Testing the waters with my blackjack model

[Health_Actuary]

Hi guys,

I'm brand new here. I've been studying blackjack for a couple years now, and developed a model to analyze the game and various counting strategies. I'm wondering if this would be of interest to the blackjack community, or if this is already out there. I know CVCX is in existence, but I haven't gotten a chance to use it. To my understanding my model is a bit different from that tool. The model is really customizable, but here is the main function:

Model Input

• Game parameters and # of sims
• Playing strategy at various counts and deck penetration, or default to highest expected value based on remaining deck composition
• Betting strategy based on count, deck penetration, previous bets/outcomes
• Any number of counting strategies (plus or minus any real number at each card), alongside any common strats I could find online

Model Output

• Database of each game including outcome, cards played, count, etc.

Analysis
The data is really rich, so pretty much any desired analysis of the game is possible. Currently I've been looking at plots of the edge vs. count. Here is an example of about half a million simulations:

http://i.imgur.com/06lvm3n.png

These are two random counting strategies I found online. Red line is the scaled % of hands at these counts. Blue line is success rate (edge). This is without varying bets (i.e. starting bet of 1 every time). I interpret "m" as the better strategy here. What you're looking for in a counting strategy is a wider spread of counts producing an expected return above 0. You can see that it jumps up nicely between 6 and 7. The default here (hi-lo) looks like it's only in your favor once you get past 10, at which point it jumps up. This is harder to take advantage of in a casino, as the optimal betting strategy here would be betting minimum until you get to +10, then sharply increasing your bet, which is a red flag to the pit boss.

Anyway, these are just some examples. The model is fully functional, but I still need to talk my tech guy about helping with streamlining the database loading. Or maybe I should just learn to use visual studios.

Let me know what you guys think, if you have any comments, questions, suggestions.

Thanks!

[Norm]

Your purpose and expected result may not be clear enough for anyone to respond.

[Health_Actuary]

Questions:
1. Has this been done? Am I wasting my time?
2. Do you think this would be helpful to blackjack players?
3. Any comments or recommendations?

[Norm]

Not sure what you're aiming to do. Click on https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-online-calculators.htm and click on the top Launch button.

[Health_Actuary]

I see. Thanks for the link. What I gather is that mine is a very different product - much more customizable and produces richer data for more in-depth analyses. I plan to use it to perfect a playing strategy and see if I can get some gains. Still welcome to any feedback though.

[Norm]

See https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-simulator.htm. It may give you an idea of what you need to support.

You can download the demo of CVData V5.0 from https://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm.

[Stealth]

Hi H_A,

Welcome to the forum.

At the risk of seeming presumptuous, I would point out the "Norm" is the author of a suite of software for analysis of blackjack that has no equal that I have found. I believe these systems are regarded as the gold standard by the blackjack AP community.

You would be well advised to buy CVCX and CVData and understand their scope and use before you depart on a re-invention of sorts.

Now, I recognize that I do not have a clear view of what you are intending to accomplish and I am not trying to dissuade your enthusiasm, just want to point out that a lot of water has gone under that bridge.

Hope this helps.

Stealth

[Health_Actuary]

Thanks for letting me know, I had no idea Norm is the author. And yeah, maybe I will get the program to try it out. I'm mostly doing this to conduct my own study, for fun.