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Thread: Little help with bet sizing/spred I should be using.

  1. #1


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    Little help with bet sizing/spred I should be using.

    Ive just starting working on counting using hi-lo strategy and so far using casino verite blackjack simulator I can count a 6 deck shoe pretty accurately. Now that I'm getting better at counting I'm starting to move onto how big bets should be. I know once true count goes up my bets should go up, but I need to know exactly how much. And also since my bankroll is going to be fairly small I want to keep ROR as low as possible because I don't want to go broke before my bankroll starts to grow. When I do start playing for real money, its probably going to be $5 min and only I want to start with around $1000 BR. Is this even advisable or will the ROR just be too high and ill most likely go broke? Starting with a bigger bankroll for me just isn't feasible. I could save money and start with a bigger bankroll but it would take me quite a while to save up much more. So I know no matter what I do my ROR is going to be fairly high unless I wait 10 years and start with a $10,000 BR. But... I don't want to wait so yea I guess I'm willing/have to live with having a high ROR. Now back to original question... how big my spread/bets should be. My goal is to make a profit but also keep ROR at a reasonable number. I guess I'm looking for a little help finding the sweet spot. Also I need a little help interpreting the following:
    True Count +2 or below: Amount to Bet = Table Minimum
    True Count +2 or above: Amount to Bet = True Count * Betting
    (I'm getting this from blackjackgeeks.com/cardcounting/betting.php (the second graph on this page)
    wouldn't this mean. take the TC multiplied by your 1 unit? and if i'm playing $5 min, 1 unit = $5? wouldn't that mean for example TC is at 4, I would do 4(TC)*$5(units) = $20 ?? But the graph they give shows different
    Graph shows. (TC 1 or below = 5) (TC = 2 = 25) (TC = 3 =50) (TC = 4 =75) and it goes up 25 for every TC point all the way up to 10 being 225.

    From what I'm reading the more the advantage (higher the TC) the more I want to bet. This makes sense but also if you have a limited bankroll this would most certainly expose you to a great amount of volatility/ROR correct?

    I need someone to give me an easy answer to how much to bet per TC point. (easy formula I can use on the go) Say my TC is at 6. What do I do to figure how big my bet should be if I'm playing $5 min table with $1000 BR? Or do I just forget how much my BR is and say fuck it? Odds are in my favor so I'm going to put as much down as I can? Anyway. quick formula to use on the go to calculate bet size according to TC please and thank you!

    [Admin Edit: Link to bad site broken]
    Last edited by Norm; 06-17-2015 at 05:02 AM.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by DickFer View Post
    I can count a 6 deck shoe pretty accurately.
    Strive to be 100% accurate 100% of the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by DickFer View Post
    And also since my bankroll is going to be fairly small I want to keep ROR as low as possible because I don't want to go broke before my bankroll starts to grow. When I do start playing for real money, its probably going to be $5 min and only I want to start with around $1000 BR.
    It's not possible to have your RoR any lower with a 200 unit bankroll since the table minimums don't go lower than $5 without having bad rules and playing conditions.
    What you can do is wong in/out. You shouldn't be playing all hands in a 6D game since you only have 200 units to work with.

    Quote Originally Posted by DickFer View Post
    I need someone to give me an easy answer to how much to bet per TC point. (easy formula I can use on the go) Say my TC is at 6. What do I do to figure how big my bet should be if I'm playing $5 min table with $1000 BR?
    You would be overbetting your bankroll if you were following that betting schedule.

    With a $1,000 bankroll, your full Kelly unit is $3.75.
    Since you want to keep RoR as low as possible, you might consider doing half or quarter Kelly.
    80% Kelly would be $3, which is an easier number to work with.

    Equation would be: (TC-1) * $3
    So at a TC of 6, you would bet $15.

    Basically $3 per true count over 1.

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    wouldn't I end up going broke by betting so small because I'm not taking advantage of my advantage enough? know what i'm saying? I think I read you're only at an advantage 18% of the time. So if I'm not taking advantage of that advantage enough wouldn't it cripple me causing me eventually to go broke? and even if I do profit wouldn't it be so small it wouldn't be worth the time? pennies per hour? Just questions running through my mind . I'm just getting started hehe. I don't know math very good but just from plugging numbers into calculators and stuff it seems like if you don't start with a pretty large bankroll you're just throwing your money away/wasting your time. Going to look into this Kelly thing. Thanks for reply

    also I plan on continuing to keep practicing counting until its so easy I don't even have to think about it. It's getting easier and i'm getting more accurate the more games I play. This casino verite app is really helpful.
    Last edited by DickFer; 06-17-2015 at 03:27 AM.

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    This doesn't seem to be so cut and dry as I thought, going to take me quite a while to understand how much I should be betting and when. I'll be back in 5 years when my research is done lol.

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    A 13.5 RoR is a high RoR but offers optimal BR growth (full kelly). Most try to play with a RoR of 5% (1/2 kelly) or less. Risk is an exponential function. If possible play no more than 13.5% RoR. If you can add regularly to your BR look into replenishable BR theory. If money will be added to your BR in the near future you can play more aggressively with the same RoR. You are best off backcounting and only playing positive expectation counts. A really small BR would flat bet this strategy but a small spread (1-3) might help depending on your situation.

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    Thanks so much for reply Tthree!!!! very helpful!!

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    One question, if you are back counting isn't the casino instantly going to know what you're doing and not let you play? There's only 2 casinos in my area and they're not very busy(only couple BJ tables going). They would instantly spot you standing around tables just watching.

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    Depending on the casino's tolerance and you bet level they will act. Most larger casinos won't sweat your small action. Some people are better than others at making this look natural. I never liked doing it and only did it sparingly but I don't blend into a crowd very well. I did pretty well when I did it. Sometimes limits would go up more than I was comfortable playing when I had a small BR. Other times I would just be walking by a table or waiting for someone and just watch. Of course if the count got good I wouldn't stand there and do nothing. I made a couple thousand in a crap game I wouldn't waste my time with while waiting to meet someone. I was standing next to this H17 game (not good in my region) and watching the count get higher and higher until I jumped in. Most of it was made on the lucky ladies side bet (a side bet that pays you if you get a starting hand of 20). I played two spots for a half dozen rounds or so and got 20's on all but one hand. The only payout for the side bet I didn't hit was the paired queen of hearts. Then the cut card came out and I left the table.

    You will really need to mix it up some most likely. Perhaps one that has backcounted a lot can answer this question with a better knowledge of what to expect.

  10. #10
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    I had to break a couple links as I don't want to guide people to bad information. People can still find the pages by copying the urls. Unfortunately, 99% of what you read about gaming on the web is utter nonsense.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Presuming that mid-shoe entry is permitted, you will find that a

    crucial factor is the density of players and the number of open tables.

    You'll not likely get away with Back-Counting if there is only one pit.

    If the joint is jumping, empty seats are scarce, you will spend a lot of time doing nothing.

    If it is 7:00 a.m. on a Tuesday and the place is empty, you'll be observed

    as there is nothing else for the staff (and EYE) to watch.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by DickFer View Post
    There's only 2 casinos in my area and they're not very busy(only couple BJ tables going). They would instantly spot you standing around tables just watching.
    But will they care?

    So long as you're not pissing off their valuable civilian players too much, and not insulting the staff, why would they throw you out? It's not like you're going to cost them a lot of money, and it's bad PR to be throwing out people without a good reason.

    There may be better plays available on a small bankroll.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

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    I think one might stop you from playing and the other probably wouldn't care. The busier one probably wouldn't care. I really don't think it would be worth it though to back count(could take hours) and then sit down and bet 5,10,15,20 dollars(small bank roll) and hope to win a hand or two. I would be making like 10 cents an hour doing that lol. I'm really starting to think BJ isn't worth playing unless you have a 10k+ BR. Big enough to make a decent profit and also big enough where the ROR is low.

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