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Thread: Question for the full time pros or part timers...

  1. #1


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    Question for the full time pros or part timers...

    On average, how many shoes would you estimate that you play per session? For simplicities sake, you can count shoes that you wong in/out of as whole shoes. Please indicate whether you play 6 or 8 deck. Not interested in your single/double deck play.

    I'm having trouble getting through 6 eight deck shoes without feeling fatigued so I'm curious where others stand.

  2. #2
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    Here is an important tip:

    Surveillance normally wants to do their "skill check" on your play of 3 shoes.

    If in 2 of 3 shoes you are "moving your money with the count." you are 86'd.

  3. #3


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    So you're saying I should limit my sessions to one shoe due to the off-chance that surveillance might count down a $150 average bettor? I'm actually really confused by that reply.
    Last edited by chrisjs87; 06-23-2015 at 06:33 AM.

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    Since this seems to be a fatigue question, play as long as you are at your peak game. If you fatigue easily you can use that to your advantage by tailoring a wonging style or other rituals that maximize the time you can spend at peak and make more peak time. Bathroom breaks, moving to nearby other playing options, meal breaks or just wonging out and pursuing other AP plays for a while. You can use it as a valid excuse to avoid crowding and other detrimental conditions like a slow game or a dealer that gives horrible pen. The idea is to play the best game YOU can play.

    Heat considerations will vary greatly by casino. I think Flash was referring to the great games he plays that almost always come with increased game protection.

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    I measure my win-rate by shoes played, so I try to avoid time-outs, bathroom breaks, or zen sessions as much as possible. I generally don't even wong out unless I have a clear shot(less than 5 minute wait) at getting a seat at a superior alternative.

    I kind of want to hear people say, "8 shoes?! What are you feeble? I play 30 shoes a session average! get on my level!" At least that would be some inspiration that maybe as time progresses I'll be able to accurately complete more shoes per session.

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    My play depends on what I find. I might not play any shoes or play many. If I get tired I find other AP opportunities to exploit to give my brain a break. I measure my win-rate in dollars and find the key to maximizing that is to avoid playing much of the time. Playing just to play increases variance in a huge way. You are exposing yourself for little gain rather than exposing yourself when you will approach your n0 the fastest. The key to success is a low N0 and playing when you can get the most hands in and have the biggest advantage. It is also to only play at your peak. That means knowing your biorhythms to both play when you are at peak and avoid play went your brain takes on of its expected waking siestas. Timing play to hit when tables are opening and other tricks to avoid crowding increases game speed so you can reach n0 faster. There is a lot of scouting to mapping out the most efficient way to extract money from the casino. You don't just show up and play a bunch of shoes willy nilly.

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    "I might not play any shoes or play many."

    Which takes me back to my original question of how many shoes -on average- will you play in a session?

    You say you measure your win-rate in dollars. Dollars per what? Hour? Do you subtract the time spent mapping, scouting, breaking from your hourly? Or is it dollars in your pocket when you walk out of the casino? That is variance. What do you mean when you say you measure your win-rate in dollars?

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    Chrisjs87,

    I said: Surveillance normally wants to do their "skill check" on your play of 3 shoes.

    If in 2 of 3 shoes you are "moving your money with the count." you are 86'd."


    i will now add to that; as you do not understand, or my reply was poor.

    Once you have "exposed" your spread - you are well-advised to leave the "scene of the crime"

    That means this: Let's say you spread 12-1 BUT you have played 4 shoes before going to 8-1.

    You have NOT "exposed" your
    bet spread yet, have you ? You may continue if you like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chrisjs87 View Post
    What do you mean when you say you measure your win-rate in dollars?
    It is that I measure it in expected win in dollars. If I play 3 shoes that means nothing. If it were 3 shoes at a nice advantage I expect to win a lot. If they were 3 shoes of waiting bets I expect to lose. If I go to the casino and play for 8 hours, whether scouting or whatever, my expectation is defined by the advantage bets I got down. It is my job to find a way to maximize my expectation. Often that means not playing and doing some other AP activity until I get something that will give me a good expectation. I hope you are following that because I am not sure how else to explain it. I could play 1/2 a shoe and have much higher expected win than if I played 8 shoes. I measure the difference in expectation in dollars. I know what conditions are going to most likely result in a lot of exposure for little or even negative EV and what conditions will likely give me a high expectation. I play accordingly. I don't care what my results are. If I get enough bets down eventually my results for those big bets will approach EV. I will win a bunch of big bets and lose a bunch of big bets on the way to the long run and it doesn't matter to me how they are grouped.

  10. #10
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    Answer to OP question: Average 2 shoes per session. I play very short sessions. I have exit triggers of: TC -1.5 to -2, shuffle after showing spread, if neither of first two has occurred after 3 shoes even if haven't shown spread.

    About measuring by shoes played: I did this early on in my career. Problem was quite a big difference between a shoe played heads up and a shoe played with a near full table. As much as 64 rounds vs 17 or 18 rounds. I know we can average these out but that's a huge range.

    Later I tracked my results by time, but my very short sessions style of play had me adding up all sorts of small bits of time, from as short as a couple minutes.

    Finally I settled on rounds played.....because in the end that is what really matters. Estimating as best I can.

    As far as win rate. It should be universal: Per 100 rounds played. Whether it takes 2 hours to get that 100 rounds of 25 minutes (heads up). Once you have settled on this, you then start focusing on games and what you can do to get that 100 rounds quicker.
    Last edited by KJ; 06-23-2015 at 02:12 PM.

  11. #11


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    From what I can tell, T3 is trying to dissuade you from measuring you win rate by shoe. The reasoning might be that the results you get from an individual shoe is highly variable. You may have a shoe that is very tame in terms of the count and you happen to end it pretty close to break even on your waiting bets with no bets at an advantage. On the other hand, the count can be in a similar position but you lose 10 units instead. Then we look at extreme high counts and it is easy to win or lose 30-40 units depending on your spread. However take what I just said with a grain of salt. What I said might be true for the most part, but I am not a statistician, so the conclusion I imply (that it is a bad idea to measure win rate by shoe) might not follow.

    When T3 says he measures his win rate dollars, I presume he means dollars per hour. He tries to maximize his dollar for his time, but he also values low N0 (ie. volatility/variance).
    Last edited by NotEnoughHeat; 06-23-2015 at 02:15 PM.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    From what I can tell, T3 is trying to dissuade you from measuring you win rate by shoe. The reasoning might be that the results you get from an individual shoe is highly variable. You may have a shoe that is very tame in terms of the count and you happen to end it pretty close to break even on your waiting bets with no bets at an advantage. On the other hand, the count can be in a similar position but you lose 10 units instead. Then we look at extreme high counts and it is easy to win or lose 30-40 units depending on your spread. However take what I just said with a grain of salt. What I said might be true for the most part, but I am not a statistician, so the conclusion I imply (that it is a bad idea to measure win rate by shoe) might not follow.

    When T3 says he measures his win rate dollars, I presume he means dollars per hour. He tries to maximize his dollar for his time, but he also values low N0 (ie. volatility/variance).
    OK, I see where the confusion is coming in. I worded my original statement very poorly. I didn't mean profit per individual shoe; I meant EV per shoe. I ran a 200,000,000 round simulation of my strategy and calculated ( [units won / total shoes played] * betting unit) a "win per shoe" rate of $16.67. Unless my calculation method is incorrect, I don't see how any other method could be more accurate and practical than this.
    Last edited by chrisjs87; 06-24-2015 at 05:19 AM.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Answer to OP question: Average 2 shoes per session. I play very short sessions. I have exit triggers of: TC -1.5 to -2, shuffle after showing spread, if neither of first two has occurred after 3 shoes even if haven't shown spread.
    Thank you for being the only one to just simply answer my simple question.

    About measuring by shoes played: I did this early on in my career. Problem was quite a big difference between a shoe played heads up and a shoe played with a near full table. As much as 64 rounds vs 17 or 18 rounds. I know we can average these out but that's a huge range.
    Right, with each additional player the expected win per shoe drops(loss of playable rounds), but you end up with more played shoes. If you know what the range of rounds will be in a given shoe with X number of players, wouldn't the result of measuring profit per shoe be essentially the same as measuring by estimated rounds played? How is your way more useful in a practical sense? I'm not asking this in a combative way, I'm actually curious.
    Last edited by chrisjs87; 06-24-2015 at 06:34 AM.

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