevant features that CVData doesn't?

[moo321]

OP, I rarely say this, but you are using the wrong count for that game. Hi Lo is much worse than the "Monkey Count," which is balanced by counting the Ace -2.

[Jabberwocky]

OP, I rarely say this, but you are using the wrong count for that game. Hi Lo is much worse than the "Monkey Count," which is balanced by counting the Ace -2.

I believe it was invented by automatic monkey. It's still a weakie. I have quit using it.

[Three]

I believe it was invented by automatic monkey. It's still a weakie. I have quit using it.

Agreed. This is a game for inventive ace neutral approaches with a side count of aces. I like a balanced ace side count for these games. The most valuable bonus in this game is not BJ. It is the 5 card multi-card bonus. You need to bet those ace rich decks properly and then play those stiff hands very strongly to get the value out of this bonus. Different indices for different number of cards. Soft doubling except fort a few hands is a waste of money. You are almost certainly drawing to a bonus draw if you miss a strong hand the first with the ace as an 11. The same for doubling 11 and even 10 against a card you will surrender against. 3 card doubles have you drawing to a bonus if you don't surrender. 4 card hands you are already drawing for a 3:2 bonus with no added risk. Then instead of rescuing a stiff your are hitting for a 2:1 payoff and then a 3:1 payoff. Not only are you not risking the extra money but your EV is much higher.

To the OP: I would suspect you are either making counting mistakes or your weak ace reckoned count is leaving to much bonus potential on the table. The strategy is very very complicated to beat this game hard. The count used should be as well.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"The Secret Monkey Count" with an aggressive spread will "get the money" particularly in a H17 game.

The E.O.R. For the Ace is considerably reduced in the H17 game when compared to the S17 game.

While it may sound "out of character" coming from me, the utter simplicity of this count makes it very

well suited to Span21 because the complexity of Spanish21 is far greater than nearly everyone thinks it is.

I will give a few examples to illustrate the complexity:

You hold a HARD 17 and the dealer flips up an Ace.

This is the ONLY hand matchup that a Basic Strategist surrenders.

It is the worst possible hand matchup in this game !!

With a TC of +2 or above I stand

With a TC of -2 or less I hit

With a TC of between these extremes [-1 to +1] I surrender.

Got a pair of 9's when the dealer shows an Ace? I split unless Aces are in deficit.

Insurance? I very very rarely take it -- as my Index for this is over +12 !

You get a hand of 15 [7 and 8 of Spades]. The dealer shows a 6 - you hit.

You have a 6 card 17 and the dealer shows a HIGH card. - you hit.

You have doubled and your hand becomes a stiff. Dealer shows a 7. Do you rescue ? Only against an Ace.

To get to that point you originally had 11. Not a good Risk Averse move.

You have a pair of 4's and the dealer is stiff. Do you split? No! Do you double? No!

You have a 3 card 11 and you are facing a 9. Do you double? No.

EDIT: Corrected TYPO to read:

You hold a HARD 17 and the dealer flips up an Ace.

[Gramazeka]

Is that better for SP21? Or does it have any relevant features that CVData doesn't?

Yes, the second...Function Random Walk screen (typical sessions on your way to the long run).

[Three]

You hold a Soft 18 and the dealer flips up an Ace.

Typo alert.